Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures opened Tuesday lower after last week’s rally, with March 2025 contracts trading at $6.00 per bushel, down ¾ cent. Wheat prices saw strong gains on Friday, with soft red winter (SRW) futures rising 22¼ cents, supported by concerns over cold weather across U.S. winter wheat regions and the Black Sea. Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat also posted strong gains.
Corn futures started Tuesday’s session with slight gains, with March 2025 contracts at $4.96¼ per bushel, up 2½ cents. The market benefited from spillover support from wheat last week, as well as solid demand. Brazil’s first corn crop is now 29% harvested, while its second corn crop planting has reached 36%, lagging last year’s pace.
Soybean futures opened slightly higher, with March 2025 contracts trading at $10.36 per bushel, up 2 cents. Despite modest strength on Friday, soybeans ended last week lower overall, with ongoing harvest delays in Brazil and weaker U.S. export demand weighing on the market. Soymeal futures were up $2.70 per ton, while soyoil was slightly lower in early trading.
The global grain market is navigating a mix of bullish and bearish forces. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is undergoing structural changes, with the Trump administration firing probationary staff from research and farm loan agencies, citing efficiency measures. The move raises concerns about potential disruptions in data availability for agricultural markets.
Weather remains a major driver of wheat prices. Extreme cold across U.S. winter wheat-growing regions, with temperatures reaching -20°C to -25°C (-4°F to -13°F), is raising concerns about winterkill in areas with inadequate snow cover. The Black Sea region is also facing frost risks, particularly in Russia’s Volgograd area, where a lack of snow protection could damage winter crops.
In South America, weather conditions continue to challenge grain markets. Brazil is experiencing a warmer and drier trend in February, affecting crop development in key soybean-producing areas. Argentina, however, received crucial rainfall over the weekend, preventing further losses to its soybean and corn crops, although long-term drought concerns persist.
On the export front, Russian wheat prices are climbing for the fourth consecutive week due to declining shipments and an export quota that took effect on February 15. FOB wheat prices for March delivery rose to $247 per ton. Analysts expect Russian wheat exports for February to drop significantly compared to last year, with logistical issues at Black Sea ports further constraining shipments.
Ukrainian grain exports for the 2024/25 season have reached 27.5 million metric tons, up 2% from the previous year, despite a sharp 40% decline in February’s shipments compared to last year. Ukrainian wheat exports stand at 11.5 million tons, while corn exports have dropped around 9% year-over-year.
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues at a slower pace, with 23% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday, well behind last year’s 32% completion rate. Delays in the soybean harvest are affecting the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, which represents 75% of the country’s total annual production. Farmers in Mato Grosso and Goiás are racing to complete planting within the ideal climate window.
Soybean prices in Brazil are also under pressure as the market anticipates a record crop. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for Paranaguá fell 1% last week, while the Paraná index declined 0.5%. In Argentina and Paraguay, harvest progress is slower than expected, raising concerns about lower production.
Corn prices in Brazil have risen due to limited availability, as farmers focus on soybean harvesting. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Corn Index in Campinas, São Paulo, climbed 3.5% last week to BRL 79.12 per 60-kilogram bag.
Wheat prices in Brazil are also trending higher, driven by lower domestic supply and rising international prices. The off-season period, combined with hesitant selling activity from producers, has contributed to low liquidity in the market.
As the trading session unfolds, market participants will closely monitor further weather developments in North and South America, U.S. policy shifts, and export trends from key grain-producing regions.