In the week starting January 29, 2025, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,430.1 rubles/ton (4,699.6 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 3,407.8 rubles/ton (3,101.9), and the export tax on corn will be 4,659.1 rubles/ton (5,041.7).
From February 1, 2025, the export tax on Russian sunseed oil will be 17,786 rubles/ton (+1,719 compared to January). The duty on sunseed meal will be 3,888 rubles/ton (882.9).
Between January 1 and January 16, 937,500 tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (-38% compared to the previous year). The largest customers were Egypt (422,700 tons), Yemen (82,300 tons), UAE (66,300 tons), Kenya (60,500 tons), and Iraq (54,900 tons).
Due to a shortage of sunflower seeds, three plants of Kernel (the largest sunflower processor in Ukraine) have switched to processing alternative raw materials. In January, one of the plants ceased operations due to a lack of raw materials. Between October and December, Kernel processed 973,000 tons of oilseeds (+20% compared to the previous year). The increase was attributed to the launch of a new plant in western Ukraine. During this period, the gross profit of the company was $37 million (-37% compared to the same period in 2023), or 136 USD/ton (171 USD/ton previously). Over the coming months, the global supply of sunseed oil is expected to decline, leading to higher prices.
In 2025, the total cultivated area in Ukraine will slightly decrease to over 23 million hectares, including 11.067 million hectares of grain (48.1%) and 8.892 million hectares of oilseeds (38.7%). Corn will cover 5.826 million hectares, barley areas will be 790,200 hectares, and spring wheat areas will reach 222,700 hectares. Sunseed will be planted on 5.171 million hectares, soybean areas are expected at 2.423 million hectares, and rapeseed areas will be 1.167 million hectares.
The United States is taking measures to restrict imports of used cooking oil (UCO) to protect domestic oilseed farmers. Biofuel produced from imported raw materials will not qualify for financial incentives due to non-compliance with GREET, the Department of Energy's tool for measuring greenhouse gas emissions.
Authorities in Mexico are taking steps to ban the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) corn in the country, with the change expected to be enshrined in the constitution.
In November, Australia exported 769,500 tons of canola (180,000 tons in October and 542,300 tons in November 2023). The largest buyers were Germany (310,100 tons), Belgium (192,900 tons), and the Netherlands (65,700 tons). According to Lachstock Consulting’s Australian Export Vessel Line-ups data, exports in December reached 537,000 tons, while forecasts indicate 648,000 tons for January and 1.2 million tons for February. Abares expects the canola production in Australia for 2024/25 to be 5.6 million tons (+8% compared to 2023/24 and +10% above the ten-year average).
Currently, only 47% of U.S. soybean exports are directed to China, the lowest level in 17 years (excluding the trade war period). In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled 22.13 million tons (-5.7% compared to 2023, with a 21% market share). Brazil supplied 74.65 million tons of soybeans to China (+6.7% and a 71% market share). Argentina shipped 4.1 million tons (compared to 1.95 million tons previously). In 2024, China’s soybean imports reached 105.03 million tons.