May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat contracts opened Tuesday’s session at $5.45½ per bushel, down 2¾ cents from the prior close. The wheat complex continues to face downward momentum following Monday’s losses across all major U.S. contracts. SRW futures had closed at $5.48¼ on Monday, dropping 10 cents, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis HRS lost 10–13 cents. Crop condition reports brought mixed signals: Kansas winter wheat improved by 1% to 49% good/excellent, and Texas rose 3% to 31%, but Oklahoma fell sharply to 37%, down 9 points, as high winds, fires, and lack of moisture degraded soil conditions. Export inspections reported 484,701 metric tons shipped, with top buyers including the Philippines and Mexico. Meanwhile, Taiwan issued a tender for 100,000 MT of U.S. wheat. Russian consultancy IKAR raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast by 1.5 MMT to 82.5 MMT, adding bearish pressure to global markets.

Chicago May 2025 Corn opened Tuesday at $4.61 per bushel, down 3½ cents. On Monday, corn futures closed at $4.64½ per bushel, up just ¼ cent after a muted session. Export inspections provided support, totaling 1.463 MMT for the week ending March 20 — 16.6% higher than the same period last year. Mexico, Japan, and South Korea were leading destinations. U.S. domestic cash corn prices were slightly up at $4.29¼. In Brazil, AgRural maintained its safrinha corn estimate at 87.9 MMT despite concerns over irregular rainfall. The overall corn forecast was revised upward to 121.8 MMT. The harvest of Brazil’s summer crop reached 77% completion. Early U.S. planting is underway, with Louisiana already at 65% completion and Texas at 45%.

May 2025 Soybean futures started Tuesday at $10.01¾ per bushel, down 5½ cents from Monday’s close of $10.07¼. Monday’s session saw a 2½ cent drop, accompanied by a decline in the national average cash price to $9.47. Export inspections totaled 822,214 MT for the week, a 25% increase from the prior week, with China accounting for 404,561 MT despite ongoing trade friction. AgRural trimmed Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean production estimate by 2.3 MMT to 165.9 MMT, citing disappointing yields in Rio Grande do Sul. Still, 77% of the crop has been harvested, ahead of last year’s pace. Soymeal futures dropped $1.10 to $2.70/ton, while soyoil rose modestly by 13 to 24 points. Futures markets reflect growing bearish sentiment amid ample supply and soft Chinese demand.

Key Market Drivers and Global Headlines

Geopolitical negotiations between the United States and Russia are ongoing in Saudi Arabia, focused on reaching a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea. These talks aim to reopen key grain shipping routes and improve insurance conditions. The U.S. delegation, led by Andrew Peek and Michael Anton, is advocating for mechanisms to verify territorial control. The outcome could reshape logistics across the region.

U.S. weekly crop condition reports showed divergence among key wheat-producing states. Kansas wheat saw a slight improvement, but Oklahoma ratings fell sharply due to high winds and drought-induced wildfires. Texas and Colorado recorded slight improvements. The USDA noted that 34% of U.S. winter wheat is growing under drought conditions, up from 27% the previous week.

The European Commission’s MARS unit described EU crop conditions as “fairly good” and better than last season. Weather has generally been favorable for spring sowing and field prep. However, irreversible crop damage has been recorded in parts of Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, with precipitation deficits especially affecting eastern Ukraine.

Russia is moving forward with aggressive wheat marketing. IKAR raised its production forecast for 2025 to 82.5 MMT. Export prices are rising, with 12.5% protein wheat now quoted between $252 and $256 per ton FOB, reflecting stronger demand from countries like Iran and Turkey. March export estimates remain well below last year’s levels, with a projected 1.6 MMT — down from 4.8 MMT in March 2024.

In Brazil, persistent rainfall across the Pampas continues to delay corn harvesting and poses logistical risks. At the same time, hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate Goiás and Central Brazil in April, posing a serious risk to the second corn crop. Analysts highlight Goiás as the most vulnerable region.

The USDA’s weekly inspections showed that corn exports reached 1.463 MMT, soybeans at 822k MT, and wheat at 485k MT. China continues to dominate U.S. soybean shipments, while Mexico and the Philippines lead for corn and wheat respectively.

In India, severe thunderstorms and hailstorms have disrupted wheat harvesting in key states like Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. The Indian Meteorological Department warned that these events could reduce yields and damage agricultural infrastructure, raising regional supply concerns.

The U.S. is dealing with one of its worst egg supply crises in years, exacerbated by avian influenza. The Biden administration has nearly doubled imports of Brazilian eggs and is considering lifting restrictions on using broiler chicken eggs in food manufacturing. This could have implications for feed demand, particularly soybean meal and corn, as production balances shift.

Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 77% completion, up from 70% the previous week. AgRural’s downgrade in crop estimate to 165.9 MMT reflects underperformance in southern regions, partially offset by strong yields in Mato Grosso. Rising export premiums are helping stabilize local prices.

Mexico’s 2025/26 grain balance is shifting. Corn and sorghum output are expected to rise on the back of better economics and policy support, while wheat production is projected to fall due to drought in Sonora and Sinaloa. Import levels for wheat and rice are projected to increase to fill the gap.

Chinese trade continues to influence soybean flows. Sinograin is set to auction 160,000 MT of imported soybeans — its first in two months — to counteract short-term domestic shortages caused by customs delays and Brazilian shipment lags. However, this auction could coincide with a surge in Q2 Brazilian arrivals, keeping downward pressure on prices.

The April weather outlook projects warmer-than-average temperatures in Central Brazil and cooler conditions in Argentina. Rainfall is expected to be near-normal overall, but regional dryness in Central and Eastern Brazil may exacerbate stress on the second corn crop. Analysts are closely watching weather impacts on sugarcane and coffee as well.