Wheat

May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat opened Thursday at $5.29½ per bushel, gaining 1¼ cents from Wednesday’s close. Despite this early uptick, wheat remains under broad pressure after Wednesday’s losses across all three major U.S. contracts. Kansas City HRW futures are seeing early movement after closing 8 to 9 cents lower the day before, while Minneapolis spring wheat continues to show soft undertones. Export markets remain quiet, with this morning’s USDA data expected to reflect between -150,000 and +200,000 MT in old crop wheat sales, and up to 300,000 MT for new crop. Meanwhile, precipitation forecasts remain front-of-mind, with at least an inch expected across much of the U.S. grain belt—including heavier totals in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri—likely impacting short-term planting and crop quality assessments.

Corn

May 2025 corn futures began the session at $4.74½ per bushel, up 2½ cents from Wednesday. This mild rebound follows recent softness tied to export hesitations and a stronger U.S. dollar. Wednesday saw a 3¾ cent dip, with the national average cash price falling to $4.46¾. However, ethanol market dynamics are providing moderate support: U.S. ethanol output rose to 1.033 million barrels/day—the highest since October 2024—while stocks declined by over 1.3 million barrels to 25.481 million. Weekly corn sales reported today are expected between 0.8 and 1.3 MMT for the current crop year, with smaller figures for new crop. Soil moisture remains a concern in the core Corn Belt, particularly in Illinois and Iowa, although upcoming rainfall may offer partial relief.

Soybeans

May 2025 soybean contracts opened Thursday at $10.44¾ per bushel, up 4½ cents. This builds on Wednesday’s modest gains of 5¼ cents, which pushed the contract to $10.40¼ by the close. The cash bean price also climbed to $9.90½. The market remains cautiously optimistic due to rumors of improving trade relations between the U.S. and China, although no official policy updates have emerged. Soyoil futures strengthened yesterday, advancing 5 to 33 points, while soymeal was mixed. Thursday’s USDA report is expected to confirm soybean export sales between 200,000 and 600,000 MT for old crop, and up to 200,000 MT for new crop. ANEC has revised Brazil’s April export forecast down slightly to 14.3 MMT, still a robust level amid global demand.

Global Grain Market Drivers – Thursday's Key Developments

Warm and unsettled weather patterns continue to shape planting and yield forecasts worldwide. In the U.S., widespread warmth is forecast through early May, with heavy rains predicted from the Rockies to the Appalachians. This will support longer-term soil moisture but may impede spring planting progress, especially in already-wet regions like the Delta and Lower Mississippi.

In the Northern Plains, limited showers are expected to taper off by Thursday, only to return more strongly over the weekend. These systems could alleviate drought conditions but also disrupt fieldwork. Soil temperatures are on the rise, promoting planting progress where fields are not overly saturated.

The Central and Southern Plains remain a focal point for wheat watchers. While western Kansas and adjacent areas remain dry, upcoming systems may offer some relief. If missed, winter wheat conditions—already poor—could deteriorate further. The same systems may restrict early corn and soybean planting in affected zones.

In the Midwest, recent rains have boosted soil moisture and eased drought concerns but introduced planting delays. As April closes and May begins, the busy weather pattern will bring alternating wet and dry periods, giving farmers tight windows for fieldwork.

South America’s near-term outlook remains split. In Brazil, showers are expected to intensify later this week, aiding safrinha corn during pollination and early grain fill. The recent weather rebound follows concerns of April dryness and brings hope for stabilizing yields. Argentina continues to benefit from mostly dry weather, which is aiding the late-season soybean and corn harvests.

However, May's broader forecast points to widespread dry conditions across Brazil and Argentina. This could help accelerate harvests in the near term but poses longer-term risks for second-crop corn and softs like coffee and wheat, particularly in the Southeast where soil moisture is near 6-year lows.

Paraguay’s soybean forecast has been lifted 5% to 10.2 million tons, thanks to favorable weather in the southeastern Oriental region. Harvest progress is strong, and yield outcomes have exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, corn output is holding steady at 5.2 MMT, supported by continued dry weather that is conducive to fieldwork.

In Europe, consistent rains are benefiting winter wheat but delaying spring sowings. Soil moisture is strong in most areas except for northeastern regions like Poland, which remains notably dry. This week’s precipitation will likely miss these parched areas, while next week promises a quieter, milder pattern.

The Black Sea remains dry and cool, with only limited precipitation expected. While planting conditions have been acceptable, wheat development is being hindered by the lack of sustained warmth and moisture. Conditions remain poor, especially for later-season growth.

In policy developments, Brazil’s soy sector is in the spotlight as debates over the Amazon soy moratorium intensify. A Supreme Court case could reshape the rules surrounding soy cultivation in deforested areas. While conservationists support the moratorium’s impact, some farmer groups are pushing to transform it from a restriction into a voluntary code.

Egypt announced plans to import 4.5 million tons of wheat in the upcoming fiscal year, slightly down from the current year’s 4.8 million. The government also expects to procure 3.5 to 4 million tons domestically, and current reserves are sufficient through July 22.

Finally, U.S. corn production for 2025/26 has been trimmed slightly to 393 million tons amid persistent soil dryness in the Corn Belt. While planting progress remains on track, the moisture deficit in key states like Iowa and Illinois is drawing concern. Market watchers are monitoring weather shifts and export reports closely as volatility persists.