Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans – Friday Opening Recap
Wheat began Friday’s trading session slightly lower following a strong performance on Thursday. The September 2025 CBOT wheat contract opened at $5.45½ per bushel, dipping 1 cent from its prior close. Thursday’s momentum had been driven by bullish USDA export sales and optimism following the Kansas crop tour, but early profit-taking and steadier global cues weighed on the morning direction.
Corn prices held steady with slight gains. The July 2025 contract opened at $4.49½ per bushel, up 1 cent from Thursday’s close of $4.48½. The market remains supported by strong export sales, especially to Mexico and South Korea, but any upward pressure is being tempered by mixed weather and steady U.S. supply expectations.
Soybeans continued to struggle under persistent pressure from the soybean oil complex. July contracts opened at $10.50 per bushel, down 1¼ cents after a steep decline of 26½ cents the previous day. Weak demand for soybean oil, rising stocks, and concerns about U.S. renewable fuel quotas continue to undermine sentiment despite healthy crush activity.
Global Developments Driving Today’s Market Sentiment
The USDA’s latest export report continues to set the tone for the grain market. Old crop wheat bookings totaled 58,627 metric tons, while new crop sales hit 746,155 MT—well above analyst expectations. Much of the demand came from unknown destinations and the Philippines, highlighting ongoing global interest in U.S. wheat. For corn, old crop sales soared to 1.677 million MT, a 20-week high, led by South Korea and Mexico. Soybean exports were mixed—down from last week but still up 6.3% year-over-year—with Egypt and Indonesia among the main buyers.
In Kansas, the annual Hard Red Wheat Tour concluded with a yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre—the highest since 2021. The tour's optimism, driven by better rainfall and reduced drought impact, suggests a recovery year for U.S. wheat. However, challenges such as wheat streak mosaic virus remain a wildcard for final yields.
Argentina’s soybean harvest gained pace following weather delays, as farmers rushed to beat forecasted storms. The Rosario Exchange raised its soybean forecast to 48.5 million tons, up 6.6% from April, citing unexpectedly strong yields across the Pampas. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is slightly more bullish, projecting 50 million tons. Meanwhile, corn production in Argentina remains unchanged at 48.5 million tons.
Brazil’s corn and soybean outlook continues to strengthen. CONAB raised its corn estimate to 126.9 million tons and lifted soybean output to 168.3 million tons. Corn ethanol is becoming a major growth driver, already consuming 20 million tons of corn annually and expected to double with new blending mandates. The push to expand sorghum-based ethanol is also gaining momentum in states like Mato Grosso do Sul.
Ukrainian spring grain sowing reached 87% completion, with 4.95 million hectares already planted. Despite frost and drought damage in southern regions, the agriculture ministry maintains its 2025 harvest forecast of 56 million tons. Ukraine also reported 1.73 million hectares of soybeans planted, as the country’s planting season accelerates into its final stages.
In the U.S., drought concerns are creeping back into the narrative. The USDA reported that 22% of U.S. corn and 17% of soybean crops are located in drought-affected areas, up 2 percentage points from the previous week. Meanwhile, wet conditions in the Northern Plains and Midwest are improving soil moisture but could slow planting progress. Patchy frost risks and colder-than-average temperatures in parts of Canada and the Upper Midwest remain in focus.
NOPA’s April soybean crush data showed a total of 190.226 million bushels processed—above analyst estimates and a record for the month. Still, bean oil stocks increased to 1.53 billion pounds, weighing heavily on prices and reinforcing bearish sentiment across the oilseed complex. Expectations that the EPA may lower its Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) to 4.65 billion gallons from a previously floated 5.25 billion gallon level further pressured bean oil futures.
Brazil’s ethanol sector may soon gain steam from another direction—falling sugar prices. Some sugar mills are evaluating whether to shift production toward ethanol, particularly in central Brazil where logistical costs are lower for domestic distribution. If sugar drops below 17 cents per pound, analysts estimate up to 1 million tons of sugar could be redirected into biofuel production.
In Europe, corn planting is ahead of last year’s pace with 90% complete in France. However, soft-wheat crop ratings dropped slightly to 73% good/excellent. Northern Europe is trending drier, raising concerns about moisture availability for key winter crops.
Lastly, geopolitical movement continues. Egypt and Russia announced plans to form a joint committee to monitor wheat trade, signaling tighter cooperation on logistics and oversight. Egypt remains one of the world’s largest wheat importers, and increased coordination with Russia may impact sourcing dynamics in the broader Black Sea region.
As trading unfolds today, market participants will keep an eye on evolving weather patterns, potential policy announcements, and continued export activity, especially in light of mounting concerns over oilseed stocks and uncertain biofuel policies.