Wheat

The wheat complex ended Thursday in the red after a three-day rally, pressured by a more bearish-than-expected USDA report. The May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat contract closed at $5.38 per bushel, down 4¼ cents. Kansas City HRW futures fell between 7–10 cents, and Minneapolis HRS wheat dropped 5–7 cents. U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised by 27 million bushels to 846 million, exceeding analyst expectations. This adjustment stemmed from higher import estimates and lower export and seed use projections. Meanwhile, global wheat ending stocks also increased to 260.7 million metric tons. Export data showed U.S. wheat sales of 107,280 metric tons last week, including 92,800 MT to unknown buyers and 40,000 MT to Nigeria. New crop sales reached 107,728 MT, with strong interest from Japan and Mexico.

Corn

Corn futures advanced on Thursday following the release of the USDA’s updated figures. The May 2025 corn contract settled at $4.83 per bushel, gaining 9 cents. CmdtyView's national cash corn price also jumped 9¼ cents to $4.55¾. USDA’s WASDE report slashed U.S. ending stocks by 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion, reflecting stronger export projections. Weekly corn sales were reported at 785,583 MT, a 13-week low but within expectations, with South Korea, Colombia, and Japan among the top buyers. Brazil’s corn production was revised upward to 124.75 million tons, while Argentina’s estimate was raised to 48.5 million tons by the Rosario Grains Exchange. Global corn stocks were reduced to 287.65 million tons.

Soybeans

Soybeans led the gains on Thursday as the market responded positively to the USDA’s report and strong export performance. May 2025 contracts closed at $10.29 per bushel, up 16¼ cents. The national cash bean price rose 17 cents to $9.76¾. Soymeal futures added $2.10–$3.50/ton, and soyoil futures closed 4–13 points higher. Soybean sales for the week were reported at 172,324 MT, an 8-week low, but China accounted for the majority, buying 141,300 MT. The USDA reduced U.S. soybean ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 375 million, citing higher crush demand. Brazilian soybean production was revised slightly up to 167.87 million tons, while Argentina's was lowered to 45.5 million tons. Global carryout was adjusted to 122.47 million tons, supported by a larger carry-in.

Key Global Drivers Shaping the Grain Market

China-U.S. trade relations continue to escalate with tariffs now totaling 125% on both sides. The impact is most significant for U.S. soybean exports, with expectations that shipments to China will plummet post-April 10. While March saw strong sales of 1.926 million tons, the next weeks may bring a sharp decline. The shift is expected to lead to higher U.S. ending stocks in 2025/26 and increased competitiveness outside of China, especially for Brazil.

Brazil's soybean exports remain robust. February–March shipments totaled 21.1 million tons, a new record. However, adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul prompted a slight reduction in 2024/25 production estimates to 109.3 million tons. Still, Brazil stands to benefit from diverted Chinese demand and favorable export conditions.

Argentina's grain outlook is evolving. The Rosario Exchange raised the 2024/25 corn crop forecast to 48.5 million tons, while cutting the soybean forecast to 45.5 million tons due to persistent dryness. The soybean supply situation remains tight, while corn has export potential.

A 24-hour nationwide strike in Argentina disrupted operations at the Rosario agro-port hub, a key artery for global shipments of soybean oil, meal, corn, and wheat. No vessels could dock or depart, compounding concerns about logistics in one of the world’s top grain exporters.

Russia’s winter grain crop condition has improved. IKAR now estimates total grain output for 2025 at 129.5 million tons, up from 126 million last year. Wheat is forecast at 82.5 million tons. These figures ease earlier fears of frost damage and point to stronger global supply potential.

Ethanol stocks in the U.S. rose to 27.034 million barrels despite a production decline to 1.021 million barrels per day. Corn demand from the biofuel sector remains essential, and market participants are watching ethanol output closely.

In Brazil, the Safrinha corn crop is entering its critical growth phase amid concerning moisture deficits. Production stands at 124.2 million tons, slightly down from prior estimates. Recent warm, dry weather affected much of the Central-West and Southeast, with only parts of Paraná seeing adequate rainfall.

The USDA expects Pakistan’s wheat imports to surge in 2025/26 to 1.7 million tons, a sharp increase from 100,000 tons the previous year. This is due to a 13% year-on-year decline in domestic output to 27.5 million tons caused by drought conditions.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose 3.52% in March to 1.56 million tons, marking the first increase in six months. Production rebounded 16.76% month-over-month, while imports jumped 82.5% due to Ramadan demand and favorable Indonesian export conditions.

Warm and dry weather across most of Australia is aiding early wheat and rapeseed plantings. While Queensland may see some rainfall, overall conditions are ideal for planting progress through mid-April.

India has become an important rapeseed meal supplier to China, with 52,000 tons exported in the past three weeks — four times the total for all of 2024. This shift supports Indian domestic prices and alters global protein meal trade flows.

As Friday begins, markets continue to digest the WASDE data, tariff updates, and evolving weather patterns. Volatility is expected to persist, with traders closely monitoring potential policy changes and export flows. The tone for the rest of April will be shaped by how these dynamics unfold.