Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat futures for May 2025 began Tuesday’s session at $5.38½ per bushel, down 10¼ cents from the previous day. The market remains under pressure following Monday’s drop, which saw declines across all three U.S. wheat exchanges. Kansas City HRW futures opened lower by 6 to 7 cents, and Minneapolis HRS also slipped by 5 to 7 cents. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress showed 17% of U.S. spring wheat planted, ahead of the five-year average. However, conditions for winter wheat declined slightly, with 45% rated good-to-excellent. Despite strong export inspections of 510,250 metric tons—up 13.3% year-over-year—sentiment was weighed down by concerns over quality and unfavorable weather forecasts across the Plains. SovEcon’s upward revision of Russia’s wheat crop to 79.7 million tons offers a supply-side buffer, but slow March export activity and persistent drought concerns in key regions temper the optimism.

Corn

Corn futures for May 2025 opened Tuesday’s session at $4.81¾ per bushel, down ½ cent from Monday’s close. Prices struggled to maintain momentum despite favorable weekly export inspections, which reached 1.702 million metric tons—marking the strongest performance for this week since 2018. Crop Progress data showed U.S. corn planting reached 12%, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 10%. However, uneven field conditions due to weekend rain and cool temperatures in the Northern and Central Plains delayed additional progress. In South America, the Argentine Pampas remained dry, which facilitated harvest activity, while Brazil’s central growing regions received beneficial rains to support the safrinha corn crop. Global corn production estimates were revised upward by the International Grains Council—now projecting increases of 2 million tons for 2024/25 and 5 million tons for 2025/26—suggesting ample supply, though regional challenges persist.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for May 2025 opened at $10.29½ per bushel on Tuesday, down 7 cents from Monday’s close. The soybean complex was mixed, with soymeal weakening by $2.70 per ton and soyoil also trading down 7 to 9 points. National cash soybean prices slipped to $9.79½. The USDA reported that 8% of the soybean crop had been planted by Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 5%. Weekly export inspections came in at 550,924 metric tons—down slightly from the previous week, yet still 24.2% above the same week last year. Egypt led import destinations, followed by Mexico and China. Despite Brazil's continued export strength, low soybean inventories in China are driving crushers to stockpile amid fears of geopolitical tension and logistics disruptions. The International Grains Council adjusted global 2024/25 soybean output down by 1 million tons, holding steady on 2025/26 carryout projections at 83 million tons.

Key Market Drivers for Tuesday’s Global Grain Session

In the United States, weather remains the overriding influence. While the Northern Plains are forecast for isolated showers, much of the region remains drier than normal, helping to ease planting in some zones. However, heavy rainfall and localized flooding in parts of Texas, Missouri, and the Mississippi Delta have disrupted early fieldwork, particularly for corn and soybeans.

In Brazil, rainfall in Mato Grosso and other central states provided critical relief to safrinha corn during its pollination stage. Earlier in the month, dryness raised concerns, but current weather has restored optimism about yield outcomes. Argentina continues harvesting soybeans and corn under dry skies, with no significant rainfall expected—good news for fieldwork, but a challenge for winter wheat planting preparations.

Europe experienced widespread rainfall, which bolstered soil moisture and improved winter wheat conditions. Still, deficits in northeastern regions—especially Poland—raise concern over spring crop viability. France and Germany reported moderate improvement, although further precipitation will be necessary to offset moisture stress in key oilseed zones.

The Black Sea region saw accelerated crop development due to warm, dry conditions, particularly in Russia. Despite 90% of winter crops rated satisfactory, the lack of rain threatens yields. Meanwhile, logistical issues and export restrictions led to a 58% decline in Russia’s March grain shipments, reinforcing supply chain uncertainties.

China continues to hold the market's attention. Soybean imports in March were among the lowest in a decade, largely due to delays in Brazilian logistics. Nonetheless, a surge in shipments—potentially reaching 31.3 million tons between April and June—is expected. Domestic production is projected to rise 2.5%, but inventory shortages and trade tension risks are keeping pricing sentiment elevated.

Palm oil markets found support from a 2% dip in March exports out of Indonesia due to Ramadan-driven domestic consumption. However, overall March shipments were the highest in four years. With palm oil trading below soy oil, demand from India and Pakistan is expected to increase. Market support is also tied to declining production in Malaysia, where drought in Sabah has limited recovery despite March improvements.

In the U.S., the biofuel market offered underlying strength. March saw the generation of 1.21 billion ethanol and 573 million biodiesel credits, supporting steady blending activity. Speculation continues around expanding mandates, potentially increasing demand for corn and soybean oil later this year.

Improved barge logistics boosted U.S. grain movement, with corn shipments rising 71% and soybean shipments climbing 47% in the week ending April 12. Despite a slight dip in St. Louis barge rates, overall throughput efficiency improved, aiding supply chain flow.

The International Grains Council raised global grain stock projections to 580 million tons for 2025/26, with minor increases in wheat and corn. While the outlook points to slightly looser markets, stocks remain near 10-year lows, maintaining sensitivity to policy and climate shocks.

Finally, Brazilian grain markets felt price pressure, with CEPEA reporting a 2.1% decline in domestic corn values from April 10–16. Soybean prices also fell in ports like Paranaguá. However, ongoing harvest activity and strong export flows have helped maintain liquidity and keep buyers engaged.

As Tuesday’s session unfolds, grain markets are poised at a crossroads—balancing encouraging export data, evolving weather patterns, and persistent macroeconomic headwinds. Volatility remains a defining theme, with all eyes on the next USDA updates and export shipment pace from Brazil and the Black Sea.