Wheat futures ended the session lower, with the May 25 CBOT Wheat contract closing at $5.63 ½ per bushel, down 1 ½ cents. Kansas City HRW wheat led losses, dropping 10 to 12 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat posted 2 to 4 cent declines. Strength in the U.S. dollar added pressure to the wheat market, making U.S. exports less competitive. The upcoming USDA Export Sales report on Thursday is expected to show wheat sales between 300,000 and 700,000 metric tons (MT) for the old crop and 25,000 to 100,000 MT for the new crop. Meanwhile, Turkey has announced duty-free wheat imports for flour production, potentially increasing global wheat trade competition.

Corn futures saw mixed action on Wednesday, with front-month contracts rising 1 to 3 ¼ cents, while new crop December futures fell 2 ¾ cents. The May 25 CBOT Corn contract settled at $4.62 per bushel, up 3 ¼ cents. The EIA’s weekly petroleum report showed an increase in U.S. ethanol production by 43,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.105 million bpd, which supported corn prices. Ethanol stocks saw a draw of 801,000 barrels to 26.575 million barrels, indicating steady demand. Export Sales data, due Thursday, is expected to report 0.8 to 1.7 million MT of old crop corn sales, with new crop sales estimated between 0 and 100,000 MT. Meanwhile, Turkey has issued a 1 million MT import quota for feed corn at a reduced tariff rate until the end of June.

Soybean futures ended Wednesday lower, with the May 25 CBOT Soybean contract closing at $10.08 ¼ per bushel, down 4 ½ cents. Soymeal futures also dropped, with front-month contracts down $1.50 per ton, while soyoil futures declined by 18 points. Export demand remained underwhelming, with USDA sales estimates for the week of March 13 projected at 0.4 to 0.9 million MT for 2024/25 soybeans, while new crop sales are expected between 0 and 50,000 MT. Brazil’s soybean crop estimate was revised lower by 0.8 million MT to 170.9 million MT, according to Abiove, reflecting potential weather-related production declines.

Key Global Market Developments Impacting Grain Prices

The global grain market faced continued pressure from trade policy uncertainties, shifting supply-demand dynamics, and weather-related disruptions.

Brazil’s agricultural input sector is grappling with financial instability, with 45 agri-input companies filing for bankruptcy protection in 2024, marking an 80% increase from the previous year. Analysts attribute this surge to lower grain prices, rising production costs, and supply chain disruptions. Agrogalaxy, one of the largest affected companies, reported BRL 9 billion ($1.58 billion) in total debt, underscoring the financial strain on Brazil’s agricultural sector.

Weather patterns continue to create volatility in global grain markets. Heavy rains in Argentina’s Pampas region are expected to hinder soybean and corn early harvests, while cold spells in the U.S. Midwest could affect winter wheat conditions. In Europe, an increasingly active precipitation pattern raises concerns about potential flood risks in the southern regions. Meanwhile, dry weather in India’s key wheat areas persists but has not yet reached extreme levels.

Chinese corn imports have slowed to their lowest pace in seven seasons, casting doubt on Beijing’s forecast of 9 million MT for the year. China imported only 180,000 tons of corn in January and February combined, bringing total imports for the 2024-25 marketing year to 1.07 million tons. The sharp drop is attributed to weak domestic demand, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. corn, and government efforts to support domestic grain prices.

In wheat markets, Russian wheat export prices have fallen for the first time in a month. SovEcon reported that bids for Russian wheat declined to 17,300-17,800 rubles per metric ton, down from 17,500-18,000 rubles last week. Exporters have been forced to lower prices as grain supplies increase ahead of the spring planting season. Meanwhile, the EU reported a 35% year-over-year drop in soft wheat exports, with total shipments reaching 14.92 million MT as of March 16, compared to 22.92 million MT in the previous season.

S&P Global raised its U.S. 2025 corn acreage forecast to 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 acres from previous estimates, while keeping soybean planting projections steady at 83.3 million acres. Wheat acreage is projected at 46.6 million acres, reflecting a 500,000-acre reduction from prior forecasts.

Ethanol markets saw positive movement, with the EIA reporting a weekly increase in ethanol production and a drop in stockpiles. Production rose to 1.105 million barrels per day, while stocks decreased to 26.575 million barrels, indicating healthy demand for biofuels.

Indonesia announced a $487 million capital injection into state-run Agrinas Palma Nusantara to manage palm oil plantations confiscated as part of a corruption probe. The move could shift global palm oil trade flows, particularly affecting Malaysian exporters. Meanwhile, Malaysia set its April crude palm oil export tax at 10%, reflecting sustained high global prices.

Argentina reached a deal to resume poultry meat exports to China after a two-year suspension due to avian flu. In 2023, China accounted for 45% of Argentina’s poultry exports, making the agreement a significant development for South American meat markets.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) opened applications for $10 billion in farm aid, as part of a $31 billion package approved by Congress last December. Farmers can apply for relief under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, with the sign-up window running through August 15.

Looking ahead, grain markets remain volatile as trade tensions escalate, weather conditions fluctuate, and supply-chain challenges persist. Traders will closely watch the USDA Export Sales Report, China’s grain import trends, and Brazilian harvest conditions to gauge market direction in the coming sessions.