Wheat

Wheat markets extended losses on Wednesday, led by weakness across all three major U.S. exchanges. The May 2025 Chicago SRW contract closed at $5.28¼ per bushel, down 7¼ cents on the day. Kansas City HRW wheat ended 8 to 9 cents lower, while Minneapolis spring wheat fell between 3 and 5 cents. Pressure stemmed from weak technical momentum and concerns over winter wheat conditions, rated only 45% good-to-excellent by USDA. Export demand also remains soft, although some interest emerged with South Korean mills purchasing 50,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat overnight. Precipitation forecasts across key U.S. production areas—from eastern Kansas through western Missouri—may continue to hinder fieldwork and exacerbate concerns over yield potential.

Corn

Corn futures weakened again on Wednesday, as the May 2025 contract settled at $4.72 per bushel, down 3¾ cents. The market was weighed down by a firmer dollar and variable planting progress across the Midwest. While ethanol production showed a surprising jump of 21,000 barrels/day, reaching 1.033 million barrels/day last week, ethanol stockpiles fell to 25.481 million barrels—both supportive data points. Nonetheless, export concerns and macroeconomic headwinds offset support from energy markets. CmdtyView’s national average cash price declined by 2¾ cents to $4.46¾. Brazil and Argentina continue to provide optimism, with stable weather driving improved yield expectations and higher production forecasts from analysts.

Soybeans

Soybeans posted moderate gains, with the May 2025 contract closing at $10.40¼ per bushel, up 5¼ cents. The cash market followed suit, climbing to $9.90½. Support came from expectations of easing U.S.–China trade tensions, though no formal announcement has yet emerged. Soyoil was stronger on the session, up 5 to 33 points, while soymeal was mixed to lower. Brazil’s April soybean export estimate dipped slightly to 14.3 million metric tons, down 0.2 MMT from the previous outlook. Thursday’s export report is expected to show robust soybean sales ranging between 200,000 and 600,000 metric tons, which may provide a sentiment boost if confirmed.

Global Grain Market Developments – Key Highlights from Wednesday

Weather volatility continues to dominate global grain headlines. In the U.S., widespread precipitation is forecast to affect vast portions of the Plains, including heavy rainfall in North Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. While moisture may benefit long-term yields, short-term planting operations face new disruptions. Meanwhile, drier conditions are anticipated for the Northern Plains and Prairie regions, aiding spring sowing but increasing drought concerns for winter wheat.

In South America, dry weather continues to support harvest activities in Argentina's Pampas, while consistent rainfall benefits Brazil’s central safrinha corn areas. These weather patterns are facilitating solid progress and have supported upward revisions for corn and soybean output in both countries.

Across Europe, the MARS report maintained a cautiously positive tone, citing generally favorable yield expectations. However, central and northern European countries such as Germany, France, and Poland continue to battle rainfall deficits of more than 50% compared to normal, with analysts highlighting current dryness as the worst since 1991. Southern European countries, by contrast, remain adequately watered.

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s wheat production forecast for 2025/26 was left unchanged at 19.9 million metric tons following a stretch of warm, wet conditions. Nonetheless, key producing regions like Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk remain at risk of drought, with dry forecasts ahead. Meanwhile, Ukrainian rapeseed markets are heating up as expected production drops and external demand soars. The new crop is projected at 3.4 MMT, down from 3.7 MMT last year, with exports expected to fall by over 400,000 tons. Spot market pricing for rapeseed has surged to $540–560 CPT due to tightening supply and elevated local demand.

Russia’s wheat outlook remains clouded by dryness, despite 90% of winter crops being rated satisfactory. A 58% drop in March wheat exports due to logistical and quota constraints has also added to global supply chain anxieties. Without upcoming rainfall, yield losses could be significant.

India is ramping up palm oil purchases after five months of subdued demand. The price differential between palm oil and soyoil has widened, prompting refiners to restock. April imports are estimated at 350,000 tons, with May and June volumes projected to surpass 500,000 and 600,000 tons respectively. This resurgence in buying is expected to lift Malaysian palm oil futures, which have faced a 10% YTD decline.

Malaysia continues to deal with output constraints due to drought in the Sabah region. As a result, total palm oil production for 2025 is now forecast to fall to 19 million tons, down from 19.3 million last year. The dual effect of Malaysian supply constraints and revived Indian demand is likely to buoy global vegetable oil markets.

U.S. biofuel markets provided mixed cues. While ethanol production jumped to the highest weekly level since October 2024, stocks declined by over 1.3 million barrels. Meanwhile, biodiesel and ethanol blending credits issued in March remained strong, reflecting steady demand for renewable fuels. These signals lend moderate support to underlying demand for corn and soy oil.

Grain logistics along the U.S. inland waterways continued to improve. Barge traffic was strong in the latest reporting week, with corn shipments up 71% and soybean shipments up nearly 47%. Despite a slight decline in barge freight rates at the St. Louis hub, capacity utilization and flow remain healthy.

In North Africa, Morocco’s agriculture ministry reported a bumper grain harvest of 4.4 million tons in 2025, a 41% year-on-year increase. Boosted by expanded planted area and better rainfall, the harvest includes 2.4 million tons of soft wheat, 1 million tons of durum wheat, and 950,000 tons of barley. The rebound is expected to drive agricultural GDP up by 5.1%, reversing last season’s 4.8% contraction.

As Thursday’s session begins, all eyes will turn toward the USDA’s weekly export report and further weather model updates. With volatility still a dominant force across commodities, traders are maintaining a cautious stance as planting delays, shifting trade flows, and climatic variability continue to drive global market behavior.