Wheat futures closed mixed on Wednesday, retreating slightly in Chicago while holding firmer in other markets. May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat settled at $5.39¼ per bushel, down 1¼ cents on the day. Kansas City HRW contracts gained 3 to 4 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat dipped by 1 to 2 cents. The strength in the HRW market came despite ongoing export struggles and a globally competitive market. French milling wheat is also trending lower, adding to pressure. USDA’s weekly export sales are expected to show between net reductions of 100,000 MT to net sales of 300,000 MT. Ukraine confirmed that it will maintain its wheat export cap at 16.2 MMT for 2024/25, with 13 MMT already shipped and another 1 MMT expected in April. Meanwhile, EU soft wheat exports are down 36% year-over-year, totaling just 15.7 MMT so far this season.

Corn futures moved lower across the board at midweek, with May 2025 Corn closing at $4.57¾ per bushel, down 4 cents. Nearby cash corn prices also eased, with the national average dropping 3¾ cents to $4.27½. U.S. ethanol production offered some bullish relief, with a 10,000 bpd increase to 1.063 million bpd, while stocks dropped to 26.612 million barrels. Export expectations remain strong, with Thursday’s USDA data forecast to show 0.8 to 1.6 MMT in old crop sales. On the geopolitical front, President Trump’s new “Liberation Day” tariffs will apply to Japan (24%), South Korea (25%), and Colombia (10%), but exclude Mexico and Canada. Brazil’s corn outlook was revised lower by StoneX to 129.7 MMT, with both the first and second crop trimmed slightly due to yield declines in key regions.

Soybean futures ended slightly lower on Wednesday after recovering from deeper intraday losses. May 2025 Soybeans settled at $10.29½ per bushel, down 4¾ cents. National cash soybean prices fell by 5 cents to $9.73, while soymeal futures dropped $3.20 to $5.10/ton, and soyoil gained 66 to 111 points. USDA confirmed a private sale of 135,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines, helping to buoy market interest. Traders now await Thursday’s export sales report, expected to show 250,000 to 800,000 MT in old crop soybean sales and up to 50,000 MT in new crop bookings. StoneX cut its Brazilian soybean production forecast to 167.5 MMT, down from 168.3 MMT, but still sees a record crop. March soybean exports from Brazil rose to 16.09 MMT, up from the prior 15.56 MMT estimate.

Key Global Market Drivers

Ukraine reaffirmed its 2024/25 wheat export limit at 16.2 MMT, despite a strong export pace, with 13 MMT already exported and 1 MMT expected in April. The government confirmed no changes to the memorandum governing these limits.

USDA grain inspection data for the week ending March 27 showed strong corn activity at 1.614 million tons, up from last year. Soybeans came in at 793k tons, with 622k tons going to China, while wheat inspections were lower at 436k tons, mostly heading to Mexico.

Winter wheat condition ratings were stable in Kansas at 49% good/excellent, but Oklahoma and Texas deteriorated to 33% and 26%, respectively. Drought persists across the Southern Plains, raising concerns over yield potential.

Heavy rainfall — up to 175mm above normal — is forecast this week in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, which could slow early planting. Eastern U.S. regions are also expected to stay cooler through mid-April, while Argentina remains dry and Brazil faces a split rainfall pattern.

Argus revised its Russian 2025/26 wheat production estimate down to 80.3 MMT, with spring wheat lowered due to reduced plantings. Winter wheat, however, was revised up to 56 MMT thanks to favorable post-winter conditions.

Australia’s wheat output is forecast to decline 16.1% year-over-year to 28.6 MMT for 2025/26 due to drought in key areas and planting delays from heavy rains in NSW and Queensland. Despite falling global futures, Adelaide prices rose to A$385/ton.

Brazil and Argentina saw wheat prices rise through Q1, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná. In contrast, U.S. wheat is still under pressure from a strong dollar and poor global competitiveness.

USDA’s February soybean crush was reported at 188.7 million bushels, down 11.2% from January and 2.4% year-over-year. Soyoil stocks rose to 2.268 billion pounds, up 8.5% month-over-month, suggesting weaker demand.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports for March totaled 1.049 million tons, up from 1.009 million in February. The country’s futures market remained closed Tuesday for a holiday.

India imported 423,000 tons of palm oil in March, up 13.2%, but still below average. Soyoil imports surged 24% to 352,000 tons, while sunflower oil fell 15.5% to 193,000 tons. Total edible oil imports rose 9.3% month-over-month to 968,000 tons.

Paraguayan soybean exports were delayed due to sediment buildup in the Paraguay River, disrupting barge flows to Argentine crushers. While river conditions have improved, Argentina’s processors remain sensitive to logistical interruptions.

U.S. corn farmers voiced concerns over potential tariffs on the herbicide 2,4-D, imported primarily from China and India. The National Corn Growers Association warned of crop yield losses and cost hikes, while Corteva argued low-priced imports are undermining domestic supply.

Purdue University’s U.S. Ag Sentiment Index fell to 140 in March, down from 152 in February, as producers cited falling crop prices and a negative outlook for future profitability.