Wheat

Wheat markets began Thursday’s session on a firm note following a modest rebound during Wednesday’s close. May 2025 CBOT wheat futures opened at $5.47¾ per bushel, up 5¾ cents from the previous day’s session and showing an additional 4-cent increase in early trade. Kansas City HRW rose 3 to 5 cents, and Minneapolis HRS gained 1 to 3 cents. The market responded to moderately bullish export expectations and improving demand signals, including Algeria’s substantial purchase of 600,000–630,000 metric tons in a tender. On the supply side, SovEcon raised Russia’s 2025 wheat crop estimate to 79.7 million tons, driven by a stronger winter wheat outlook. However, USDA’s Crop Progress report showed U.S. winter wheat conditions declined to 47% rated good-to-excellent, with Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas struggling the most. In Europe, France remains optimistic, sustaining its expanded wheat acreage of 4.61 million hectares despite EU-wide exports down 35% year-on-year.

Corn

Corn futures started Thursday at $4.84¼ per bushel for May 2025, up 3 cents from Wednesday's close but down 1½ cents in early trade. Recent sessions saw steady performance despite ongoing concerns about rain across the Midwest, especially from the Gulf to the Great Lakes region, which could delay planting activities. Export sales expectations ranged between 600,000 to 1.8 million tons for old crop corn, with new crop seen at up to 300,000 tons. Ethanol figures released by the U.S. Department of Energy showed production dipped to 1.012 million barrels/day, down 9,000 barrels from the prior week. Stocks decreased by 220,000 barrels to 26.814 million. Exports of ethanol were at 137,000 bpd, and Brazil’s CONAB raised its national ethanol output forecast to 37.19 billion liters, primarily driven by sugarcane use. As the U.S. prepares for a long weekend with Good Friday closures, market participants remain cautious.

Soybeans

Soybean futures traded near flat in early Thursday action, with May 2025 contracts opening at $10.38¾ per bushel, mirroring Wednesday’s close with a minor increase of 1¼ cents in early movement. The soybean complex had shown gains midweek, with soymeal up $2.40–$3.30/ton and soy oil 15–24 points higher. CmdtyView’s cash price index for soybeans was $9.87¾, up 3 cents. March NOPA crush data came in slightly below expectations at 194.55 million bushels, but soy oil stocks dropped significantly to 1.498 billion pounds—down 19% year-over-year. While the U.S. government increased tariffs on China to 245%, markets showed minimal response, given Beijing’s passive stance. Export sales for soybeans were expected between 100,000 and 800,000 tons for old crop, with new crop bookings forecast at up to 150,000 tons.

Global Market Developments

China’s Cofco International continues expanding its operations in Brazil, reinforcing its strategic shift toward South American sourcing amid strained U.S.–China trade ties. Its grain terminal at Santos is expected to triple capacity to 14 million tons by 2026, contrasting with U.S. players like ADM and Cargill who are scaling back.

In Argentina, despite cooler weather slowing soybean and corn harvests, estimates for corn production in 2024/25 have edged up to 48.8 million tons. The soybean harvest, however, lags significantly, with just 4.9% of the area harvested—26 points behind the five-year average.

Brazil's soybean export engine continues to fire. Anec raised April's forecast to 14.5 million tons, with soymeal exports expected to reach 2.4 million tons. Rain is still needed in Central Brazil to support the Safrinha corn crop, though forecasts hint at improvement over the next 10–15 days.

Ukraine is expected to produce 27.9 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 season, up 14% year-on-year. Cold weather delayed early sowing, but soil moisture recovery bodes well for planting progress and yields, with total area projected at 4.2 million hectares.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s palm oil production is projected at 47 million tons in 2025/26, supported by high rainfall. However, increased domestic biodiesel demand—potentially with a new blend mandate above 40%—could limit export availability.

China reported a 1.2% year-on-year increase in Q1 pork output, totaling 16 million tons. Despite this, market conditions remain bearish due to oversupply and weak demand. Beijing has responded by advising producers to cut expansion and adjusting its national breeding sow target downward.

The EU’s soft wheat export performance continues to underwhelm, down 35% year-over-year to 16.7 million tons. FranceAgriMer slashed its non-EU soft wheat export forecast to 3.1 million tons, 70% lower than last season. Internal EU shipments were revised up slightly.

France, Poland, and Spain are set to receive rainfall over the coming weeks, offering potential relief to parched rapeseed-growing areas. However, Germany and Poland still face critical soil moisture deficits, posing a risk to yields.

The U.S. winter wheat outlook remains stable at 36.4 million tons, but low soil moisture in key areas remains a concern. Forecasts suggest warmer-than-normal weather ahead, lowering spring freeze risks, though sudden temperature drops could still pose a threat to jointing-stage wheat.

The Argentine ethanol sector, though behind Brazil and the U.S., has set a new record in 2024. Corn-based ethanol made up 60% of production, with sugarcane contributing the rest. However, Argentina only processes 4% of its corn into ethanol compared to 35% in the U.S. and over 13% in Brazil.

Finally, Argentina’s long-term potential for ethanol and biofuel development remains promising, especially in provinces like Córdoba, where E17 (17% corn-based bioethanol) blends are being tested. As flex-engine vehicles become more common, the push toward biofuel could enhance value-added agriculture and energy sustainability in the country.

As markets head into a shortened trading week, attention remains focused on weather, ethanol data, and export performance to determine the trajectory for prices across the major grains.