Wheat futures maintained moderate gains on Tuesday, building on Monday’s momentum sparked by reduced planting estimates. May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat closed at $5.40½ per bushel, up 3½ cents. Kansas City HRW futures were 6 to 9 cents higher at the close, while Minneapolis spring wheat also finished the session with 2 to 4 cent gains. U.S. crop conditions stayed largely stable, with Kansas holding at 49% good/excellent. However, Texas dropped 5 points to 26% gd/ex, while Oklahoma remained under drought pressure. Precipitation is forecast across SRW zones and Southern Plains, potentially aiding crop development. On the export side, EU soft wheat shipments reached 15.68 MMT — significantly below last year’s 24.54 MMT. Meanwhile, Ukraine is holding its wheat export ceiling at 16.2 MMT for the current marketing year, with 13 MMT already shipped.

Corn futures advanced at Tuesday’s close, driven by bullish planting weather and supportive demand signals. May 2025 Corn settled at $4.61¾ per bushel, gaining 4½ cents. Forecast rains could delay early U.S. planting, contributing to upside momentum. The national average cash corn price climbed to $4.31¼, up 7¾ cents. NASS’s monthly grain crushing report revealed 421.2 million bushels of corn used for ethanol in February — down 10% from January and 5.4% below February last year. Still, total marketing year use stands 1.3% ahead of 2024. In Brazil, StoneX revised the country’s corn outlook downward: first crop estimates were trimmed to 25.6 MMT (down 0.63 MMT), and second crop to 101.62 MMT (down 0.51 MMT).

Soybean futures led the commodity rally on Tuesday. May 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.34¼ per bushel, up 19½ cents, supported by gains in bean oil and speculation around higher biofuel blending mandates. Despite futures strength, the national cash price dropped to $9.79, down 21¾ cents. Soymeal futures were mixed, while soy oil gained sharply by 124 to 255 points. Analysts expect biofuel and oil sector representatives to pressure the EPA for biodiesel mandates of 5.5–5.75 billion gallons, up from the current 3.35 billion. The USDA’s Fat & Oils report showed 189.01 million bushels crushed in February — slightly ahead of analyst expectations but down 2.3% year-over-year. Bean oil stocks reached 1.924 billion pounds. In Brazil, StoneX reduced its soybean output forecast to 167.54 MMT (down 0.8 MMT), slightly below USDA’s 169 MMT. March soybean exports reached 16.09 MMT, up 0.53 MMT from the prior week.

Key Global Drivers and Market Headlines

US Fertilizer Strategy Faces Limitations
President Trump’s push to increase domestic potash production won’t immediately resolve U.S. dependence on imports, as nearly 90% of potash used domestically is sourced abroad — primarily from Canada. With tariffs of up to 25% looming, farmers face potential cost hikes just as planting begins. The Fertilizer Institute hopes that potash will be designated as a critical mineral to ease policy burdens.

USDA Grain Inspections – March 27
Corn inspections totaled 1.614 million tons, up from last week and last year. Soybeans saw 793k tons, mostly headed to China (622k), while wheat inspections were lower at 436k tons, led by Mexico.

US Crop Conditions
Winter wheat ratings remained steady in Kansas (49% gd/ex) but declined in Oklahoma (33%) and Texas (26%). National Crop Progress updates from NASS will resume next week.

Weather Trends
A cold pattern is sweeping North America, expected to linger in the East through mid-April. Central and Northern Brazil face wet conditions, favorable for the second corn crop. Argentina’s Pampas remains dry — aiding corn harvests. China is seeing unusually warm temperatures, while the Black Sea region will experience a temperature drop after five warm days.

Russian Wheat Forecast Trimmed
Argus cut Russia’s 2025/26 wheat production estimate to 80.3 MMT (from 81.5 MMT), with spring wheat revised down to 24.3 MMT due to smaller planted areas. Winter wheat was increased to 56 MMT, reflecting improved post-winter conditions.

Australian Wheat Output to Fall
Australia’s 2025/26 wheat production is projected to fall by 16.1% to 28.6 MMT, due to dry conditions in Victoria and South Australia. Excessive rains in NSW and Queensland are creating new planting challenges. Export prices in Adelaide jumped to A$385/ton, despite easing Chicago futures.

South American Wheat Prices Climb
Wheat prices rose in Brazil and Argentina in Q1, with Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Santa Catarina all posting OTC gains. U.S. wheat, meanwhile, remains under pressure due to strong dollar, weak export competitiveness, and Black Sea market instability. March prices were highest year-to-date in South America, while U.S. May/25 contracts hit lows not seen since July 2022.

US Soy Crush Slows in February
The USDA reported soybean crush at 188.7 million bushels, down 11.2% from January and 2.4% from last February. Harsh weather and excess soymeal supplies led to reduced plant efficiency. Soyoil stocks surged to 2.268 billion pounds, up 8.5% from January.

Malaysian Markets Closed
Due to a national holiday, Malaysian palm oil markets were closed on Tuesday. Prior to the break, palm oil futures had posted a 107 ringgit increase.

Global Futures Activity
Chinese May soybean futures fell 11 yuan, while soymeal and soyoil slipped 14 and 34 yuan, respectively. Corn was up 2 yuan. In the U.S., open interest rose sharply for corn and soybeans, with corn up 35,432 contracts and soybeans up 5,846.