Grain Highlights 05.02.2025

China has halted the import of 600,000 tons of wheat, mostly from Australia, which has been offered to other buyers due to high domestic supply and reduced demand.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein is strengthening in the domestic market, reaching 158  USD/ton ($145 a week earlier), driven by strong export demand, according to SovEcon.

Between July 1, 2024, and February 2, 2025, the EU imported 19 million tons of grain, a 9% decline from the previous year. Soft wheat imports totaled 5.09 million tons (-12%), durum wheat imports reached 1.01 million tons (-43%), barley imports were 0.76 million tons (-19%), and corn imports reached 11.9 million tons (+5%). Ukraine remained the top supplier, delivering 3.41 million tons of soft wheat, 6.73 million tons of corn, and 0.37 million tons of barley.

In 2024, Moldova’s rapeseed exports fell to 174,800 tons from 297,900 tons in 2023 and 78,100 tons in 2022. Despite the decline, the country remains a key regional exporter. Sunflower seed exports increased to 334,000 tons (221,000 tons in 2023, 154,500 tons in 2022).

Kazakhstan is prepared to supply Egypt with 1 million tons of grain, with the potential to increase shipments if needed. The country has also proposed meat exports and joint construction of grain storage facilities.

Australia's wheat exports for the 2024/25 season are expected to reach 24 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 22 million tons. The increase is attributed to a higher projected harvest, with an additional 2 million tons. Western Australia, the country’s primary wheat-growing region, reported particularly strong yields.

Indonesia is maintaining its biodiesel B50 implementation target after already adopting B40. B50 is set to be operational by 2026. In 2024, biodiesel production reached 13.15 million tons, exceeding the planned 11.3 million tons. Output is expected to rise to 15.6 million tons in 2025, saving the country $9 billion in foreign exchange. Domestic palm oil consumption will hit a record 14.5 million tons (+1 million YoY), driven by reduced exports.

In January 2025, Indonesia’s vegetable oil imports are projected to fall to 1 million tons (-16% MoM), marking one of the lowest levels in 11 months. Palm oil imports will drop to 272,000 tons (-46%), the lowest since March 2011. Meanwhile, soyoil imports will reach a seven-month high of 438,000 tons (+4%), and sunseed oil imports will rise to 280,000 tons (+10%). For the first time in a decade, palm oil's share of total imports has fallen below 30%.

Bangladesh is seeking to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat with 11.5% protein content.