Wheat

Wheat futures ended Tuesday in the red across all major U.S. contracts, continuing their downward slide from earlier in the week. The May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat contract settled at $5.35½ per bushel, down 3 cents on the day. Kansas City HRW contracts lost between 4 and 6 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat futures were 3 to 5 cents lower. The market was pressured by deteriorating U.S. winter wheat crop conditions, now rated at just 45% good-to-excellent according to USDA data. Illinois, Colorado, South Dakota, and Kansas led in week-over-week ratings declines, while Texas and Missouri saw improvements. Spring wheat planting reached 17%, outpacing the five-year average of 12%, although some northern states like Minnesota remain behind. Meanwhile, the EU's wheat import pace surged to 16.76 million metric tons—well ahead of last year—adding global context to the supply-demand equation.

Corn

Corn futures weakened into Tuesday’s close, with May 2025 contracts ending at $4.75¾ per bushel, down 6 cents. The pressure followed weather concerns and slower-than-expected planting in some key Midwestern states. Despite planting progress exceeding the five-year national average—thanks to advanced work in Iowa and Nebraska—rainfall across the Plains and Midwest may stall activity. Monday’s USDA Crop Progress highlighted slower progress in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. National emergence reached 2%, in line with average. Meanwhile, CmdtyView’s national cash corn price declined by 6 cents to $4.48½. In South America, Brazil’s corn outlook brightened, with Dr. Michael Cordonnier raising the national production estimate by 3 million tons to 125 MMT. Argentina’s estimate also rose to 48 MMT.

Soybeans

Soybean futures firmed on Tuesday, with May 2025 contracts closing at $10.35 per bushel, up 5½ cents. Cash prices rose 6¾ cents to $9.85¼. While soymeal futures added 80 cents to $1.00/ton, soy oil weakened by 4 to 28 points. The soybean market was buoyed by comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting potential diplomatic progress with China, a sentiment that sparked optimism amid ongoing trade concerns. The USDA reported 8% of the U.S. soybean crop had been planted—three percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Iowa and Illinois are leading the way with 11% and 10% planted, respectively. EU soybean imports from July to April rose to 11.22 MMT, up 9% year-over-year, with meal imports also sharply higher.

Global Grain Market Developments – Tuesday Highlights

Weather continues to be the dominant driver across the global grain landscape. In North America, the Northern Plains remain mostly dry, facilitating planting, while the Central and Southern Plains are grappling with above-normal temperatures and scattered storms. The Midwest faces similarly variable conditions, with precipitation delays persisting through Friday.

In South America, Argentina’s Pampas continue to enjoy harvest-friendly dry weather, even as drought limits long-term soil replenishment. Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is benefitting from vital rainfall across key central growing states. Paraguay, however, is battling warm and wet conditions that could slow harvest momentum.

European crop conditions are steadily improving thanks to widespread precipitation, particularly across France and Germany. However, northeastern countries such as Poland continue to suffer from soil moisture deficits, threatening spring crop potential unless further rainfall materializes soon.

The Black Sea region remains in focus as dry and warm conditions accelerate crop development in Russia. Despite 90% of winter wheat being rated in satisfactory condition, the ongoing dryness threatens final yield outcomes. Russian wheat exports fell 58% in March due to bottlenecks and quotas, raising fresh concerns about the region’s export reliability.

China remains a two-sided story. March soybean imports were only 3.5 million tons—the lowest in over a decade—due to delays in Brazilian shipments. However, imports are expected to rebound sharply between April and June. Domestic production is projected to grow 2.5%, but tight inventories and geopolitical uncertainties are pushing risk premiums into prices.

Palm oil markets gained support from Indonesia’s 2% drop in March exports due to Ramadan-driven domestic demand. Nonetheless, shipments were the strongest for March in four years. Malaysia’s Sabah region continues to experience drought, capping any substantial recovery in palm oil production. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects 2025 output to decline to 19 MMT, down from 19.3 MMT last year.

U.S. biofuel indicators remain constructive. The EPA reported the issuance of 1.21 billion ethanol and 573 million biodiesel blending credits for March, signaling continued robust blending activity and strengthening the outlook for corn and soy oil demand amid policy expansion discussions.

Grain logistics are improving along U.S. inland waterways. For the week ending April 12, corn barge shipments rose 71% while soybean shipments climbed nearly 47%. Although barge freight rates in St. Louis ticked lower, throughput efficiency continues to improve.

The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global grain stocks forecast to 580 million tons. This includes a 1-million-ton upward revision for both wheat and corn. While this indicates slightly looser supply, global stocks remain near decade lows, sustaining market sensitivity to shocks.

Lastly, Brazilian corn and soybean prices showed softness. CEPEA data reported a 2.1% decline in domestic corn prices from April 10–16. Soybeans also weakened at major export hubs like Paranaguá. Still, strong export volumes and harvest activity are maintaining liquidity and buyer engagement.

As the week progresses, all eyes will be on the USDA’s upcoming data releases, ongoing trade dynamics with China, and evolving weather signals in the U.S., South America, and Black Sea regions. The market remains volatile, navigating a high-stakes intersection of policy, climate, and global supply chains.