Crop Focus – Opening Prices on Friday, May 10 (Chicago, July 25 Contracts)

Wheat opened Friday at $5.29¼, matching Thursday’s close, showing stability after losses earlier in the week. The wheat market has been weighed down by poor U.S. export data and hesitant demand, although new crop sales posted marketing-year highs. Overnight gains of 3¼ cents in SRW reflected slight pre-WASDE optimism. Weather continues to dominate sentiment, with heavy rainfall in parts of the U.S. Plains simultaneously supporting soil moisture recovery and disrupting harvest preparations. Meanwhile, Stats Canada reported a slight drop in wheat stocks, and Taiwan’s recent 99,200 MT purchase from the U.S. added a modest bullish note.

Corn started Friday’s session at $4.47½, showing signs of recovery after losing ground Thursday when it closed 1¾ cents lower. Overnight gains of 5½ cents were supported by robust old crop export sales hitting a 19-week high of 1.662 million metric tons, led by Japan, Taiwan, and Spain. Private sales to Mexico and unknown buyers contributed to the rebound. The market remains sensitive to ethanol-related data, with output still under pressure and policy developments like the new Ag BIO Act expected to boost long-term demand. Anticipation is building ahead of Monday’s WASDE, where U.S. corn carryout is forecast to tighten slightly.

Soybeans showed renewed strength Friday morning, opening at $10.45—Thursday’s close—following a solid 5¾-cent gain in the previous session. Export sales came in at 376,653 MT, led by Mexico and Pakistan. While crush data remains weak, and Chinese demand has faltered, a sharp rally in soyoil and modest support in soymeal helped offset bearish concerns. Brazil’s supply to China continues to shape the global picture, even as logistical bottlenecks and delayed shipments from April weigh on May expectations. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s upward revision of Argentina’s soybean crop to 50 MMT supported global supply outlooks but did little to dampen speculative demand.

Key Developments Driving the Global Grain Market Today

A decade-low in China’s soybean imports sent waves across oilseed markets. April volumes plunged 29.1% year-on-year to 6.08 million metric tons, the lowest since 2015, as customs delays and sluggish Brazilian logistics disrupted deliveries. Soymeal supplies tightened domestically, with crushing delays extending port-to-plant times from 7–10 days to 20–25 days. Although imports are expected to rebound in May and June, this disruption highlighted China’s logistical fragility amid trade friction.

Brazil’s May soybean export projections have been trimmed to 12.6 million tons, down from April’s record, further straining China’s recovery plans. While Beijing has resumed imports from five previously suspended Brazilian exporters, phytosanitary restrictions and port congestion remain short-term hurdles. Nonetheless, Brazil’s role as China’s primary supplier remains intact.

U.S. soybean sales to China for 2024/25 remain negligible due to the 125% retaliatory tariff. Analysts caution that if no deal emerges from this weekend’s Geneva meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials, the tariff may hold, curbing U.S. export prospects through the rest of the year. China is aggressively pivoting to Argentina and Brazil to safeguard strategic reserves.

China’s soybean imports from Argentina gained momentum this week with a non-binding deal worth $900 million for soybeans, corn, and vegetable oil. Argentina hasn’t exported soybeans to China this year, so this marks a strategic shift. Simultaneously, Chinese state buyers are exploring infrastructure investment in Argentine corn-processing capacity.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lifted its soybean crop estimate to 50 MMT, up from 48.6 MMT, citing strong yields across the Pampas. Harvest is now 45% complete, a significant leap from 23.6% the previous week. While rains have slowed progress, they’ve also improved soil conditions for winter wheat planting, supporting a balanced forecast.

In the U.S., soy and corn planting are progressing rapidly under warm and dry conditions. While this supports short-term efficiency, the lack of rain across the Corn Belt could pose problems later in the month if soil moisture doesn’t rebound. Weather models continue to show dry trends through late May.

Spring grain sowing in Ukraine reached 76% as of May 8, with 4.23 million hectares planted—matching last year’s pace. However, Ukrainian meteorologists warned that April's frosts and heatwaves, combined with low precipitation, have negatively affected early crop development. Moisture levels will be critical in the coming weeks.

In Australia, dryness prompted the Grain Industry Association to cut its wheat acreage forecast for Western Australia to 4.07 million hectares, down from 4.19 million. Canola and barley acreage were also revised down. With little rain forecast until late May, the planting window is narrowing.

France’s soft wheat remains in stable condition, with 74% rated good to very good. Corn planting has accelerated to 79% complete, well ahead of last year. Forecasts for rising temperatures and light rain in western and southwestern France support expectations for further progress.

In Canada, wheat stocks fell to 15.42 million tons as of March 31, down 1.2% year-on-year. Durum wheat rose modestly, but canola stocks plummeted nearly 39% to 5.87 million tons. Weather models show rain sweeping across the Prairies next week, which may improve soil moisture and help early crop development.

Soybean crush demand remains sluggish in China, weighing on the short-term soymeal outlook. Several northern and northeastern crushers cut output or suspended operations due to port backlogs. While Dalian soymeal futures briefly rallied in late April, they have since softened again.

Lastly, Mississippi River grain shipments rose to 780,000 tons for the week ending May 3, up from 670,000 the previous week. Corn shipments surged 28.6%, while soybeans fell 14.3%. Barge rates also rose, pointing to improved logistical activity ahead of peak summer demand. With global trade flows shifting, U.S. inland waterway traffic will be watched closely for signs of broader export recovery.