Wheat
Wheat futures closed Wednesday higher for the third consecutive day, continuing a short-term rebound driven by speculative short-covering and weather concerns. The May 2025 Chicago SRW contract closed at $5.42¼ per bushel, up 2¼ cents. Kansas City HRW rose by 5–7 cents, while Minneapolis HRS gained 7–8 cents in the front months. Market momentum was supported by President Trump's announcement of a 90-day global tariff pause, excluding China, with tariffs on Chinese goods rising to 125%. Traders also anticipated Thursday's USDA WASDE report, with U.S. wheat ending stocks projected at 825 million bushels. While U.S. exports remain sluggish, the market is cautiously optimistic ahead of potential supply revisions.

Corn
Corn futures posted moderate gains by session’s end, buoyed by trade relief news and favorable export sentiment. The May 2025 corn contract closed at $4.74 per bushel, up 5 cents. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price increased to $4.46½. Despite a 42,000 barrel per day drop in ethanol production last week, stockpiles climbed to 27.034 million barrels. Export sales for old crop are expected between 0.7–1.3 MMT, and the USDA may trim U.S. ending stocks to around 1.51 billion bushels in today’s WASDE update. South American corn projections are also under watch, with Brazil’s output revised slightly upward.

Soybeans
Soybeans led the rally midweek, with May 2025 contracts closing at $10.12¾ per bushel, marking a strong 20 cent gain. The national cash bean price surged to $9.59¾, soymeal rose by $3.50/ton, and soyoil gained up to 141 points. The market reacted positively to a new private sale of 198,000 MT to unknown destinations and signs of easing tariffs for non-Chinese trade partners. Nonetheless, Chinese tariffs rising to 125% on U.S. goods starting April 10 threaten long-term demand. The upcoming WASDE is anticipated to show steady U.S. carryout at 379 million bushels, with little change to South American figures.

Key Global Drivers Impacting Today’s Grain Markets

India has quickly become a major alternative supplier of rapeseed meal to China after Beijing implemented a 100% tariff on Canadian imports. In the last three weeks, China purchased 52,000 tons of Indian rapeseed meal — quadruple the total imported from India in all of 2024. This surge is lifting Indian prices and reshaping protein meal trade flows worldwide.

Brazilian indigenous protesters lifted a blockade on the critical BR-230 Trans-Amazonian Highway, restoring flow to Miritituba port — a key artery for more than 10% of national grain exports. While the road has reopened, poor infrastructure still causes three-day delays for grain trucks. A Supreme Court meeting on Indigenous land rights is scheduled for April 15.

Weather remains a mixed driver globally. In the U.S., expected dry conditions over the next 10 days may help recover flood-damaged areas in the Midwest but exacerbate drought in the Plains. Argentina stays dry and cool, while Brazil faces warm and wet weather — both affecting corn and soybean development in crucial phases.

U.S.-China trade tensions escalated sharply this week. New reciprocal tariffs bring duties to 125% on Chinese goods and 125% on U.S. goods, directly threatening U.S. soybean exports. While March shipments to China surged 25% to 1.926 million tons, trade is expected to pause after April 10. Analysts foresee rising U.S. ending stocks and a sharp drop in 2025/26 demand.

Brazil's soybean exports in February–March hit a record 21.1 million tons, outpacing the 2023/24 season. Despite regional weather issues, Brazil remains the dominant supplier globally and will likely benefit from diverted Chinese demand amid the U.S.-China dispute.

In Europe, soft wheat exports declined by 34% year-over-year to 16.4 million tons as of April 6. Nigeria, Morocco, and Algeria remain top destinations. Barley exports are down 19%, while corn imports are up 13%, reflecting shifts in Europe’s grain trade structure.

Russia is set to double its corn exports to 4 million tons in 2025/26, from 2.6 million tons this year. Total grain production could reach 129.5 million tons, supported by favorable forecasts and stable output across key commodities.

Ukraine maintains its wheat production outlook at 19.9 million tons for 2025/26. Despite improved rainfall, moisture levels in key regions remain at six-year lows. No major frost damage has been recorded, but the situation remains closely monitored.

In the U.S. biofuels sector, lawmakers and industry groups are urging the EPA to raise the biomass diesel mandate to 5.25 billion gallons for 2026, up from the current 3.35 billion. The push aims to support rural economies and expand demand for agricultural feedstocks.

Ethanol output dropped to 1.021 million barrels per day last week, but stockpiles rose to 27.034 million barrels. The U.S. ethanol sector continues to play a pivotal role in corn demand, and all eyes are on the EIA’s updated production and inventory numbers.

China’s agriculture ministry granted preliminary approval for 97 GM corn and 2 soybean varieties. While commercial cultivation is still pending final certification, this development signals a major shift in China’s ag biotech policy and could influence long-term import needs.

As Thursday trading begins, all focus turns to the USDA’s WASDE report. With trade volatility and global weather patterns in flux, today’s data may set the tone for grain prices in the weeks to come.