Wheat

Wheat futures surged on Tuesday, buoyed by a new round of buying and short covering, along with ongoing concerns about adverse weather in major producing regions. July 2025 CBOT wheat closed at $5.46 per bushel, marking a gain of 17 cents. Kansas City HRW added 13–14 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 11–13 cents. Traders cited warming temperatures in Chinese wheat-growing areas and frost events in Russia as drivers of bullish sentiment. U.S. winter wheat development is progressing, now 64% headed, which is faster than the five-year average, though crop conditions slipped 2 percentage points to 52% good to excellent. The European Commission reported EU wheat exports at 18.45 million tons, sharply down from 27.89 million last year. Meanwhile, Argentina extended its wheat export tax reduction (from 12% to 9.5%) until March 2026, providing additional incentive for global buyers.

Corn

Corn prices advanced in tandem with wheat, with July 2025 corn ending the day at $4.54½ per bushel, a 7-cent increase. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 78% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted, ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Emergence stood at 50%, compared to the norm of 40%. While rain in the eastern Corn Belt may slow further fieldwork, overall soil moisture is improving. Strong U.S. exports continued to support the market, with 1.719 million metric tons of corn inspected for export last week—up sharply from both the previous week and the same time last year. Looking ahead, markets are eyeing the return of a 12% corn export tax in Argentina on July 1, which could pressure global buyers to secure supplies sooner.

Soybeans

Soybean futures followed with more modest gains. July 2025 soybeans closed at $10.53 per bushel, rising 2¼ cents on the day. The soybean crop in the U.S. is now 66% planted, far ahead of the seasonal norm, and 34% emerged. Soymeal and soyoil futures also closed higher, reflecting tight margins in the oilseed complex. Export inspections for soybeans were relatively weak at 218,000 tons, down more than 50% from the prior week, with Mexico remaining the top buyer. China's imports from Brazil and the U.S. dropped sharply in April due to logistical delays and customs issues, increasing pressure on global oilseed trade. ANEC raised its May soybean export estimate for Brazil to 14.52 million tons, while Argentina’s reduced soybean export tax will also expire in June, returning to 33% for beans and 31% for by-products.

Key Developments Influencing the Global Grain Market

Argentina’s soybean sector remains under threat from ongoing floods. Heavy storms in the northwestern Buenos Aires province left 730,000 hectares of soybeans unharvested. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange warned that harvest delays—already 15 percentage points behind last year—could result in “significant losses,” especially with more rain forecasted this weekend. Argentina, as the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, plays a pivotal role in global feed and biofuel markets.

Brazil’s oilseed sector showed resilience despite logistical slowdowns. ABIOVE maintained its crushing forecast at 57.5 million tons, and slightly raised soybean production to 169.7 million tons. However, export forecasts were trimmed to 108.2 million tons due to international demand concerns. Projections for soymeal and soyoil production and exports remained unchanged, underscoring a generally stable but cautious outlook.

China’s soybean imports in April showed a steep decline. Shipments from Brazil dropped 22.2% year-on-year, while U.S. exports fell 43.7%, according to customs data. Total April imports, at 6.08 million tons, were the lowest since 2015. While year-to-date shipments from the U.S. rose 35.2%, uncertainties around tariffs and trade policy continue to cloud forward visibility.

The wheat market received fresh bullish input from both the U.S. and Russia. In the U.S., spring wheat planting is ahead of schedule in all six key reporting states, though emergence in Montana is trailing. In Russia, despite recent frost emergencies in Belgorod and Voronezh, analysts estimate only minor damage—about 10% compared to last year’s frost losses. Wheat export prices from Russia held firm at $247–249 per ton FOB, with new crop prices slightly lower, reflecting soft demand and favorable harvest outlooks.

European wheat exports are lagging, but Brazilian domestic stocks appear stable. While EU shipments are down 9.44 million tons from last year, Brazil’s wheat planting area is projected to decline. Yet, production could rise to 8 million tons due to improved yields, even as domestic consumption remains flat at 12.1 million tons.

In corn, traders are watching dry weather in Brazil and the Pampas region of Argentina. Although these conditions support harvest progress in some areas, persistent dryness risks yield potential for late-season crops. U.S. corn exports continue to benefit from high demand and a soft dollar, while Ukrainian and Brazilian exports are softening due to supply constraints.

Weather forecasts point to cooler, wetter conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt through the end of the week, which may briefly hinder planting but offer much-needed soil moisture. North America’s longer-term forecast for summer remains concerning, with expectations for prolonged hot and dry conditions. These developments are critical for global corn supply in 2025/26.

In Southeast Asia, rains are expected to alleviate drought in northern Vietnam’s coffee-producing areas. Meanwhile, flooding in Southwest India is expected to exceed 200 mm above normal over the next 10 days, threatening early-season planting and infrastructure in key farming zones.

Global trade tensions remain in focus, especially between the U.S. and China. While the recent pause in escalating tariffs brought temporary relief, analysts expect a drawn-out path toward a final trade deal. Experts recall the lengthy negotiations leading to the 2020 Phase One agreement, indicating that current frictions are unlikely to be resolved swiftly.

Brazil’s poultry sector remains alert following confirmed outbreaks of avian influenza. Although three suspected cases were ruled out, two others on commercial farms remain under investigation. Brazil’s status as the world’s top poultry exporter means any extended trade bans—especially from buyers like China, the EU, and South Korea—could shift global feed demand for corn and soy, adding another layer of complexity to market dynamics.

Tuesday’s session reaffirmed how global grain markets remain highly sensitive to a delicate mix of weather variability, shifting trade flows, and policy uncertainty. As planting progresses in the U.S., the world watches closely for signs of disruption or relief ahead of summer.