Mar 25 Wheat futures are starting the Thursday session with increases across all three markets. Chicago SRW futures dropped by 4 to 5 cents in the nearby contracts.
Mar 25 Soybeans are attempting to recover some of Wednesday's losses, showing gains of 4 to 6 cents early on Thursday.
The corn market is experiencing small gains on Thursday morning, with futures receiving late-session buying to lift prices from the day's lows. Mar 25 Corn contracts were flat to 1 ¼ cents lower in the nearby months, while some new crop contracts saw increases.
The global grain market faces a day of mixed sentiment as traders assess upcoming U.S. export sales data, Brazil’s logistical challenges, and shifting agricultural policies. Analysts anticipate the USDA’s weekly export sales report to show corn sales between 850,000 and 1.5 million metric tons, with an average estimate of 1.133 million tons. Soybean sales are projected between 300,000 and 1.1 million tons, while wheat is expected to lag behind. The figures will be closely watched as they provide direction for futures markets, particularly amid ongoing uncertainty in global trade flows.
U.S. ethanol production remains robust, with stocks rising 2.7% to 26.412 million barrels, exceeding analyst expectations. Production reached 1.112 million barrels per day, outpacing forecasts and signaling steady demand for corn in biofuel markets. The data suggests that ethanol remains a strong source of domestic corn consumption, even as export competitiveness faces headwinds from a stronger dollar and increased global supply.
In Ukraine, grain exports continue despite geopolitical risks. Traders have committed to exporting 2.15 million metric tons of corn in February, following January’s 2.5 million tons. Ukraine’s total corn exports for the 2024/25 season have reached 12.4 million tons, with an expected export surplus of 22 million tons. The steady flow of Ukrainian grain remains a key factor in global supply dynamics, particularly as Black Sea shipments face logistical and security challenges.
Brazil’s grain export logistics, which had been hampered by bottlenecks at the Rondonopolis transshipment facility, have now stabilized. Lines of up to 3,500 trucks had disrupted deliveries, delaying soybean shipments amid a slow start to the export season. The resolution of the backlog is expected to improve the flow of grain to ports, alleviating short-term supply constraints. However, persistent rains continue to slow Brazil’s soybean harvest, raising concerns about potential delays in second-crop corn planting.
Despite logistical challenges, Rabobank and several leading agribusiness consultancies project Brazil will produce a record soybean crop of 170 million metric tons in 2024/25. Improved weather in key producing regions like Mato Grosso and Goias is driving higher yield expectations, though dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul remain a concern. Brazil’s soybean exports are forecasted to reach 103 million tons, while local crushing is expected to rise, reinforcing Brazil’s dominance in global oilseed markets.
Mexico has reversed its ban on genetically modified corn for human consumption following a recent USMCA dispute ruling. The decision is a significant policy shift that may ease tensions with U.S. exporters and support demand for American corn in one of its largest export markets. The reversal eliminates a major trade barrier and could bolster U.S. corn sales in the coming months.
Meanwhile, Cargill is expanding its footprint in Brazil’s biofuels and sugar industry with the acquisition of full ownership of SJC Bioenergia. The move aligns with Brazil’s push to increase ethanol blending in gasoline, reinforcing demand for both sugarcane and corn. Cargill’s investment signals growing confidence in Brazil’s renewable energy sector and a strategic shift beyond traditional grain trading.
Market sentiment remains highly sensitive to these developments. Traders are closely watching U.S. export performance, Brazil’s logistical recovery, and Mexico’s policy adjustments to gauge near-term price direction. With uncertainty in global trade policies and weather-driven supply risks, price volatility is likely to persist, keeping market participants on high alert for any shifts in fundamentals.