Chicago wheat futures are posting strong gains in early trading, with March 2025 contracts rising by 12 3/4 cents to start the day at $5.77 3/4 per bushel. This follows Thursday’s session, where wheat saw moderate gains across all three U.S. wheat markets. Export demand has picked up, with the latest weekly sales reaching a seven-week high. Additionally, European production forecasts are slightly improved, contributing to a more optimistic outlook.
Corn prices are also seeing strength this morning, with March 2025 futures up 3 1/4 cents, trading at $4.93 1/2 per bushel. The market found support on Thursday as front-month contracts gained, though new crop December corn remained slightly weaker. Export sales data indicates strong demand, with total commitments running ahead of the typical seasonal pace. Meanwhile, Brazil’s crop projections have been adjusted higher, reflecting expectations of a larger second crop.
Soybeans are leading the charge with the strongest gains, as March 2025 contracts trade 8 1/2 cents higher at $10.30 per bushel. The market saw modest gains on Thursday, while soymeal futures closed slightly lower and soy oil futures rebounded. Anticipation is building for next week’s NOPA crush report, with expectations of strong processing figures. However, Brazilian soybean production has been trimmed slightly by CONAB, though it remains well above historical averages.
The grain markets are responding to several key global developments that are shaping today’s session. Export sales data for wheat revealed the highest weekly total in nearly two months, boosting confidence in global demand. At the same time, EU wheat production forecasts have inched higher, while French soft wheat conditions show improvement compared to last year. These factors are helping to support wheat prices, though the market remains sensitive to global trade flows.
In corn, export commitments have reached 75% of the USDA’s forecast, running ahead of the seasonal norm. This suggests stronger-than-expected global demand, even as U.S. farmers continue to roll positions ahead of contract expirations. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn production outlook has been lifted by CONAB, with the second crop contributing most of the increase. This could add some longer-term pressure to prices, but for now, the market is focused on strong U.S. sales.
Soybean markets are watching export sales closely, as the latest report showed one of the lowest weekly totals for the marketing year. Despite this, total commitments remain in line with the USDA’s expectations, and upcoming NOPA crush data is expected to confirm strong domestic processing demand. The soybean complex is also digesting slightly lower production estimates from Brazil, which could help to support prices in the near term.
A key factor influencing today’s trade is the upcoming three-day weekend, as U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day. Traders are positioning themselves accordingly, with some short covering and adjustments ahead of the break. This is particularly evident in wheat, where prices have surged in early trade.
Broader macroeconomic factors are also in play, including currency movements that could impact export competitiveness. The dollar’s direction will be closely watched, as a stronger U.S. currency could make American grain exports less attractive on the global market.
As the session progresses, attention will turn to whether the early strength can be sustained, especially given the mixed signals from export data and South American production estimates. The long weekend adds an extra layer of volatility, with traders looking to balance short-term positioning with longer-term market fundamentals.