Crop Recap: May 7, 2025 Closing Prices

Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat futures settled slightly lower on Wednesday, with the July 25 contract closing at $5.34¼, down 1¾ cents. Despite early strength, prices weakened into the close, weighed down by a lack of fresh bullish news and mixed export expectations. Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts followed the same downward trend, as the market began to price in wetter conditions ahead in parts of the U.S. Plains. Oklahoma’s crop estimate of 101.169 million bushels confirmed year-on-year decline, driven by acreage reductions and the wettest April on record. Nonetheless, beneficial moisture helped salvage drought-affected areas, adding a degree of optimism for harvest quality.

Corn

Corn futures lost traction through Wednesday’s session, with July 25 contracts falling 6¼ cents to settle at $4.49¼. The market struggled to maintain early gains as traders digested the latest ethanol data: weekly production dropped to 1.02 million barrels per day, while stocks fell to 25.191 million barrels. Additionally, new export figures due Thursday are projected to show subdued old crop sales between 0.7 and 1.4 million metric tons. Traders remained cautious ahead of next week’s WASDE report, which is expected to confirm a record U.S. corn crop of 15.78 billion bushels. Brazil’s April exports remained subdued at just 178,347 MT due to seasonality.

Soybeans

Soybean markets closed mixed on Wednesday, with the July 25 contract slipping 2 cents to end at $10.39¼. While front-month contracts dipped, new crop months found slight support on expectations for robust U.S. export activity. Soymeal futures firmed by up to $2.80/ton, while soyoil continued its descent. China and the U.S. agreed to high-level trade talks in Geneva this Saturday, sparking some market speculation. March soybean exports from Brazil surged to 15.271 million metric tons, up 4% month-over-month, while May shipments are projected at 12.6 MMT. Argentine harvest, however, remains sluggish with only 25% progress amid frequent rains and high humidity.

Global Grain Market Drivers: Key Themes from May 7

Rain remains a dominant factor shaping global wheat output forecasts. In Oklahoma, excessive rainfall has reduced wheat acreage and created localized flood damage, though it helped drought-stricken crops in southern areas. The state’s yield projection stands at 35.9 bushels per acre—down from 2024—highlighting production risks in the third-largest U.S. winter wheat state. Kansas and other top producers await next week’s crop tours.

Ukraine’s wheat prospects also dimmed slightly, with production now estimated at 19.8 million tons, down 0.8% from the last update. Persistently cool and dry conditions, combined with six-year low soil moisture across key oblasts like Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson, remain key concerns. Rain in the next two weeks could offer some relief.

Chinese wheat is under pressure from a different extreme—scorching heat and dry winds in Henan province. With temperatures pushing 35°C, low soil moisture could curtail output just ahead of the late-May harvest. This has prompted government warnings and could lead to increased import demand from international markets.

Corn markets remain tight globally, although relief may come in 2025/26 with a forecast U.S. crop of 15.78 billion bushels and global ending stocks projected at 297.6 million tons. Ukraine’s 2025/26 corn production is holding at 27.9 million tons, despite dry weather in eastern oblasts and cooler-than-normal temperatures potentially delaying planting.

In Brazil, April’s corn exports were notably low due to seasonal factors, totaling only 178,347 MT. However, production is forecast at 125 million tons this season, thanks to favorable late-season rains. Argentine corn also recovered from earlier drought stress, with April exports surging 32% to 3.54 million tons.

Soybeans continue to benefit from robust demand. U.S. March soybean exports hit 3.498 million tons, with soymeal reaching a record 1.593 million tons. Forecasts for 2025/26 U.S. soybean production stand at 4.33 billion bushels. Meanwhile, Brazil is eyeing another 500,000-hectare expansion in soybean area for the upcoming season, following this year’s record harvest of 172.1 million tons.

Argentina’s soy harvest, however, is well behind pace at just 25% complete. Recent rains halted progress and increased the risk of fungal damage, heightening concerns about both quality and yield. Drier conditions expected by the weekend may allow a brief window to resume harvesting.

Malaysian palm oil prices dropped 1.71% to 3,727 ringgit amid ballooning inventories and weaker exports. Trader Dorab Mistry anticipates further declines toward 3,500 ringgit by November. With palm oil now trading at a discount to soybean oil, global consumption dynamics may shift. India, the top buyer, is projected to reduce palm imports to 7.45 million tons for 2024/25.

Ethanol markets showed weakness on Wednesday, with weekly U.S. output down 20,000 barrels per day and inventories falling modestly. Industry expectations remain dim amid policy uncertainty. The expiration of the Biodiesel Blenders’ Tax Credit (BTC) and lack of clarity on the new 45Z credit continue to cloud the outlook for renewable fuel investments.

Geopolitical shifts are also in focus. The upcoming U.S.-China meeting in Geneva may ease trade tensions, while Secretary Rollins’ Asia tour seeks tariff relief for U.S. agricultural exports. Concurrently, Russia increased its wheat production forecast to 83.8 million tons, boosting export potential to 41.3 million tons—intensifying competition in global wheat markets.

Finally, Japan’s Zen-Noh cooperative is expanding its global footprint by launching a trading operation in Geneva. With strategic assets already in Brazil and Canada, this move reinforces Japan’s intent to secure diversified grain sources amid rising trade uncertainties. The U.S. ag sentiment index also climbed in April to its highest level this year, reflecting cautious optimism across farm country.