The wheat market opened Monday with moderate optimism and closed stronger across all three major exchanges. July 2025 CBOT wheat settled at $5.29 per bushel, up 4 cents, while Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts posted slightly larger gains. Support came from a robust export inspections report, with 423,785 metric tons shipped during the week ending May 15, marking an 85% increase over the same week last year. South Korea and Saudi Arabia added to the positive tone with large tenders. Meanwhile, the latest Crop Progress report showed 82% of spring wheat planted, well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions slipped slightly, now rated 52% good-to-excellent.

Corn futures also firmed, with the July contract closing at $4.47½ per bushel, a 4-cent gain. The market found support in export inspections, which surged to 1.719 million metric tons, a 32% week-on-week increase. Mexico led the buying, with notable volumes also headed to Japan, South Korea, and Colombia. In the fields, 78% of the U.S. corn crop is now planted, outpacing the seasonal average. With 50% of corn already emerged and weather conditions generally supportive, market sentiment leaned cautiously bullish heading into midweek.

Soybeans saw more muted movement. July futures closed at $10.50¾ per bushel, a gain of just ¾ cent. Export inspections fell to 217,842 metric tons, down significantly from the prior week, though still 13% higher than the same period in 2024. Mexico and Egypt were the top destinations, while China remained absent from the buyer list. The pace of planting continued to impress, with 66% of the U.S. crop now in the ground, far ahead of the historical average. Crop emergence stood at 34%. Within the soy complex, soyoil futures rebounded sharply while soymeal declined, creating mixed signals across the broader oilseed market.

Across the global stage, several macro developments shaped market dynamics. In Brazil, confirmation of the first-ever commercial outbreak of avian flu triggered swift trade restrictions from major buyers including China, the EU, and South Korea. The outbreak, located in Rio Grande do Sul—a key poultry-exporting region—has already led to the loss of 17,000 chickens. While Brazil attempts to contain the virus and negotiate partial trade flexibility, the bans could shift global feed demand and disrupt corn and soy usage patterns.

Argentina’s agricultural sector faced further setbacks as torrential rains and flooding swept across northern Buenos Aires province, a vital grain and oilseed hub. Thousands were evacuated, and infrastructure damage is expected to delay the soybean harvest and affect crop quality. This follows an already slow harvest season and raises concerns for global soybean meal and oil supply, given Argentina’s role as a leading exporter.

Meanwhile, recent reforms to Argentina’s foreign exchange policy appear to be paying off. After a sluggish April, grain exports surged back, with 11.6 million metric tons sold and $3.86 billion in revenue booked. Domestic farmers have sold 8.8 million tons of grain, helped by a narrowing exchange rate gap. With reduced export duties set to expire in June, exporters are rushing to finalize shipments. First-half grain revenues are now projected at $18.2 billion, a notable increase from last year.

Despite regional setbacks, Brazil continues to dominate global supply narratives. Corn and soybean prices remain under pressure amid expectations of record production. The country's soybean output is forecast at 175 million metric tons, while total corn production is estimated at 126.87 million metric tons, with favorable weather supporting strong second-crop yields. These volumes are weighing on domestic and global prices alike.

Globally, the USDA projects soybean production for 2025/26 to reach 426.82 million metric tons, setting a new record. Production of soybean meal and oil is also expected to hit historic highs, adding further downward pressure to oilseed markets. However, weather remains a wildcard, especially in regions like China and Australia where dryness is challenging crop development.

Trade data out of China added another layer of complexity. In April, the country’s grain imports fell sharply year-over-year: corn imports dropped 84.5%, soybeans fell 29.1%, and wheat imports plunged 61.2%. The retreat reflects elevated domestic stocks and possibly strategic shifts in sourcing due to ongoing trade tensions with the United States.

Weather developments around the globe presented a patchwork of conditions. The U.S. Northern Plains received beneficial rainfall over the weekend, improving soil moisture but slowing planting. In the Midwest and Southern Plains, storm systems brought both relief and further delays. Europe and Ukraine received much-needed precipitation, although forecasts suggest growing risks for winter crops if wetter patterns do not persist. In Brazil, most safrinha corn regions remained dry, while Argentina’s heavy rainfall caused localized flooding. Australia’s wheat belt continues to suffer from intensifying drought, and China's central grain-producing areas are facing stress due to limited rainfall and unusually cold temperatures.

In Europe, Germany’s national statistics agency reported a 12.2% increase in winter wheat planting for the 2025 harvest, rising to 2.78 million hectares, driven by strong sowing conditions and crop profitability. Meanwhile, spring barley and corn sowings were reduced, reflecting a shift in planting preferences.

In the vegetable oil sector, Southeast Asia is navigating turbulent waters. Indonesia’s palm oil association urged the government to delay a planned levy hike, warning it could harm export competitiveness—particularly in light of pending U.S. tariffs. Malaysia, on the other hand, is deepening trade ties with China, aiming to expand palm oil exports and investment across Western China. India reported rising oilmeal exports in April, led by gains in soymeal and rapeseed meal, supporting the broader protein feed complex.

The grain markets opened the week buoyed by positive U.S. data, but global uncertainties—from Brazil’s disease outbreak to Chinese demand shifts—continue to inject volatility. With planting progressing swiftly and international trade dynamics in flux, traders remain cautious heading into the rest of the week.