Market Overview: Wheat, Corn & Soybeans

Wheat
The wheat market closed Friday with strong gains across the board, rebounding after Thursday’s pressure from the USDA report. May 2025 Chicago SRW contracts finished at $5.55¾ per bushel, up 17¾ cents. Kansas City HRW contracts gained 10–11 cents, while Minneapolis HRS saw increases of 12–13 cents, with the May contract up 30½ cents. The uptick came despite an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks to 846 million bushels and global stocks reaching 260.7 million tons. Speculators trimmed their net short positions in SRW wheat, and French wheat ratings showed a minor weekly decline. A weaker U.S. dollar also provided support, closing below the 100 mark.

Corn
Corn futures strengthened further, with the May 2025 contract settling at $4.90¼ per bushel, a 7¼ cent gain. The national average cash corn price climbed to $4.62¾, up 7¼ cents. Weekly gains totaled 30 cents, supported by a sliding dollar and upbeat export momentum. U.S. export commitments reached 55.019 million metric tons — 85% of USDA’s projection — and commercial traders trimmed net short positions. CFTC data showed slight adjustments in speculative positions. Corn also found support from Brazil’s updated production outlook of 124.7 million tons and Argentina’s revised estimate of 48.5 million tons.

Soybeans
Soybeans led the rally again on Friday. May 2025 contracts closed at $10.42¾ per bushel, up 13¾ cents. The national cash bean price reached $9.90½, up 13¾ cents. Soymeal gained $1.70 to $2.50/ton, while soyoil surged by 79–112 points. A private export sale of 121,000 MT to unknown destinations added to the momentum. Soybean traders added 20,600 net long contracts, while commercials trimmed net shorts. The USDA reported soybean commitments at 46.343 MMT (93% of the USDA projection). Despite retaliatory Chinese tariffs of 125%, U.S. shipments held steady, while traders anticipated Tuesday’s NOPA crush report.

Key Global Drivers Impacting the Grain Market

China made one of the largest soybean purchases of 2025 from Brazil this week, booking at least 40 cargoes — equivalent to 2.4 million tons — amid worsening U.S.-China trade tensions. The 125% reciprocal tariffs between the two nations have made U.S. beans uncompetitive, while lower Brazilian prices and better crushing margins prompted the rush.

Brazilian soybean exports reached a historic high of 88.2 million tons by early April, with projections for the season at 172.1 million tons and exports likely to surpass 106 million tons. China remains the main buyer, absorbing most of the volume amid shifting trade flows.

Argentina revised its soybean forecast down to 45.5 million tons, citing persistent rainfall and delayed harvesting — only 2.6% of the area has been harvested, well behind historical averages. Early frosts in Buenos Aires province and uncertain fiscal policy have further reduced sales activity.

Corn production in Argentina, however, remains strong. The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its forecast to 48.5 million tons, with the harvest 23.1% complete — in line with last year — supported by a larger planted area.

A nationwide 24-hour strike in Argentina halted logistics at Rosario Port, one of the world’s most vital hubs for soybean oil, meal, corn, and wheat. The disruption adds to delays already caused by heavy rains and saturated fields.

In the U.S., Mississippi River grain shipments dropped significantly. Corn shipments declined 45%, and soybean volumes fell by over 50% week-over-week. Ethanol production fell to 1.021 million barrels/day, while inventories rose to 27.034 million barrels, underscoring continued corn demand.

Weather continues to play a central role. Argentina’s cool, dry weather may benefit late corn but hinder soybeans. Brazil’s Safrinha crop, currently at 124.2 million tons, faces drought risks in the Central-West and Southeast regions. Scattered showers offered limited relief.

Europe is forecast to receive beneficial rains, while the Black Sea region will likely return to dry and warm conditions — a risk to Eurasian winter wheat. Meanwhile, Ukraine reported a 8.8% year-over-year drop in grain exports as of April 11, totaling 33.8 million tons. Corn exports are down 12%, and spring sowing is 16% behind last year.

Western Australia is expected to reduce its wheat planting area by 9% due to reduced fallow land and dryness. However, canola and barley acreage may increase depending on May rainfall.

India imported nearly 1 million tons of vegetable oil in March, driven by spikes in soybean and palm oil demand during Ramadan. Soybean oil imports surged to 355,358 tons, highlighting strong seasonal demand.

Brazil’s Santos Port, a major grain export terminal, plans to expand its cargo capacity by 67% by 2035, with container capacity set to double in four years. This expansion will boost Brazil’s long-term competitiveness in global agricultural trade.

As the week wraps up, market participants remain focused on U.S. export data, global weather shifts, and ongoing trade disputes. With volatility likely to persist, next week’s movements may be heavily influenced by crop progress reports, shipping trends, and economic policy signals.