Wheat markets opened Friday with early gains but remained under pressure following Thursday's bearish USDA export sales report. The May 25 CBOT Wheat contract started the day at $5.57 ½ per bushel, marginally up by ¼ cent from the previous close. The wheat complex had suffered notable losses the day before, with Kansas City HRW futures dropping 7 to 9 cents and Minneapolis Spring Wheat declining by 7 cents. A stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on wheat prices, reducing the competitiveness of American exports. Export data revealed a marketing-year low net reduction of 248,849 metric tons, mainly due to cancellations from Panama and unknown buyers. However, new crop bookings were a bright spot at 491,092 metric tons. Globally, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2024/25 wheat production forecast to 799 million tons but expects inventories to tighten in 2025/26 due to rising consumption.
Corn futures held firm on Friday morning after a strong performance on Thursday. The May 25 CBOT Corn contract opened at $4.67 ¼ per bushel, down slightly by 1 ¾ cents. Thursday's close at $4.69 marked a 7-cent gain, supported by high export demand and bullish ethanol production data. Japan, South Korea, and Mexico were the top buyers, with total weekly export bookings of 1.497 million metric tons—26% above last year’s figure. The IGC increased its 2024/25 corn production outlook by 1 million tons and projected a significant 52 million-ton rise in output for 2025/26. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn harvest reached 14% completion, aided by improved weather. U.S. barge shipments of corn rose sharply by 81.6% week-over-week, reflecting strong logistical movement.
Soybeans opened slightly weaker on Friday, with the May 25 CBOT Soybean contract starting at $10.11 per bushel, down 2 cents from Thursday’s close of $10.13, which marked a 4 ¾ cent gain. Soymeal futures declined by $0.60 to $1.60 per ton, while soy oil rose between 35 and 39 points. USDA’s export sales report showed lackluster results, with only 352,580 metric tons sold for 2024/25—down 28.6% from last year and the lowest in five weeks. China was the top buyer, though net sales were partially offset by cancellations. New crop sales were negligible. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reduced its Argentine soybean crop forecast to 48.6 million tons, citing ongoing drought impacts. IGC held its 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast at 82 million tons and expects a slight increase to 83 million tons in 2025/26.
Key Global Market Developments Impacting Grain Prices
Trade tensions continue to cloud the agricultural landscape. The Trump's administration is reportedly weighing new restrictions on Chinese imports, including agricultural products, while Trump’s proposed tariffs on China-built ships could raise shipping costs for U.S. grain exporters by as much as $930 million annually. These measures threaten to reduce competitiveness and disrupt ocean freight access.
Canadian farmers are now caught in a two-front trade war. China implemented new tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian ag exports—including a 100% tariff on canola oil, meal, and peas—effective March 20. U.S. tariffs on additional Canadian goods are expected soon. The result has been lower equipment purchases and a surge in applications for government-backed low-interest loans.
Argentina’s crop outlook continues to shift under weather pressure. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its soybean forecast by 1 million tons to 48.6 million, blaming high temperatures and drought in the northeast. The corn estimate remained unchanged at 49 million tons after a revision to planted area, despite a 40% yield reduction in the worst-affected regions.
Argentina’s oilseed workers returned to work after Vicentin, one of the country’s largest processors, committed to paying overdue wages. The strike had temporarily halted soy processing. Meanwhile, wage negotiations are ongoing with the country’s grain processors and exporters' chamber.
The International Grains Council expects global grain stockpiles to remain steady in 2025/26 at 578 million tons. Corn stocks are projected to grow slightly to 280 million tons, while wheat stocks are expected to decline from 265 to 259 million tons due to increased consumption. Global grain production is forecast to rise from 2.31 to 2.37 billion tons.
The Mississippi River saw a dramatic increase in barge shipments last week. Corn shipments rose by 81.6% and soybeans by 94.9% week-over-week. Barge rates in St. Louis increased slightly to $17.68 per short ton, reflecting higher transport demand.
In North America, warm and dry weather is forecast for April, with implications for both winter wheat development and early corn and soybean plantings. Soil moisture remains a concern, particularly in the Northern and Central Plains, while warmth may help avoid frost risks.
Ukraine’s winter crops are reportedly in satisfactory condition, according to the deputy farm minister, despite weather fluctuations in February and March.
Indonesia injected $487 million into Agrinas Palma Nusantara to manage confiscated palm oil plantations, potentially reshaping global palm oil trade. Malaysia responded by setting a 10% crude palm oil export tax for April, and overnight prices rose amid firm global demand.
The USDA reinstated several reports previously suspended due to budget cuts, including the July cattle inventory and May crop estimates. This move is expected to improve market transparency.
U.S. ethanol markets remain robust. Production rose to 1.105 million barrels per day while stockpiles dropped by 2.9%, helping support corn prices. However, renewable blending credits issued by the EPA fell in February, indicating some shifts in biofuel compliance dynamics.
Lastly, U.S. red meat production declined in February. Beef production fell 6.8% year-over-year, while pork was down 7.2%, reflecting lower slaughter numbers across both segments. This drop could impact feed grain demand in the months ahead.