Wheat
Wheat markets entered Tuesday’s trading session with renewed support across all major U.S. contracts. May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat opened at $5.36½ per bushel after gaining 7½ cents on Monday, marking a solid start to the week. This recovery was driven by speculative positioning and a slight improvement in crop condition sentiment, despite winter wheat good/excellent ratings standing at only 48%, well below last year’s 56%. Kansas City HRW rose by 1 to 3 cents, while Minneapolis HRS wheat posted 8 to 10 cent gains. The USDA’s Crop Progress report pegged winter wheat heading at 5%, in line with the five-year average, while spring wheat planting was reported at 3%. Export inspections, however, were weaker, totaling 334,888 MT — down 33% week-on-week and 35% lower than the same week last year. Still, total exports for the marketing year are 15.1% ahead of last year, with Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines remaining key buyers.

Corn
Corn futures extended their upward momentum into Tuesday, opening at $4.64½ per bushel after Monday’s 4¼ cent gain. Despite broader market volatility, corn received support from firm export data and strong cash market prices. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.583 MMT, slightly down from the previous week but up over 8% year-on-year. Mexico led all destinations, followed by Japan, South Korea, and Colombia. U.S. corn planting reached 2% as of April 6, matching the five-year average. Political tensions remain in focus, particularly Japan’s 24% retaliatory tariff on U.S. imports. However, negotiations between U.S. officials and their Japanese counterparts are reportedly underway. Meanwhile, the Brazilian harvest has progressed efficiently, and expectations of improved second-crop yields are placing additional pressure on global prices.

Soybeans
Soybean markets showed signs of recovery, opening Tuesday at $9.83 per bushel after a 6-cent gain on Monday. Soymeal rose by $1.80 to $5.30/ton, while soyoil futures dipped by 69 to 98 points. Market attention remains fixated on the escalating trade standoff between the U.S. and China. President Trump issued a deadline for China to reverse its 34% retaliatory tariff or face an additional 50% increase. Despite the uncertainty, USDA’s export inspections for the week ending April 3 showed strong performance at 804,270 MT — a 63.5% rise from the same week last year and the third-highest for this week since 2002. China alone received 341,278 MT, mostly shipped before the tariff took effect. Brazil’s harvest reached 88% completion, maintaining pressure on global supply and prices.

Key Global Market Drivers

Brazil’s Miritituba port, a crucial Amazon terminal responsible for over 10% of national soybean exports, continues to face severe disruptions due to Indigenous-led protests and deteriorating infrastructure. Road blockades have cut throughput by an estimated 12,000 tons per hour, with truck delays stretching up to three days. With the Supreme Court yet to rule on land rights issues, further escalation is possible.

China’s sweeping countermeasures against recent U.S. tariffs include a 34% blanket duty on American goods, restrictions on rare earth exports, and bans on U.S. poultry and sorghum. Investigations into U.S. companies for anti-dumping and antitrust violations add to the uncertainty. These actions are poised to significantly disrupt U.S. grain flows to Asia and threaten long-term soybean and corn demand.

Argentina’s Vicentin halted operations at its Ricardone and Avellaneda plants amid unresolved bankruptcy proceedings. The closures jeopardize global supplies of soybean oil and meal, as Argentina remains a dominant exporter. While temporary, these disruptions could tighten availability in the near term and raise international prices if unresolved.

Brazil’s soybean harvest stood at 85.83% as of April 3, according to Patria Agronegocios — outpacing last year’s 79.36% and the five-year average of 83.1%. Despite the pace, persistent logistical challenges and falling prices are limiting the upside for local producers. Brazil is expected to strengthen its grip on global soybean markets due to U.S.-China tensions.

Corn prices in Brazil continue to trend lower, pressured by weak domestic demand and better-than-expected second-crop production. Cepea’s benchmark index fell 3.5% from late March to April 3. While logistical improvements are noted in some regions, sellers remain cautious, holding back supply in hopes of price stabilization.

Soybean prices remain under pressure globally due to high U.S. stockpiles and an aggressive Brazilian harvest. U.S. inventories hit 51.99 million tons on March 1, while expected planting is set to drop 3% year-on-year. Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ indexes showed minor declines, although rising export premiums offer some support. However, overall sentiment remains bearish.

The latest export performance from the U.S. remains concerning, with January soybean shipments down 12% year-on-year to 4.93 million tons. Outstanding sales stand at 8.88 million tons, lagging behind the previous year. Meanwhile, Brazil is projected to export 110.2 million tons in 2024/25, further tightening its grip on the global market.

China announced a new agricultural policy aiming to raise domestic grain production capacity to 1.4 trillion catty by 2027. The strategy emphasizes food self-reliance, technological advancement, and income protection for farmers. If successful, the plan could significantly reduce Chinese grain imports over time, particularly in corn and soybeans.

Flooding continues to pose challenges in the U.S. Delta and Midwest, delaying planting and stressing wheat development. Cold snaps have impacted Kansas and parts of the Black Sea region. Argentina experienced weekend frosts threatening corn and soybean fields, while Brazil remains dry across key corn-producing areas, affecting pollination. Frost events in Eastern Europe and Ukraine may also trim wheat yields.

Malaysia’s palm oil market saw a modest rebound overnight, rising 2 ringgit (+0.05%) to 4,187. Meanwhile, Indonesia is preparing to adjust its export tax on crude palm oil to offset the effects of increased U.S. duties. These policy changes could relieve pressure on exporters while influencing regional edible oil pricing.

Argentina’s biggest labor union CGT announced a nationwide strike for April 9–10, expected to disrupt port activity during peak soybean and corn harvest season. With port operations likely to pause, global grain supply chains may face short-term delays — adding another layer of complexity to an already strained logistics landscape.

Ukraine’s wheat production for 2025/26 is projected at 23.7 million tons by Argus, unchanged from previous forecasts. The harvest area is expected to increase to 5.25 million hectares, with average yields above the five-year norm. While soil moisture is a concern in central regions, recent rainfall has improved the crop outlook. Ukraine’s wheat output may reach its highest level since 2021/22.

As Tuesday unfolds, grain markets remain sensitive to ongoing trade diplomacy, planting progress updates, and export developments. With futures strengthening moderately, traders remain cautious but alert to changing signals across global agriculture.