During the week starting on January 22, 2025, Russia’s export tax on wheat will be 4,699.6 rubles/ton (up from 4,245 rubles the previous week). The export tax on barley will be 3,101.9 rubles/ton (up from 2,542.9 rubles), and the export tax on corn will be 5,041.7 rubles/ton (up from 4,436.4 rubles).

Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for the 2025/26 EU soft wheat production to 127.2 million tons (from 126.6 million tons in the previous estimate), which is significantly higher than the 2024/25 figure. The barley production forecast has also been raised to 50.5 million tons, while the corn production is expected to reach 60.3 million tons (-3.1% compared to the previous year).

In its January report, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts the 2024/25 global corn production at 1,218 million tons (-7 million from November and -12 million from 2023/24). The U.S. corn production is projected at 377.6 million tons (down from 384.6 million in November and 389.7 million in 2023/24), China's corn production is expected at 294.9 million tons (down from 296 million), and the EU’s corn production at 60 million tons (up from 58.1 million). Corn imports in the EU are expected to reach 20.2 million tons. Global corn consumption for the season is projected at 1,239 million tons (+13 million from 2023/24). Global corn exports are estimated at 181.6 million tons (up from 180.7 million), with U.S. corn exports at 62.2 million tons (+2.2 million), Ukraine exports at 22.2 million tons, and Brazil exports at 40 million tons (-2 million). Global ending stocks of corn in 2024/25 are projected at 271.9 million tons, marking the lowest level in the last 10 years.

In its January report, the IGC also forecasts global grain production at 2,304.6 million tons (+6.7 million from November). The wheat production is expected to reach 796.3 million tons (+0.2 million). Russia’s total grain production is forecasted at 116.1 million tons (-1 million), with wheat production at 81.3 million tons (-0.5 million). Russia’s grain exports are expected to be 50 million tons (-2.3 million), including 43.7 million tons of wheat (-0.5 million). The EU grain production is projected at 259 million tons (+0.6 million), including 119.5 million tons of wheat. Kazakhstan’s grain production remains unchanged at 22.9 million tons, including 18 million tons of wheat, with total grain exports expected at 11.9 million tons (including 10.3 million tons of wheat). Ukraine’s grain production is estimated at 59.5 million tons (+0.5 million), including 25.4 million tons of wheat, with grain exports expected at 42 million tons (+1.9 million), including 17.4 million tons of wheat (+1.2 million). Ukraine’s corn production is projected at 26.5 million tons (+0.5 million), with exports reaching 22.2 million tons.

According to market operators, a group of importers in Thailand has purchased 195,000 tons of feed wheat. The first batch of 67,000 tons will be supplied by ETG from either the U.S. or Australia at a price of 258.99 USD/ton C&F. The second batch of 63,000 tons will come from Cargill, sourced from Australia, at 259.89 USD/ton C&F, while the third batch of 65,000 tons will be provided by ADM, also from Australia, at 258.99 USD/ton C&F. Deliveries are scheduled for May–June.

Egypt's state agency Mostakbal Misr has signed contracts for the supply of wheat from European countries, with several transactions structured as barter deals. In 2024, Egypt imported 14.7 million tons of wheat, with Russia accounting for 74.3% of total imports.