The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0416. The price of US WTI light crude oil declined to 74.62 USD per barrel.
Oil prices fell on Thursday amid uncertainty over how the proposed tariffs and energy policies of U.S. President Donald Trump will impact global economic growth and fuel demand. Oil markets reversed some of their recent gains due to mixed factors, including expectations of increased production in the U.S. under Trump's pro-drilling policies and the easing of geopolitical tensions in Gaza, which reduces concerns about further supply disruptions from key production regions.
Trump stated that he would add new trade tariffs to his threat of sanctions against Russia if the country does not agree to a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. He also mentioned that these tariffs could be applied to "other involved countries."
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 958,000 barrels in the week ending January 17, according to sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.23 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 1.88 million barrels.
| CBOT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | Contract | USD/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 203.56 | 0.00 |
| Corn | March | 192.81 | +2.17 |
| Soybeans | March | 391.50 | +3.49 |
| Soymeal | March | 347.56 | -0.55 |
| EURONEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Contract | EUR/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 230.25 | +0.25 |
| Corn | March | 216.00 | +1.50 |
| Rapeseed | May | 528.50 | +1.50 |
Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago remained unchanged at $5.54 per bushel. Wheat futures in both Chicago and Paris saw slight increases, with some contracts remaining unchanged. Export sales data will be published on Friday. For the week ending January 16, 2025, U.S. wheat export inspections are expected to range between 200,000 – 600,000 tons of the old crop + 0 – 50,000 tons of the new 2025/26 crop. Japan purchased 126,893 tons of wheat from the United States, Australia, and Canada. Thailand postponed its tender for the purchase of 195,000 tons of wheat. According to Rosstat data, as of the end of 2024, Russia's grain stocks stood at 26.7 million tons (-24.5% compared to the previous year). Wheat stocks were 15.4 million tons (-29.4%), and corn stocks were 3.4 million tons (-8.3%).
Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures rose by 5 1/2 cents to $4.89 3/4 per bushel. Corn futures in Chicago and Paris increased. For the week ending January 17, 2025, U.S. ethanol production reached 1.099 million barrels per day (-4,000 compared to the previous week). U.S. ethanol stocks increased by 866,000 barrels for the week to 25.874 million barrels. U.S. ethanol exports rose by 44,000 barrels to 169,000 barrels per day. Weekly U.S. corn export sales are expected to range between 0.7 – 1.7 million tons of the old crop + 0 – 50,000 tons of the new crop. The condition of corn crops in Argentina is declining due to a lack of rainfall. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for Argentina's corn production by 1 million tons to 49 million tons. In 2024, China imported 11.18 million tons of wheat (12.1 in 2023) and 13.64 million tons of corn (27.13). The planting of Brazil’s second corn crop is delayed, but this is minor compared to other crucial factors. More important is when the wet season will end and what rainfall will occur in the meantime.
Yesterday, Chicago March soybean futures rose by 9 1/2 cents to $10.65 1/2 per bushel. Soybean and soyoil futures in Chicago increased, while soymeal futures declined. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada rose. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales are expected to range between 0.6 – 1.8 million tons of the old crop + 0 – 50,000 tons for the new crop, soymeal exports sales are estimated between 100,000 – 450,000 tons, and soyoil export sales between 10,000 – 60,000 tons. Brazilian soybean offers are lower due to unloading issues at Chinese ports. The restrictions on soybean imports from five Brazilian companies are not expected to significantly disrupt supply flows. The problems at Chinese ports are related to the massive influx of soybeans arriving in recent weeks. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its soybean production forecast for Argentina by 1 million tons to 49.6 million tons. The Argentine government is reducing export taxes on soybean exports from 33% to 26% and on soybmeal exports from 31% to 24.5%, effective January 26, 2025. This is a significant development in global trade relations. By the end of 2024, oilseed stocks in Russian agricultural organizations fell to 5.23 million tons (-5% compared to the previous year). Sunseed stocks dropped to 2.12 million tons (-23%), including agricultural organizations holding 214,440 tons (-222,930).
The new U.S. president has taken emergency measures affecting environmental policies and oil and gas extraction permits to rapidly increase fuel production in the country, aiming to lower prices and provide cheap raw materials for economic development. Saudi Arabia has been asked to lower oil prices as well. The administration has promised low interest rates to support economic growth. However, new appointments in the presidential administration seem to favor oil company lobbyists rather than the farmers who supported the president. This is creating complex and ambiguous situations and dependencies that are confusing the markets. Trump's clear goal is to de-escalate conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. So far, progress has been made in the Middle East, and decisions regarding Ukraine are expected. These actions will stabilize markets and prices. The world has not necessarily become better, but exhaustion is taking its toll, and the current situation favors change, with a shift towards peace after several years of wars.