Wheat markets extended their losses into a second day, weighed down by renewed planting activity and regional weather forecasts in the U.S. The May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat contract settled at $5.42 per bushel, marking a decline of 5½ cents on the session. Kansas City HRW wheat finished 1 to 3 cents lower, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 3 to 4 cents. The USDA's Crop Progress report confirmed that 7% of the U.S. spring wheat crop is planted, consistent with the five-year average. Meanwhile, winter wheat conditions deteriorated slightly, especially in key HRW states like Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas. France increased its soft wheat planting estimate to 4.61 million hectares, a 10% jump from last year, while Argentina’s wheat outlook was revised up to 20.5 million tons.

Corn posted mixed performance, with nearby contracts edging down as the recent bullish spreads eased. The May 2025 corn contract closed at $4.81¼ per bushel, a drop of 3¾ cents. The planting pace in the U.S. reached 4%, tracking just behind the five-year norm. Export activity remained robust, with new sales of 110,000 tons to Portugal announced Tuesday following Monday’s 120,000-ton deal with Japan. However, rain forecasts in the central U.S.—from Iowa to Missouri and Kansas—pose short-term risks for fieldwork. Traders also await weekly ethanol production data due Wednesday, which may influence sentiment further.

Soybeans also experienced mild losses, with the May 2025 contract settling at $10.36 per bushel, down 5¾ cents. The USDA reported that 2% of the crop has been planted—on par with the five-year average. NOPA’s latest data revealed that 194.55 million bushels were crushed in March, an increase from February but slightly below last year’s level. Soy oil stocks declined nearly 20% from a year ago, supporting prices. Despite ongoing tensions with China, U.S. exports continue, with China remaining the top buyer last week. However, front-month soymeal and soy oil futures diverged, reflecting shifting product demand.

Key Market Developments and Global Trends

Trade war dynamics between the U.S. and China continue to dominate the global grain conversation. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization emphasized that South American nations—particularly Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay—stand to benefit from ongoing trade tensions by stepping in as alternative suppliers for countries like China. FAO’s chief economist noted that concentrated global supply and high energy and transport costs are inflating retail food prices, leaving import-dependent nations vulnerable.

In Argentina, weather remains a focal point. After weeks of heavy rainfall, the Pampas are beginning to dry out, allowing for resumed corn and soybean harvesting. Despite a recent exchange-rate overhaul that saw the peso float between 1,000 and 1,400 per dollar, sales activity remains slow. Farmers continue to prioritize fieldwork over sales, and uncertainty around future tax incentives adds to their hesitation. President Milei has urged growers to sell before temporary tax breaks expire at the end of June.

Brazil’s wheat sowing has started in states like Goiás and Minas Gerais, though major producers Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul will follow in May and June. According to CONAB, the wheat planting area is projected to decline by 9.3% year-over-year, but increased productivity may offset the drop. Total wheat production is estimated at 8.47 million tons, up 7.4% from 2024. Despite these gains, domestic availability will only slightly exceed last year’s levels.

France’s agriculture ministry has revised upward its estimate for soft wheat planting, projecting a 10% year-on-year increase to 4.63 million hectares. However, durum wheat acreage is at a 32-year low. Barley plantings are also down 3.6% compared to 2024. Improving winter conditions are expected to benefit crop development.

Brazil’s biodiesel industry is pushing for a hike in the national blending mandate from 14% to 15%, citing falling vegetable oil prices and expanded crushing capacity. The government postponed a decision in February over inflation concerns, but the current economic environment may allow for the change. Industry group Abiove believes the move would not significantly affect food prices and is urging prompt governmental approval.

In South Asia, India has forecast above-normal monsoon rains for the 2025 season, expected to reach 105% of the long-term average. The outlook is vital for grain production, especially rice and wheat, and could help stabilize domestic supply chains. The announcement provides some relief to farmers after an early onset of summer heatwaves.

Ukraine continues to grapple with the effects of a severe cold snap earlier in April, which brought sub-zero temperatures and snow across much of the country. Fieldwork was delayed, but subsequent rainfall has improved soil moisture levels. As of April 11, Ukrainian farmers had planted 1.25 million hectares of spring crops, including barley, wheat, peas, and oats.

Pakistan faces a projected 10.6% decline in wheat output in 2025, down to 28.6 million tons. The reduction is driven by a 7% decrease in cultivated area and prolonged dry weather. Officials estimate that total availability will fall short of national demand, increasing reliance on imports.

Germany was officially declared free of foot-and-mouth disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. The certification follows an isolated outbreak in January. With Britain having lifted its ban on German livestock imports, the move is expected to restore confidence in European meat markets.

In the U.S., moderate weather prevailed. The Midwest experienced isolated showers with a warming trend expected into the weekend, while the Plains remained mostly dry. Soil conditions continue to improve, supporting the early stages of planting.

On the macroeconomic front, U.S. trade policy continues to inject volatility into global markets. Fed Governor Waller outlined two possible tariff scenarios, with rate cuts more likely under a prolonged trade regime. Meanwhile, Trump granted temporary exemptions on some consumer electronics, easing immediate tensions. However, his administration also announced a ban on Argentine beef imports, complicating bilateral trade with Buenos Aires.

Soybean imports into China dropped to 3.5 million tons in March—the lowest March figure since 2008—while total Q1 imports were down 8% year-over-year. Argentina's harvest delays due to rainfall and shifting Chinese preferences for Brazilian soy continue to weigh on demand. Meanwhile, Russia reported rising oilseed stocks, though sunflower seed reserves dropped sharply year-on-year.

With volatile weather, shifting geopolitics, and realignments in global trade flows, grain traders remain alert. Futures markets are expected to stay choppy as players digest fresh data, government policy updates, and evolving field conditions heading deeper into the second half of April.