May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat opened Wednesday’s session at $5.33 per bushel, down 7½ cents from Tuesday’s close of $5.40½. Wheat markets are softening again after starting the week strong on the back of reduced U.S. acreage estimates. Tuesday’s close marked a 3½ cent gain for SRW, with Kansas City HRW futures also firming by 6 to 9 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat closing 2 to 4 cents higher. Despite improving weather outlooks across SRW-producing zones and forecasts for Southern Plains rainfall, Texas wheat conditions slipped by 5 percentage points to just 26% good-to-excellent. Kansas remained steady at 49%. EU soft wheat exports reached only 15.68 MMT so far this season, down sharply from 24.54 MMT last year. Ukraine maintained its wheat export cap at 16.2 MMT for 2024/25, with 13 MMT already shipped and another 1 MMT expected in April.
May 2025 Corn began trading Wednesday at $4.54¾ per bushel, dropping 7 cents from Tuesday’s close of $4.61¾. Corn futures gained 4½ cents on Tuesday, supported by planting delay concerns due to forecast rains. The national average cash price for corn rose to $4.31¼, up 7¾ cents, even as ethanol-related data added pressure. February corn use for ethanol totaled 421.2 million bushels, down 10% from January and 5.4% below the same month last year. Nonetheless, year-to-date ethanol usage still sits 1.3% ahead of last season. Brazilian consultancy StoneX trimmed both first and second corn crop estimates slightly, now forecasting 129.7 MMT total corn production — down 0.9% from March’s outlook.
May 2025 Soybeans opened Wednesday at $10.29¾ per bushel, down 4½ cents from Tuesday’s sharp close of $10.34¼. Soybeans led Tuesday’s rally, gaining 19½ cents on strong soyoil support and biofuel policy speculation. Despite that futures strength, the national cash price fell by 21¾ cents to $9.79. Soymeal prices were mixed, while soyoil rose substantially by 124 to 255 points. Biofuel and oil industry representatives reportedly urged the EPA to raise the biodiesel blending mandate to between 5.5 and 5.75 billion gallons — well above the current 3.35 billion. USDA’s February crush data showed 189.01 million bushels processed, slightly above expectations but still down 2.3% from a year earlier. StoneX revised Brazil’s soybean output forecast down to 167.54 MMT (from 168.3 MMT), noting drought in southern states and strength in Mato Grosso. March exports rose to 16.09 MMT.
Key Global Market Drivers
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture reaffirmed its wheat export ceiling for the 2024/25 season at 16.2 MMT despite high shipment volumes so far. Nearly 13 MMT have already been exported, with an additional 1 MMT expected in April. The ministry emphasized no policy changes are planned, citing adherence to the existing memorandum.
Export activity from the U.S. showed mixed momentum. USDA’s weekly grain inspections for the week ending March 27 revealed 1.614 million tons of corn inspected — an increase from last year — alongside 793k tons of soybeans (including 622k to China) and 436k tons of wheat, mostly to Mexico.
Winter wheat crop conditions held steady in Kansas but declined in Oklahoma (to 33% good/excellent) and Texas (to 26%). National Crop Progress reports will resume next Monday, but regional drought continues to pressure crop ratings.
Weather patterns across major growing regions remain mixed. North America faces heavy precipitation this week — up to 175mm above normal in parts of the Corn Belt — while cooler temperatures are forecast to persist in the East through mid-April. In contrast, Argentina’s Pampas is expected to stay dry, supporting corn harvest progress, and central Brazil faces a split rainfall pattern.
Argus cut its estimate for Russia’s 2025/26 wheat crop to 80.3 MMT, down from 81.5 MMT. The downward revision stems from reduced spring wheat planting. However, winter wheat estimates rose to 56 MMT due to improved post-winter conditions.
Australian wheat output is expected to fall 16.1% year-over-year to 28.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season. Drought in Victoria and South Australia and planting delays due to excess rain in NSW and Queensland are compounding challenges. Despite falling global futures, prices in Adelaide rose to A$385/ton.
In South America, wheat prices have climbed in Brazil and Argentina through Q1, with Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná showing the strongest OTC gains. Meanwhile, U.S. wheat continues to face pressure from a strong dollar and weaker competitiveness.
USDA’s latest soybean crush figures showed a February total of 188.7 million bushels, down 11.2% from January and 2.4% from the same month last year. Soyoil stocks ballooned to 2.268 billion pounds, an 8.5% monthly increase, reflecting slowing domestic demand.
Malaysian palm oil exports in March rose to 1.049 million metric tons, up from 1.009 million in February, according to Amspec Agri. The Malaysian futures market was closed on Tuesday due to a national holiday, following a recent 107 ringgit price jump.
India’s palm oil imports climbed 13.2% in March to 423,000 tons, but remained below seasonal norms. Dealers attribute this to palm oil’s price premium over soyoil. Meanwhile, India’s March soyoil imports surged 24% to 352,000 tons. Total edible oil imports rose 9.3% month-over-month to 968,000 tons.
Paraguay’s soybean exports were disrupted due to sediment buildup in the Paraguay River, delaying barge transit to Argentine crushers in Rosario. The flow has reportedly improved after recent dredging, but Argentina’s soybean processing industry remains vulnerable to logistics shocks.
U.S. corn producers raised alarms over proposed tariffs on the herbicide 2,4-D, which is heavily imported from China and India. The National Corn Growers Association warned of potential crop yield losses without adequate supply, while Corteva claimed low-priced imports were undercutting domestic products.
The latest U.S. agricultural sentiment index dropped from 152 to 140 in March, according to Purdue University. Lower crop prices and pessimistic outlooks contributed to both weaker current condition and future expectations components.