Crop Opening Prices – Wednesday, May 14 (Chicago, July 25 Contracts)

Wheat

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat opened Wednesday at $5.11½ per bushel, down 5¾ cents from Tuesday's close. This follows Tuesday’s gains where July wheat had settled at $5.17¼, up 2 cents. Despite favorable U.S. crop conditions—54% of winter wheat is rated good-to-excellent and yields in Kansas are forecasted to be the best in four years—wheat prices remain pressured by strong global supply. French acreage cuts and EU exports down over 9 MMT year-on-year offer limited support, while spring wheat markets remain soft and mixed weather in Europe and the Black Sea adds uncertainty.

Corn

Corn began the day at $4.40¼ per bushel, falling 2¼ cents after a Tuesday close of $4.42½, which had already marked a 5½-cent drop. Pressure stems from record planting progress (62% complete) and strong Brazilian production estimates, with USDA now projecting 130 MMT and private analysts not far behind. A South Korean tender for 65,000 MT did little to buoy sentiment. U.S. cash prices have also dipped, and while emergence is ahead of average, slow planting in states like Illinois and Kentucky could still influence regional yields.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened at $10.74¼ per bushel, gaining 1¾ cents from Tuesday’s close of $10.72½. Market movement remains cautious as traders weigh planting progress (48% complete) and emergence (17%) against trade tensions. While Brazil’s May export forecast rose to 14.27 MMT, U.S. soybeans face falling export demand due to lingering Chinese tariffs. If unresolved, AgResource estimates U.S. soybean exports could plunge by 20%, potentially pushing futures down to $9.00 per bushel.

Key Global Developments Impacting Grain Markets

Brazil’s geopolitical pivot continues to reverberate through commodity markets. President Lula da Silva’s recent visit to China led to over 30 signed agreements, including partnerships in mining, transport, and AI. While the Trump administration has hinted at repercussions, Lula declared Brazil is “not afraid” and emphasized deeper ties with China as central to transforming Brazil’s economy. Agricultural sectors, notably corn and soybeans, are expected to benefit from increased Chinese investment and demand.

Meanwhile, global wheat markets are digesting contrasting weather patterns. North America is seeing high rainfall in the north-central U.S., but dryness persists in the south. Central Europe faces a prolonged dry spell, while southern regions expect heavier precipitation. The Black Sea region continues to struggle with drought recovery, though recent rains provide hope. Canada’s planting may be slowed by chaotic weather and even possible snow in Manitoba, which could support wheat and canola prices temporarily.

Weather remains a wildcard for South America too. Brazil, exiting its wet season, now relies on frontal systems for rainfall. While corn will benefit from accumulated moisture, any deficit could reduce yields. Argentina’s weather is favorable for harvesting and early winter wheat planting, but fronts expected this week could bring much-needed moisture to the north.

Tensions in the soybean market are heightened by ongoing U.S.-China trade friction. Despite a temporary truce, Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans remain at 10%, still high enough to keep U.S. exports non-competitive compared to Brazil. U.S. soybean producers now fear losing long-term market share to Brazil, which already supplies 70% of China’s soybean imports.

In its first 2025/26 forecast, China expects soybean imports to decline 2.8% due to policies aimed at reducing soymeal use in animal feed. This structural shift may permanently depress global soybean demand growth and adds downward pressure on U.S. futures.

India’s vegetable oil dynamics are also influencing soybean oil and palm oil markets. April saw the country’s lowest vegetable oil imports in over four years, dragging down domestic stocks to a five-year low. While soyoil imports rose modestly, palm oil imports fell sharply due to pricing disadvantages. However, palm oil’s return to a discount is expected to revive demand and may support Malaysian and U.S. oilseed prices in the coming weeks.

Adding to the bullish tilt in palm and soy oil markets, Indonesia raised its palm oil export levy from 7.5% to 10% to fund biodiesel and replanting programs. This is likely to push global palm oil prices higher and could further tighten oilseed product markets, especially as only half of Indonesia’s biodiesel allocation will be subsidized this year due to high feedstock costs.

Ukraine’s grain export capacity continues to be limited. Shipments since July stand at 36.7 million tons—down 17% year-on-year. Corn exports are down over 21%. Despite challenging spring planting conditions, sowing progress matches last year, offering some relief. Still, crop availability for export is expected to remain under pressure.

In a positive move for trade diversification, China opened its market to Brazil’s DDG corn ethanol coproduct, offering new export channels beyond traditional buyers like Vietnam and Spain. This follows Lula’s strategic visit and could further shift animal feed trade flows.

Lastly, Russia has ramped up its agricultural exports to the UAE, with a 26% increase in Q1. Wheat led the charge, making up 82% of total volume. The broader implication is continued competition in key grain destinations for U.S. exporters, especially as the Middle East diversifies suppliers amid shifting geopolitical alliances.

Taken together, today’s market developments highlight persistent uncertainty in global trade relationships, weather risks across major producing regions, and a fundamental reshaping of grain flows. Traders remain focused on policy signals from Brazil, China, and the U.S., as well as on rapid shifts in weather forecasts that could disrupt otherwise promising harvest outlooks.