May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat futures opened Thursday at $5.36¾ per bushel, slightly up by 1½ cents from the previous close of $5.35¼. Wheat continues to show slight resilience after a midweek selloff. Despite Taiwan securing 100,000 MT of U.S. wheat, broader sentiment remains pressured by weak Black Sea risk premium, improving crop prospects in Kansas and Texas, and light demand. USDA’s weekly export sales are due today, with expectations ranging from 0 to 550,000 MT for old crop and up to 300,000 MT for new crop. Meanwhile, wet weather forecasts for SRW areas could benefit development, but dryness persists in HRW regions. Attention is also focused on Monday’s grain stocks report, expected to show 1.221 billion bushels of wheat in storage as of March 1.
May 2025 Corn futures opened Thursday at $4.52¼ per bushel, up 1 cent from Wednesday’s close of $4.51¼. The market has been grappling with bearish ethanol-related data and broader commodity headwinds. Wednesday saw corn futures fall by 6½ cents as the EIA reported a significant 52,000 bpd drop in ethanol production, while stocks rose to 27.35 million barrels. Export sales estimates for today range from 600,000 to 1.6 million MT for old crop, and up to 100,000 MT for new crop. Traders also digested news of a South Korean purchase of 204,000 MT. Monday’s USDA report is forecast to show 8.153 billion bushels of corn on hand, according to Bloomberg. Domestic cash prices fell by 6 cents to $4.17.
May 2025 Soybean futures began Thursday at $10.07¾ per bushel, gaining 6¾ cents from the prior close of $10.01. Soybeans are showing modest strength early in the session, bolstered by gains in soyoil and a pause in the broader commodity selloff. Wednesday’s session ended slightly lower, with meal prices slipping by 90 cents and cash beans ticking down to $9.42½. USDA export sales today are expected between 300,000 and 900,000 MT for old crop beans, and up to 50,000 MT for new crop. Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to hit a record 15.56 MMT in March. Bloomberg's poll forecasts 1.905 billion bushels of U.S. soybean stocks as of March 1, to be confirmed in next Monday’s USDA report.
Key Global Drivers
Brazil’s soybean harvest is nearing completion at 76.4% and is on track for a record production year despite some yield concerns in Rio Grande do Sul. Overall production for the 2024/25 season is pegged at 169.3 MMT, slightly above USDA’s estimate.
Ukraine’s total grain exports for the 2024/25 season have reached 32.2 MMT, down 6% year-over-year. Wheat exports declined by 4.4%, corn by 10%, while barley exports rose 12%. March exports were only 3 MMT — a third less than last year.
South Africa revised its total 2025 commercial corn crop estimate up by 4.7% to 14.6 MMT, with white corn production expected to jump by 27% year-over-year, and yellow corn up 1%. This raises optimism for southern hemisphere supply.
Russia and Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping deal, though still fragile, continues to reduce logistic risks. However, major exporters like Nutrien believe it will not significantly affect global fertilizer or grain flows in 2025. Russian fertilizer output is already near full capacity and operating around trade restrictions.
The USDA’s EIA ethanol report showed weaker biofuel demand. Ethanol production dropped to 1.053 million barrels/day, with stocks rising to 27.35 million barrels — pressuring corn.
Indonesian palm oil exports in January dropped to 1.96 MMT, with production also down to 4.18 MMT. Domestic consumption for biodiesel declined to 916,000 tons, while inventories rose, signaling shifting supply dynamics in Southeast Asia’s edible oil markets.
Indonesia raised its crude palm oil (CPO) reference price for April to $961.54/ton, up from March. This maintains a $124/ton export tax and a 7.5% levy — a factor that could influence global vegetable oil competitiveness against soy.
Malaysian palm oil markets extended gains, rising 54 ringgit overnight (+1.27%) to 4313 ringgit, supported by firm demand and limited rainfall risks.
China’s Sinograin continues with its auction of 160,000 MT of imported soybeans to ease tight domestic stocks. However, analysts warn this might be offset by a surge of Brazilian Q2 arrivals, limiting any upward price reaction.
Weather remains a crucial watchpoint. Heavy rains (50–70mm) expected across Argentina’s Pampas over the next five days may delay harvest, while localized rainfall in Brazil’s Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul will improve soil moisture ahead of the second corn development stage.
North America’s cold April outlook has moderated, which is broadly beneficial for U.S. crops. However, Central and Southern Plains remain warm and dry — unfavorable for winter wheat. A larger weekend storm could bring showers and thunderstorms, but southwestern areas may continue to miss out.
Globally, coffee and sugar producers in Ethiopia and Brazil are keeping an eye on persistent dryness, while Southeast Asia sees stable rainfall for palm oil crops — though flooding remains a concern in eastern Kalimantan.