Wheat futures closed the day with light gains. Chicago SRW wheat settled at $5.58¼ per bushel, up just 1 cent, while Kansas City HRW contracts posted modest gains of 2 to 3 cents in the front months. Minneapolis spring wheat futures ticked up fractionally. For the week, gains remained marginal, with May contracts showing only slight increases. Speculative positioning reflected cautious sentiment, as traders in Chicago wheat added over 3,200 contracts to their net short positions, while positions in Kansas City saw slight short covering. Export-wise, U.S. wheat commitments for the 2024/25 marketing year reached 21.026 million metric tons, marking a 14% increase over the same period last year, though lagging behind the five-year average pace. In France, soft wheat conditions remained stable, with 74% rated good to excellent. Looking ahead, limited rainfall in the Southern Plains, particularly across Texas and Kansas, may further influence wheat development as conditions remain dry and unfavorable for winter crop greening.

Corn futures closed lower on Friday, with May corn ending at $4.64¼ per bushel, a drop of 4¾ cents. Nonetheless, May posted a weekly gain of 5¾ cents, suggesting some resilience earlier in the week. National average cash prices declined to $4.29¾, reflecting weaker demand sentiment. Traders are cautiously awaiting the USDA's Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. In speculative activity, managed money significantly reduced their net long positions in corn by over 39,000 contracts, with the total net long now down to 107,270 — a steep decline from over 364,000 contracts earlier in February. Export sales continued to impress, however, with 52.031 million metric tons committed so far this year, up 25% from the same point last year and ahead of the USDA’s expected pace.

Soybeans also drifted lower to end the week, with May futures settling at $10.09¾ per bushel, down 3¼ cents. Weekly losses for May totaled 6¼ cents, while the new crop November contract slipped over 10 cents. The national average cash soybean price dipped to $9.49½. Soymeal futures, in contrast, saw gains on Friday, rising by $2.20 to $2.80 per ton, though still down $5.60 on the week. Soyoil futures declined by 67 to 69 points Friday but closed the week higher overall. Commitment of Traders data showed speculators increasing their net short position by more than 6,000 contracts, now standing at 22,005 net short. Commercial players also expanded their short exposure. Export performance remained solid, with 45.422 million metric tons of soybeans committed to date, up 13% from a year earlier and approaching 91% of USDA projections.

Outside the futures pits, major developments across the globe are weighing heavily on market sentiment and shaping near-term grain fundamentals. A key driver was China’s imposition of new tariffs on Canadian agricultural products. Effective March 20, China implemented 100% tariffs on over $1 billion worth of Canadian canola oil, meal cakes, and peas, as well as 25% duties on seafood and pork. These retaliatory measures follow Canada's levies on Chinese electric vehicles and metals, intensifying a trade dispute that now directly impacts key grain and oilseed flows. Canada is a top global canola producer and the No. 1 supplier of canola seed to China. The restrictions are especially painful for Canadian growers who have already committed to spring planting expenses.

At the same time, U.S.-Canada trade tensions are also flaring. President Trump delayed the implementation of broader 25% tariffs for 30 days, but has already targeted Canadian steel and aluminum, while threatening new tariffs on dairy and lumber. This double-sided pressure is causing Canadian farmers to pull back on capital spending. Equipment manufacturers have reported a slump in purchases, and demand for subsidized farm loans has surged. The Canadian Canola Growers Association reported significantly higher loan applications, as farmers seek ways to navigate uncertain market conditions.

In South America, weather continues to exert a powerful influence on supply expectations. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange downgraded its soybean production forecast by 1 million tons, now expecting 48.6 million tons for the 2024/25 crop year. Persistent drought in the northeastern region has reduced yield potential by an estimated 22%, impacting around 1.86 million hectares. While corn yields in parts of Argentina were also hit—down 40% in some northern regions—an expansion in planted area allowed the exchange to maintain its corn output forecast at 49 million tons.

Meanwhile, labor unrest temporarily disrupted Argentina’s soybean processing industry. Oilseed workers at Vicentin plants ended a strike after receiving partial payments of overdue wages. The resolution allows for resumed operations at key processing sites in the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal. The situation underscores ongoing financial instability in Argentina’s agribusiness sector, with Vicentin still in bankruptcy proceedings after defaulting on over $1 billion in debts.

Global stockpile projections from the International Grains Council offered a mixed view. Total grain stocks for 2025/26 are forecast at 578 million tons, up just 1 million year-on-year. Wheat stocks are expected to fall from 265 to 259 million tons, while corn inventories are seen rising to 280 million tons. With both output and consumption projected to rise, the outlook reflects continued tightness in wheat availability and slightly more comfortable corn supplies.

In Ukraine, most winter grain crops are reported to be in satisfactory condition, with recent weather fluctuations not causing major harm. This provides some stability to a region often at the center of global wheat trade and geopolitical risk.

Export data for the week ending March 13 highlighted robust overseas demand. China remained the top buyer of U.S. soybeans, purchasing 270,000 tons. Japan led corn purchases with 503,000 tons, while Guatemala topped wheat buying with 175,000 tons. These export sales continue to provide a supportive backdrop for U.S. grain prices, particularly for corn and soybeans.

Weather conditions across North and South America are another key factor in market movements. The U.S. Northern Plains remain in significant drought, with very low soil moisture heading into planting season. The Southern Plains also face dry conditions, especially in Texas and Kansas, which could hamper wheat development. Meanwhile, South America’s Pampas region and parts of Brazil are expecting wet weather in late March and early April, posing risks to ongoing corn and soybean harvests.

Looking ahead to April, forecasts for North America suggest warm and dry weather across much of the continent. This may benefit early planting for corn and soybeans, but could also exacerbate moisture deficits. Winter wheat development may be slowed by dry soils, though frost concerns appear minimal thanks to the warmer outlook.

Finally, logistical developments in the U.S. are also noteworthy. Mississippi River grain shipments surged to 738,000 tons in the week ending March 15, nearly doubling the prior week’s total. Corn shipments increased by 81.6% week-over-week, while soybean shipments jumped 94.9%. Barge freight rates also rose in response to the stronger demand.

With weather volatility, geopolitical tensions, and shifting trade dynamics all in play, the grain markets enter the final stretch of March with both opportunity and risk on the horizon.