U.S. Crop Futures – Opening Prices for July 25 Contracts

Wheat – $5.43 (↓4 cents from previous close)
Wheat markets began Monday under mild pressure following a strong close last Friday. The July Chicago SRW contract opened at $5.43, having risen 12 cents at the end of last week. The rally was short-lived as speculative short positioning remained high. The Commitment of Traders report showed an increase in net shorts, now totaling over 121,000 contracts—the most since May 2023. Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis HRS contracts also saw prior gains, but early-week sentiment is weighed down by pressure from global wheat competition and bearish positioning. U.S. wheat exports saw a boost with Taiwan purchasing over 68,000 MT, while French soft wheat remained steady at 74% good-to-excellent.

Corn – $4.69 (↓3 ¾ cents from previous close)
Corn futures opened lower on Monday at $4.69 for the July contract, continuing a trend of bearish sentiment after a 16½ cent decline last week. Weak ethanol demand and shifting trader positions continue to hamper prices. Managed money cut long positions by more than 41,000 contracts, reflecting waning bullish confidence. Additionally, Brazil’s second corn crop estimates were increased by 2.7 MMT to 104.3 MMT, suggesting continued strong global supply. In the U.S., precipitation across key states remains light, contributing to planting progress but also creating regional imbalances.

Soybeans – $10.58 (↓4 ½ cents from previous close)
Soybeans opened slightly lower Monday at $10.58 for July futures after closing last week with a minor 1¼ cent loss. Despite earlier strength driven by strong crush margins and export activity, current pressure stems from easing premiums and heavy South American supply. Brazil’s soybean production was revised up to 168.4 MMT by StoneX due to strong yields in Mato Grosso. Open interest is rising, with managed money net long positions now over 38,000 contracts. Still, increasing supply and tempered demand for soybean oil—especially in biofuel markets—are capping gains.

Key Developments Shaping Today’s Grain Market

Ukraine's spring crop outlook continues to be shaped by April weather extremes. Severe frosts followed by sudden heat and dry spells have negatively impacted crop development. While the sowing pace reached 3.2 million hectares by May 2, soil moisture deficits are a growing concern. The Agriculture Ministry warns that rainfall in May and June will be crucial to crop resilience and ultimate output.

Brazil has officially transitioned into its dry season, with most growing areas receiving minimal rainfall. While soil moisture from the wet season supports current corn development, new rainfall is needed to support the start of wheat planting. A cold front expected later this week may bring much-needed showers across southern regions.

Argentina experienced drier weekend weather, aiding soybean and corn harvests. However, conditions remain mixed as upcoming scattered showers could temporarily disrupt harvesting while also improving soil moisture for early wheat sowing. The balance between progress and precipitation will be critical this week.

Palm oil reserves in Malaysia surged 15% in April, marking the strongest increase in 20 months. A production recovery following Eid holidays and better weather contributed to the build-up. Prices may come under further pressure as exports climb and the Malaysian ringgit strengthens. This shift could ripple into global vegetable oil and soy oil demand.

In Brazil’s corn market, April saw a 9% price drop due to low domestic demand and seller concerns over further depreciation. With weather favoring the second corn crop and supply expected to rise, buyers are holding off in anticipation of continued price softness.

Soybeans in Brazil and Argentina are also under pressure, with high supply and favorable harvest progress weighing on export premiums. In Brazil, 94.8% of soybean fields had been harvested by April 26. Producers were active in spot markets to secure cash, but many remain hopeful for better prices in the near term.

Russia's Novorossiysk grain terminal remains fully operational after a Ukrainian drone attack. While infrastructure was not damaged, the event highlights the persistent geopolitical risks affecting grain flows from the Black Sea region.

Japan has expressed interest in increasing corn and soybean imports from the U.S. as part of ongoing trade talks. This move would support U.S. exporters and comes at a time when China’s role as a leading soybean buyer is showing signs of adjustment.

Indonesia reported biodiesel consumption of 4.3 million kiloliters through April. The industrial sector leads demand growth, which may provide continued support to global vegetable oil markets, especially soy oil and palm oil.

U.S. livestock production showed modest gains, with pork output up 2.3% and beef up 0.8% from the prior week. However, year-to-date figures remain below 2024 levels. Feed demand may fluctuate accordingly, depending on how meat processors adjust in coming months.

Weather remains a pivotal factor across major U.S. grain-producing regions. The Northern Plains expect limited rainfall this week, risking renewed drought development. Meanwhile, the Southern Plains face flooding threats due to repeated heavy rain, slowing fieldwork.

Europe received widespread showers over the weekend, especially in the southeast. Northern areas are seeing drier conditions, aiding fieldwork. These developments will support early planting progress, though continued monitoring is needed as systems shift across the continent.

The Black Sea region received light rain in the northwest, but drier southern zones still face moisture deficits. More disturbances are expected this week, potentially improving outlooks. While colder air moved in, damaging frosts are unlikely. However, frost risks remain elevated in Belarus and northwest Russia where wheat growth is lagging.