Wheat – May 25 CBOT Wheat Contract: $5.30 ¾ cents
Wheat prices are trading with double-digit losses on Monday morning, following a mixed performance last Friday where futures could not sustain strength into the close. Chicago SRW futures settled with slight fractional gains but ended the week 18 ¾ cents lower. Kansas City HRW contracts managed fractional gains in the front months but still posted a weekly loss of 19 ½ cents, while MPLS spring wheat closed slightly lower with May ending the week down 13 ¾ cents. The Commitment of Traders report indicated that managed money reduced its net short in Chicago wheat but added to shorts in KC wheat. Export sales are currently running 14% above last year’s pace, although still slightly behind the USDA’s target pace. Additionally, French soft wheat crop ratings slipped slightly this week to 74% good or excellent.
Corn – May 25 Corn Contract: $4.78 ¾ cents
Corn prices are under pressure, falling 6 to 7 cents early Monday. Futures had a mixed close last Friday, with nearby contracts slightly higher but new crop December futures down. May futures were down 3 ½ cents for the week. Open interest showed significant liquidation ahead of the first notice day, particularly in the May contracts. Export sales data revealed strong activity, with commitments now 26% higher than the same period last year, though slightly behind the typical seasonal pace. USDA reported a private sale of 235,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico, split between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.
Soybeans – May 25 Soybeans Contract: $10.49 ¾ cents
Soybean futures are showing early losses of 6 to 8 cents on Monday. Last Friday’s close saw minor declines, trimming the weekly gain to 13 ¼ cents. Open interest fell significantly as many May contracts were liquidated. Weakness this morning is attributed to uncertainty around US-China trade discussions, which created a risk-off sentiment. Speculators have increased their net long positions in soybeans, reflecting optimism despite the shaky geopolitical backdrop. Export commitments are robust, running 13% above last year and matching the USDA’s seasonal pace targets.
Key Developments Impacting Global Grain Markets
Ukraine’s spring sowing has been delayed by at least a week due to snow and unusually cold weather in early April, according to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry. As of April 24, only 2 million hectares have been sown, 17% less than last year. Moisture levels in most regions are optimal, providing a silver lining for the future harvest.
In addition to planting challenges, Ukraine’s soybean sowing area may shrink by up to 13% in 2025 due to lower prices stemming from last year’s record harvest. Conversely, sunflower seed output is projected to rise by 14%, boosting sunoil production similarly.
Weather forecasts point to drier-than-normal conditions in North America for May, favoring harvest progress in South America’s Pampas region while reinforcing dryness concerns in the Black Sea region, particularly Ukraine. Russia, however, is expected to see wetter conditions.
US weekly export sales data revealed Mexico as the top buyer for soybeans and Japan as the leading buyer for both corn and wheat during the week ending April 17, providing some support for US grain markets.
Brazil is poised to boost its soybean exports to China and soymeal shipments to Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia amid ongoing US-China trade tensions. A record soybean harvest nearing 170 million metric tons underpins this export surge, according to Abiove.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s soybean harvest has progressed significantly, reaching 14.5% completion compared to 4.9% the prior week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept production estimates steady for both soybeans and corn.
The European Commission trimmed its total grain production forecast for the upcoming 2025-26 season slightly to 280.3 million tons, primarily due to a small cut in soft wheat output. However, overall production is expected to remain significantly above both last season and the five-year average.
Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell by 3.4% in March compared to February, with notable declines in shipments to India and China. This trend could influence global vegetable oil markets and, by extension, grain oilseed markets.
France’s soft wheat ratings dipped slightly to 74% good or excellent. Corn planting, however, has accelerated, reaching 50% completion compared to 24% last year, although heavy rains forecasted for western France may disrupt further progress.
The Philippines plans to offer increased imports of US farm goods, including soybeans, in negotiations aimed at reducing tariffs on Philippine exports to the US. This move could boost US soybean exports if agreements are reached.
In the livestock sector, US red meat production rose by 1.1% year-on-year in March, according to USDA data. This included a 2.1% increase in beef production, potentially influencing feed grain demand.
Grain barge shipments down the Mississippi River fell sharply for the week ending April 19, with corn shipments down 17% and soybean shipments down 33.5% week-over-week. This slowdown in logistics has caused barge rates to decline.
Finally, Brazilian agribusiness giant Copersucar expanded its US ethanol operations through an exclusive marketing agreement with Green Plains Inc. Their Eco-Energy subsidiary will now market 15% of US ethanol trade volumes, an arrangement that could impact corn demand linked to ethanol production.