U.S. Crop Opening – July 25 Contracts

Wheat – $5.41 ¾ (+10 ½ cents)

Wheat futures opened Friday with notable gains, extending momentum from earlier in the week. The July Chicago SRW contract began trading at $5.41 ¾, up 10 ½ cents from Thursday’s close. Weather concerns continue to hold the market’s attention, particularly with persistent rainfall across key HRW and SRW growing regions, which is improving soil moisture but delaying fieldwork. USDA data showed weekly old crop wheat sales reaching 75,005 metric tons, a recovery from recent net reductions. New crop sales stood at 238,300 MT, with key demand from South Korea and Nigeria. Overnight, South Korea purchased an additional 35,800 MT of U.S. wheat, while French soft wheat ratings held steady at 74% good to excellent.

Corn – $4.74 ¾ (+2 ½ cents)

Corn markets opened Friday in slightly firmer territory, with the July contract climbing to $4.74 ¾, up 2 ½ cents. Although prices had slipped on Thursday, export optimism and ethanol processing figures provided mild support. USDA reported 1.014 million metric tons of old crop corn sales, with Mexico again the top buyer. New crop bookings added 244,704 MT. Weather-wise, mixed outlooks across the Corn Belt are creating patchy planting conditions. Drought area for corn declined by six points last week, down to 20%. Ethanol data from March showed 454.2 million bushels of corn used—down 3.79% from last year—adding some caution to otherwise steady demand figures.

Soybeans – $10.53 ½ (+3 ¼ cents)

Soybeans continued their upward trend at Friday’s open, with the July contract starting the session at $10.53 ½, gaining 3 ¼ cents. The market was supported by bullish export data and a solid soybean crush figure from the USDA’s latest report. Old crop sales totaled 428,227 MT last week, with China accounting for 139,400 MT. Soymeal export business surged to 328,219 MT, the highest in 11 weeks, while soybean oil sales fell to a multi-week low of 8,200 MT. The March crush came in at 206.5 million bushels, up 1.49% year-over-year. Argentina’s harvest has now reached 24%, still trailing the 36% progress from the same period last year.

Key Global Developments Driving the Grain Market

U.S. export performance has once again lifted sentiment, with strong weekly sales reported across soybeans (478k tons), corn (1.26 million tons), and wheat (310k tons). Mexico led corn purchases, China dominated soybean demand, and Nigeria topped the list for U.S. wheat buyers.

CoBank projects that Mexico could soon overtake Canada as the leading destination for U.S. agricultural exports. While this shift would reinforce North American trade ties, recent economic slowdowns in Mexico and a 15% depreciation of the peso raise concerns over the pace of future growth.

Weather continues to influence U.S. grain dynamics. While the Southern and Central Plains benefit from improved moisture, planting delays are intensifying due to persistent rain. Dryness in the western Midwest and northern Plains may allow planting progress to continue in those zones. Meanwhile, flooding persists along the Mississippi River south of Memphis, disrupting grain logistics.

The FAO has cut its global grain stockpile forecast to 868.2 million tons for the 2024–25 season—the lowest level in three years. Though the stock-to-use ratio remains stable, the report signals tighter availability amid weakening global trade flows, which are projected to hit their lowest levels since 2019–20.

Tariff uncertainty is driving volatility in global food markets. A UN report shows a 1% increase in the global food price index, its highest level since March 2023. Currency instability and changes to trade policy are cited as major factors behind the recent jump in grain, meat, and dairy prices.

India’s palm oil imports fell 24% in April, their fifth straight monthly decline. Elevated palm oil prices have shifted demand toward soyoil, which rose 2% month-over-month. However, palm oil has now started trading at a discount again, potentially reviving Indian demand for shipments starting in May.

Malaysia reported a 5.1% increase in palm oil exports in April, totaling 1.121 million tons. The EU remained the largest buyer, and the boost in volume may help stabilize global palm oil prices despite weak Indian imports.

In Argentina, corn and soybean harvests continue under mostly dry conditions, though some areas are now too dry to support early wheat planting. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has kept production forecasts unchanged for now but is closely monitoring weather conditions.

Brazil is concluding its wet season, with recent rainfall supporting corn filling and winter wheat planting. Some southern areas remain dry, which could temper crop potential, though most regions remain on track for seasonal progress.

The USDA projects Canadian wheat production to rise 2% in the 2025–26 season, with a 2.6% increase in planted area. Prairie farmers are expected to begin large-scale sowing operations by mid-May, as early planting has already started in southern zones.

Mixed signals from U.S. crushing and biofuel data continue to influence price direction. March soybean crush rose 1.5% year-over-year to 206.6 million bushels, while corn use for ethanol dropped 3.8%. Soybean oil use in biofuel production dropped sharply by 33%, hitting its lowest point since early 2021.

Mississippi River barge shipments rose sharply to 670,000 tons, up from 469,000 tons the previous week. Corn volumes climbed 43%, while soybean shipments jumped 65%. However, elevated barge rates and downstream flooding are still straining transport efficiency across major U.S. grain corridors.