The global grain markets posted a broadly lower session on Monday, April 14, as futures across all three major crops retreated from last week’s highs. Despite robust export data and steady planting updates in the U.S., traders reassessed market positioning in light of global weather patterns, macroeconomic signals, and shifting trade flows.

Wheat futures fell sharply to start the week, giving back most of Friday’s gains. The May 2025 Chicago SRW contract closed at $5.47½ per bushel, down 8¼ cents. Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis HRS wheat futures also posted declines of 12 to 13 cents and 9 to 11 cents respectively. Pressure came from renewed rain forecasts for the Southern Plains, where precipitation may benefit the drought-stressed winter wheat crop. The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report showed spring wheat planting at 7%, matching the five-year average. U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 604,461 metric tons last week, up 80.4% from the prior week, with Mexico and Japan as top buyers.

Corn markets also trended lower, with May 2025 futures settling at $4.85 per bushel, down 5¼ cents. Early-week selling was likely influenced by reports showing 4% of the U.S. corn crop planted, in line with the seasonal norm. USDA announced a 120,000-ton export sale to Japan, while weekly corn export inspections surged to 1.829 million tons—up 34% from the previous week. Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan were key destinations. Ukraine’s corn production for 2025 is expected to jump 18% year-on-year to 29.2 million tons, according to APK-Inform.

Soybeans closed Monday mixed, with May 2025 futures ticking down 1 cent to $10.41¾ per bushel. Spot prices remain under pressure due to continued trade war tensions with China, despite strong export performance. Weekly inspections showed 546,348 metric tons shipped, with China still the top destination. Planting progress reached 2% in the U.S., matching the five-year average. Markets await Tuesday’s NOPA report, which is expected to show a record March crush of 197.6 million bushels.

Across the global grain landscape, weather and trade continued to dominate headlines.

Heavy rainfall in Argentina’s main agricultural regions has brought harvest delays and fears of soybean rot. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, soybean harvesting is 4 percentage points behind the five-year average. Saturated fields and foggy conditions are slowing progress, with producers worried about both quality losses and yield reductions. As of April 2, only 20% of the soybean crop had been sold—the slowest pace in a decade.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean oil exports are tightening due to rising domestic demand from the biodiesel sector. Although Brazil is on track for record soybean oil production of nearly 12 million metric tons, just 1.3 million tons are expected to be exported. The national blend mandate remains at 14% as of February 2025, though further biodiesel growth is expected to keep export volumes constrained.

Soybean prices in Brazil rose over the past week, supported by foreign demand and a weakening real. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 4.2% to BRL 137.66 per 60-kg bag. Still, strong harvest progress—now 85.3% complete—and record output projections of up to 169 million tons limit upward momentum.

In China, soybean imports in March dropped to just 3.5 million tons, the lowest March level since 2008. Year-to-date imports fell 7.9% to 17.11 million tons. The decline reflects both the escalating trade war with the U.S.—where China imposed tariffs of up to 135%—and harvest-related shipping delays in Brazil. Despite this, analysts forecast a record 31.3 million tons of soybean imports in Q2 2025 as Brazilian beans arrive in volume.

Corn prices in Brazil were mixed. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (São Paulo) rose to BRL 85.57 per 60-kg bag, up 0.9%, driven by domestic restocking ahead of holidays. Nationally, prices declined 2.8% on average, as supply remained ample. CONAB forecasts 2024/25 production at 124.74 million tons, an 8% year-on-year increase, with exports expected to decline to 34 million tons as domestic use rises.

In Ukraine, APK-Inform raised its forecast for the 2025 grain harvest to 57.5 million tons, up 8% from the previous year. Corn output is expected to rise by 18% to 29.2 million tons, while wheat will total 21.5 million tons. Exports are seen increasing by 11% to 42.6 million tons.

Vegetable oil markets remain tight. Global prices are elevated due to lower palm oil output in Southeast Asia and Brazil’s constrained soybean oil exports. Malaysian palm oil futures dropped 1% to 4,170 ringgit overnight, though the overall supply picture remains limited.

China’s rapeseed imports were revised upward by 1 million tons to 4 million tons for 2024/25, driven by accelerated buying following a 100% tariff on Canadian canola. At the same time, imports of rapeseed meal fell to 2.2 million tons, reflecting Beijing’s shifting sourcing strategy toward suppliers like Russia and Ukraine.

In livestock, USDA reported weekly U.S. beef production fell by 4.3%, while pork dropped 0.7%. Lower slaughter volumes and reduced output may soften domestic demand for corn and soymeal in feed rations over the short term.

In the U.S., weather remains a mixed picture. Scattered rains in the Northern Plains are improving soil moisture but long-term drought persists. The Midwest is forecast for continued storm activity into next week, threatening to delay fieldwork. The Southern Plains may receive beneficial rains for wheat, while the Delta continues to deal with flood recovery and standing water.

Overall, Monday’s session reflected a rebalancing of recent bullish sentiment. Traders appear cautious amid weather volatility, uncertain U.S.–China trade relations, and logistical issues in key producing countries. All eyes now turn to the upcoming NOPA report and updated planting progress to shape expectations for the rest of the week.