May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat opened Thursday’s session at $5.30¼ per bushel, down 9 cents from Wednesday’s close of $5.39¼. The wheat market remains weighed down by weak global competitiveness and export headwinds, despite slight resilience in HRW contracts. Kansas City HRW gained 3 to 4 cents at Wednesday’s close, while Minneapolis spring wheat dipped by 1 to 2 cents. French milling wheat prices remain just off multi-month lows, and U.S. export sales expectations are cautious, with the USDA’s upcoming report forecast to show between net reductions of 100,000 MT and net sales of 300,000 MT. Ukraine reaffirmed its wheat export ceiling of 16.2 MMT for 2024/25, with 13 MMT already shipped and another 1 MMT anticipated in April. EU soft wheat exports remain sluggish, down 36% year-over-year.

May 2025 Corn began Thursday’s session at $4.50½ per bushel, marking a 7¼ cent drop from Wednesday’s close of $4.57¾. Corn futures closed the previous session down 4 cents, with early losses accelerating as traders responded to newly released U.S. tariffs. Cash corn prices fell by 3¾ cents to $4.27½, despite a bullish uptick in ethanol output, which rose 10,000 barrels per day to 1.063 million bpd. Inventories declined 2.7% to 26.612 million barrels. Export sales are forecast to range between 0.8 and 1.6 MMT for old crop corn. Tariffs set to take effect on April 9 will target Japan (24%), South Korea (25%), and Colombia (10%). StoneX revised Brazil’s corn production outlook downward to 129.7 MMT, citing slightly reduced yields in key growing areas.

May 2025 Soybeans opened Thursday at $10.08½ per bushel, sharply lower by 21 cents compared to Wednesday’s close of $10.29½. Soybean futures ended Wednesday in the red, down 2 to 5 cents after partially recovering from deeper losses earlier in the session. Cash soybean prices dropped 5 cents to $9.73, while soymeal futures declined by $3.20 to $5.10/ton. Soyoil prices, on the other hand, rose 66 to 111 points. The USDA confirmed a private sale of 135,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines, which provided modest support. However, market pressure intensified following the announcement of 34% reciprocal tariffs on China (54% including prior tariffs) and 20% on the EU. Traders now look to Thursday’s USDA export data, which is expected to show 250,000–800,000 MT in old crop soybean sales and up to 50,000 MT in new crop bookings. StoneX cut its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 167.5 MMT, slightly down from the prior 168.3 MMT, though March export volumes rose to 16.09 MMT.

Key Global Market Drivers

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement caused immediate turmoil in agricultural markets. The U.S. has now imposed at least a 10% tariff on all global exporters, with much steeper rates for countries like China (34%), Japan (24%), and South Korea (25%). This triggered significant losses across U.S. crop futures. China’s soybean purchases have already shifted toward Brazil, raising concerns about U.S. market share.

U.S. Export Sales data due Thursday is under close scrutiny. For the week ending March 27, corn sales are expected between 0.8–1.6 MMT, soybeans 250,000–800,000 MT, wheat up to 300,000 MT, and soymeal and soyoil also forecast within moderate ranges.

USDA grain inspection data from last week showed strong corn activity at 1.614 million tons, with soybean inspections at 793k tons (622k to China) and wheat at 436k tons, mostly bound for Mexico.

In Mexico, soybean imports for 2025/26 are projected to increase 1% to meet rising demand for vegetable oil and feed, as domestic production continues to lag behind at just 8% of consumption. Oilseed imports are expected to hold steady at 7.7 MMT.

India’s wheat crop for 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record 115 million tons, buoyed by higher acreage and optimal growing conditions. However, export bans are likely to stay in place due to ongoing inflation concerns.

Russia distributed the remainder of its wheat export quota (10.6 MMT) among 24 companies. Grain Gates secured the largest allocation at 2.4 MMT. Drought conditions in the Southern District are being monitored closely despite modest improvements in soil moisture in the Central District.

Russia’s wheat production estimate was slightly raised to 79.8 MMT, with increases in winter wheat offsetting lower spring wheat plantings. Ongoing dry weather and potential frost are risks to be monitored.

In Paraguay, soybean production remains unchanged at 9.7 MMT thanks to favorable harvest weather. Drier conditions expected in the Southeastern Oriental region should support continued progress.

In Brazil, soybean seed piracy is causing estimated annual losses of $1.76 billion. A study revealed that 11% of planted soybean area in the 2023/24 season used pirated seeds, with the potential for long-term tax and R&D revenue losses.

Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s palm oil output estimates were trimmed slightly for 2024/25 due to adverse weather and the Ramadan holiday period. However, global prices remain firm despite declining demand, supported by tight inventories and elevated export levies.

Palm oil prices declined slightly overnight to 4490 ringgit/ton (-0.60%) but remain at elevated levels. The recent pullback may be capped due to continued logistical constraints and weather-related production volatility.

Across North America, heavy rain is forecast through the weekend, especially across the Delta, Midwest, and Southern Plains. While helpful in easing drought conditions in some areas, historic flooding in others could delay planting and damage early spring crops. Cooler temperatures will also slow fieldwork recovery.

Overall, Thursday’s trading session will remain heavily influenced by geopolitical trade developments and upcoming USDA export data, with weather and global production trends continuing to shape market sentiment.