Wheat

Wheat prices are bouncing back Tuesday morning after dropping across all three key U.S. markets on Monday. Winter wheat contracts are seeing early strength, though spring wheat remains slightly weaker. Chicago SRW closed Monday at $5.31¼ per bushel, down 11¾ cents, but rebounded by 5¼ cents early Tuesday. Export inspections fell to 310,326 metric tons last week, a 42.2% drop from the previous week, with Mexico and the Philippines leading as destinations. The spring wheat planting pace is ahead of average at 44%, while winter wheat conditions improved slightly to 51% good/excellent. Russia’s IKAR revised its wheat production forecast upward to 83.8 million metric tons and expects exports to rise to 41.3 million tons, signaling strong supply in the Black Sea region.

Corn

Corn futures were trading higher by 2¾ cents early Tuesday after a steep drop of nearly 15 cents on Monday. The July 25 contract opened at $4.54¼. Strong planting progress across the U.S. Corn Belt and a favorable outlook for Brazil’s second crop put pressure on the market at the start of the week. USDA data shows 40% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted, ahead of last year and the five-year average. Export inspections totaled 1.61 million metric tons, with Mexico, Japan, and Colombia leading the charge. Brazil's revised corn crop forecast now stands at 135.4 million tons, boosted by good weather and strong ethanol demand. Meanwhile, South Korea continues its buying streak with 200,000 metric tons purchased overnight.

Soybeans

Soybean futures are under pressure, falling an additional 2 cents early Tuesday after a broader drop on Monday. July 25 contracts opened at $10.45½, down 12½ cents. The USDA reported a brisk planting pace, with 30% of the soybean crop already in the ground and 7% emerged, both ahead of seasonal averages. Export inspections dropped 29.2% from the previous week to 324,101 metric tons, with Mexico, China, and Japan as top destinations. Open interest dropped by 1,015 contracts, reflecting diminished speculative activity. Soymeal and soyoil also weakened, echoing broader bearish sentiment across the complex.

Global Grain Market Drivers – May 6, 2025

Drought relief in the U.S. and Brazil is accelerating planting activities, setting the stage for high production potential. Dry weather across the U.S. Corn Belt is expected to continue for the next 10 days, facilitating swift corn and soybean sowings and supporting market expectations for robust yields.

In Brazil, a final round of rainfall has boosted soil moisture in some central regions, but dry conditions are now forecast through May 20. This raises concerns about moisture stress for late-planted crops, even as early season yields benefit from previous rainfall.

Argentina is facing mixed weather conditions. Showers are expected through Thursday in key growing areas like Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Buenos Aires, but dry weather will prevail by Friday. Temperature trends remain above normal, supporting late-stage growth and harvest activities.

China's North Plain is warming up quickly, which is favorable for spring sowings. This development is likely to bolster grain demand in the medium term as domestic planting activities intensify.

India is expecting rains in Western regions that could temporarily hinder the wheat harvest. However, the broader impact is seen as limited, and the overall harvest progress remains stable.

Malaysian palm oil prices dropped 0.81% overnight to 3,796 ringgit due to softer demand and macroeconomic concerns. This has a spillover effect on vegetable oil markets, influencing soybean oil prices in the U.S. and China.

U.S. planting data from the USDA Crop Progress report show accelerated pace across all major crops. Corn is 40% planted (vs. 24% last week), soybeans 30% (vs. 18%), and spring wheat 44% (vs. 30%). This speed is contributing to bearish sentiment, especially amid improved weather.

Export inspection figures show a drop in volumes for wheat and soybeans, but corn shipments remain relatively strong. Mexico continues to dominate as the main export destination across all three commodities, showing sustained demand from North America.

Brazil’s corn crop projection has been revised upward by Céleres to 135.4 million tons, driven by favorable late April weather and improved productivity in the second crop, which starts harvest in June. Corn ethanol demand in Brazil also supports domestic pricing stability.

In Brazil’s wheat market, prices surged in April to the highest levels of 2025, fueled by limited supply. However, liquidity remained low as producers focused on crop activities. Cepea reported that wheat prices declined slightly in the last week of April, as import demand slowed and export volumes fell compared to 2024.

Export channels in Argentina are under stress with two vessels – Karlino and Pacific Seagull – aground in the Parana River. This is limiting draft and disrupting grain shipments from the Rosario hub. The navigational obstruction is being monitored closely as it could impact South American export flows in the coming days.

Chinese agricultural futures are trading lower across all grain and oilseed contracts, including a 7-yuan drop for soybeans and 2 for corn. These moves reflect broader risk-off sentiment and may weigh on U.S. export competitiveness if trends persist.

Russia’s upgraded wheat outlook from IKAR may lead to increased competition in global export markets. With the production forecast at 83.8 million metric tons and exports at 41.3 million, the Black Sea region remains a key force shaping global wheat prices.