Wheat

By midday Friday, May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat was trading at $5.29¾ per bushel, up ½ cent. The mild gain added to Thursday’s close, reflecting resilience despite a shaky export backdrop and wavering confidence in global weather conditions. USDA data showed 21.483 million metric tons of wheat sold since June 1, a figure 14% higher than the same point last year but still trailing average pace projections. Meanwhile, crop ratings in France dipped slightly, with soft wheat rated 74% good-to-excellent, down one point from the previous week. Traders remained watchful of weather forecasts in key U.S. winter wheat regions, as potential rainfall could disrupt planting but aid soil moisture in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri.

Corn

May 2025 corn futures hovered at $4.78¾ per bushel by midday Friday, gaining 1½ cents. The national average cash corn price also ticked higher to $4.52. USDA reported a fresh private export sale of 235,000 metric tons to Mexico, with volumes split between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 crop years. This followed recent signs of stronger international interest, with Japan reportedly considering higher U.S. corn imports in upcoming trade talks. Current export commitments stand at 57.734 MMT, 26% ahead of the same time last year, though still slightly below USDA’s target pace. Starting May 1, CBOT will raise corn’s daily price limit to 35 cents, adding a new dimension to market volatility. Planting remains a concern, particularly in Illinois and Iowa, where recent rain has left soils oversaturated.

Soybeans

Soybeans slipped midday Friday, with May 2025 contracts trading at $10.50½ per bushel, down 2¼ cents. The national average cash price dipped 2 cents to $10.03¾, giving back some of Thursday’s gains. Soy oil futures were down 36 points, while soymeal futures firmed by $1.80 per ton. Export commitments totaled 47.056 MMT, up 13% from the same period in 2024, matching USDA’s average pace. Despite this, Friday’s sentiment was dampened slightly by China’s new round of tariff exemptions, which excluded soybeans—highlighting continued uncertainty in U.S.-China ag trade relations. May options were set to expire today, adding to the session's technical pressure.

Global Grain Market Developments – April 25 Highlights

Ukraine’s spring sowing campaign has lagged behind last year’s pace by 17%, attributed largely to snow and unseasonal cold across most regions in early April. As of April 24, Ukrainian farmers had planted around 2 million hectares of grains, including barley, corn, and spring wheat. While moisture reserves are currently adequate, future harvest potential hinges on timely rains in May and June.

In South America, Brazil continues to attract attention with a projected record soybean harvest of nearly 170 million metric tons. According to industry group Abiove, this will help expand exports to China, especially amid lingering U.S.-China trade tensions. Additionally, Brazil's decision to maintain a 14% biodiesel blend is expected to boost soybean oil exports in 2025, despite temporarily slowing biofuel production due to high refined oil prices.

Argentina’s soybean harvest reached 14.5% completion by April 24, up from 4.9% the week prior, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. No changes were made to production forecasts, with continued dry conditions supporting fast-paced harvesting, particularly in corn and late-planted soybeans.

The European Commission slightly trimmed its total grain production estimate for 2025/26 to 280.3 million tons, still significantly higher than the previous season and the five-year average. Soft wheat output was revised down to 126.3 million tons. Corn and barley estimates remained unchanged at 65 million and 51.7 million tons, respectively.

In France, the condition of soft wheat crops declined modestly, with 74% rated good or very good, compared to 75% the week before. Corn planting accelerated to 50% completion, well ahead of last year’s pace. However, rainy forecasts across western France could pose flooding risks and slow further progress.

Weather across the Black Sea continues to diverge. Ukraine is set for a prolonged dry spell over the next 10 days, which could challenge later-stage development of crops. In contrast, wetter weather is forecast across many Russian farming regions, potentially aiding spring sowings and early crop conditions.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia reported a 3.4% month-on-month decline in March palm oil exports. Shipments to major markets such as China and India dropped significantly, while European Union imports rose slightly. This trend could signal shifting demand dynamics in global edible oil markets.

Shipping logistics in the U.S. showed signs of stress as Mississippi River grain barge shipments fell to 469,000 tons in the week ending April 19, down from 562,000 tons the week prior. Corn and soybean shipments declined by 17% and 33.5% respectively. Concurrently, barge freight rates at St. Louis fell by $1.92 per short ton, reflecting easing river congestion.

Brazilian ethanol giant Copersucar announced a new agreement with Green Plains Inc., expanding its U.S. market presence. The deal names Copersucar’s U.S. arm Eco-Energy as the exclusive ethanol marketer for Green Plains, lifting its share of U.S. ethanol trade to an estimated 15%.

In trade policy, the Philippines plans to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural goods—including soybeans and frozen meat—in exchange for lowered tariffs on Filipino exports. Talks are scheduled in Washington between April 28 and May 2, and outcomes could shape future grain flows and market access.

Finally, Egypt confirmed its intention to import 4.5 million metric tons of wheat in the next fiscal year, slightly down from 4.8 million this year. With domestic procurement goals of 3.5 to 4 million tons and stockpiles sufficient through late July, Egypt remains a dependable buyer—an encouraging sign for Black Sea exporters, especially Romania and Ukraine.