Wheat – $5.05 ¾

Wheat futures began Wednesday on a mixed note after closing Tuesday with further losses. Chicago SRW contracts were down 5 to 10 cents, with May ending at $5.05 ¾. Kansas City HRW futures shed 8 to 9 cents, and MPLS spring wheat was 3 to 5 cents lower. Weather remains a double-edged sword: heavy rainfall is projected across Kansas and Texas over the coming week, potentially benefiting crop development but stalling fieldwork. Meanwhile, wheat exports from the EU remain sluggish, down 9.7 million tons from last year. Russia, however, continues to revise its wheat export forecasts upward, supported by better short-term shipping pace and crop prospects.

Corn – $4.60 ½

Corn opened Wednesday with mixed momentum after a sharp drop on Tuesday when May futures settled 15 cents lower at $4.60 ½. Open interest showed a steep drop of more than 43,000 contracts, suggesting ongoing liquidation ahead of First Notice Day. The USDA announced a private sale of 120,000 metric tons of corn to Spain, and South Korea also secured 263,000 MT through overnight tenders. However, concerns remain over herbicide shortages after the US ruled to restrict imports of 2,4-D, a key product for corn growers. Light precipitation is forecast for the Midwest, especially across Iowa and Wisconsin, allowing planting to proceed in some areas.

Soybeans – $10.41

Soybeans were trading 6 to 8 cents lower on Wednesday morning after closing Tuesday with losses of 9 to 11 cents, leaving the May contract at $10.41. Preliminary open interest dropped sharply as traders exited May contracts ahead of deliveries. USDA reported a sale of 110,000 MT to an unknown destination, but the market remained weighed down by rising Brazilian export competition and weak Argentine selling activity. Argentine farmers, hesitant to sell amid currency instability and delayed harvests, have sold only 24% of their soybean crop — the slowest pace in 11 years. Soymeal futures were mixed, while soyoil continued to weaken.

Key Developments Driving Today’s Global Grain Market

Argentina’s soybean marketing pace has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade. Despite eased exchange controls, only 24% of the estimated 49 million metric ton crop has been sold, reflecting both economic uncertainty and delayed harvest due to heavy rainfall.

SovEcon raised its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2025–26 season by 0.6 million tons to 39.7 million tons, citing a more favorable harvest outlook. However, cold snaps and persistent drought in southern and Volga regions still present risks.

The European Commission reported EU soft wheat exports at 17.5 million tons for the current season, down 34% year-on-year. Major destinations remain Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria. Barley exports also fell 21%.

China is facing worsening drought conditions in its northern wheat belt, with no significant rainfall expected over the next 10 days. Officials have ramped up drought relief efforts, stating the situation is severe as crops enter critical growth stages.

In Brazil, soybean exports for April are expected to total 13.8 million tons, down from 14.3 million tons forecasted last week. Soymeal exports were also revised lower to 2.1 million tons. The end of the wet season is near, but recent fronts have kept soil moisture favorable for planting winter wheat in May.

Heavy rainfall is forecast for southern U.S. regions, particularly Texas, Kansas, and eastern Colorado. The 7-day QPF indicates accumulations from 1 to over 5 inches, likely improving soil moisture but delaying planting.

The USDA ethanol report is due later today, with analysts expecting production to dip slightly to 1.025 million barrels/day. Corn used in ethanol is seen down 2.6% from last year, potentially tempering corn demand further.

Malaysia’s April palm oil exports rose 3.6% month-over-month to 1.087 million tons, helping sustain oilseed markets. However, declining soyoil prices and lower demand in China are exerting pressure on global vegetable oil prices.

Kazakhstan has exported 7.5 million tons of grain since the start of the agricultural year — a 60% increase compared to last year. Notably, exports to Iran rose 16-fold, while shipments to Azerbaijan surged more than 100 times.

In a major food security initiative, Mexico announced the launch of PROSEBIEN — a state-owned company aimed at increasing certified seed production for key crops like beans and rice. The initiative will reduce reliance on imported seeds and improve national food sovereignty.

China has launched a campaign to reduce grain usage in livestock feed by ramping up the production of alternative protein sources such as kitchen waste and insect meal. By 2030, it aims to cut soybean meal usage in feed to 10%, further reshaping global soybean demand.

The USDA announced plans to transition its public data archive from Cornell’s Mann Library to a new internal system, aiming to modernize data access. The Mann Library currently holds key historical datasets used widely across the grain trade, including WASDE reports.