Wheat

Wheat futures ended Wednesday’s trading session higher, but off midday highs, as Chicago SRW contracts closed up 3¼ cents at $5.49¼ per bushel. Kansas City HRW gained 4–5 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 6–7 cents. Weather concerns remain elevated, particularly in the Southern Plains where precipitation forecasts for next week look limited. Meanwhile, anticipation builds ahead of Thursday’s export sales report, which is expected to show a mixed bag—net reductions for 2024/25 business and moderate new crop sales. In Russia, SovEcon raised its wheat production estimate slightly to 81 MMT, though this remains below both last year’s total and the USDA’s 83 MMT figure.

Corn

Corn markets recorded robust gains on Wednesday, with the July 2025 contract closing at $4.61, up 6½ cents. Support came from a weaker U.S. dollar and bullish ethanol data, as weekly EIA figures showed ethanol production rebounding by 43,000 barrels per day to 1.036 million bpd. Stockpiles declined by over half a million barrels to 24.944 million. Export expectations for Thursday range from 0.7 to 1.6 MMT in old crop sales and up to 500,000 MT for new crop bookings. In Brazil, Agroconsult projected the second corn crop at 112.9 MMT—far exceeding CONAB’s latest estimate of 99.8 MMT.

Soybeans

Soybeans continued their upward trajectory on Wednesday with July 2025 futures closing at $10.62¾, an increase of 9¾ cents. Soymeal and soyoil contracts followed suit with gains across the board. The cash bean price jumped to $10.13½. The weather outlook remains mixed—while much of the Midwest is forecast to receive helpful rain over the next week, areas in North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and parts of the ECB are expected to remain drier. Export sales for soybeans are projected between 100,000 and 300,000 MT for the current crop and up to 400,000 MT for 2025/26. Soymeal and oil volumes are expected to come in strong as well.

Global Market Drivers

Across North America, improved soil moisture conditions have been noted in the Canadian Prairies and parts of the Northern U.S., though cold weather continues to hinder early crop growth. A warmer pattern is expected to develop in early June, but planting in several regions remains delayed, particularly for corn and soybeans.

Persistent rains in the U.S. Central and Southern Plains have helped to alleviate drought stress in Nebraska and western Kansas, although some southwestern areas remain critically dry. The overall cooler-than-average temperatures are expected to reduce heat stress in emerging crops, which may support longer-term yield potential.

In the Midwest, back-to-back systems brought widespread showers and thunderstorms, beneficial to already planted fields but problematic for areas still working to finish seeding. Frost risks remain low but cannot be ruled out in patchy spots. Forecasts suggest a warmer trend into June.

In the Delta region, excessive spring rainfall continues to create ponding and flooding challenges, delaying fieldwork and raising concerns about disease pressure. Temperatures are trending lower, further exacerbating conditions in areas where drainage remains poor.

Brazil’s crop picture remains mixed. While the Pampas received torrential rain, delaying harvest and causing local damage, winter wheat regions like Rio Grande do Sul may benefit from additional moisture. Central and northern parts of Brazil remain dry, forcing the second corn crop (safrinha) to rely on dwindling subsoil moisture.

In Argentina, widespread flooding over the weekend disrupted central crop zones, affecting harvest quality and timing. However, northern areas are benefiting from improved rainfall, aiding winter wheat establishment. Despite damages, recent rain overall has supported future planting efforts.

Weather models for June indicate a high likelihood of warm and wet conditions across much of Western Europe, beneficial for wheat and rapeseed development. However, these same models suggest Ukraine and southwestern Russia may experience hot and dry weather—a shift that could stress Black Sea crop yields.

In Russia’s Rostov region, which suffered a 22% harvest decline in 2024, authorities declared an agricultural state of emergency after spring frosts and drought. A lack of rain threatens to deplete crop potential, despite recent scattered rainfall. Yields are expected to remain below average, with profit margins already halved compared to last year. Rostov joins Voronezh and Belgorod in formally requesting support measures.

On the export front, Brazil’s soybean shipments for May are now pegged at 14.52 MMT by ANEC, up from last week’s estimate of 14.27 MMT. Soymeal exports are also rising slightly to 2.36 MMT. These flows help to offset some of the weakened demand from China and sustain Brazil’s global market share.

EIA's ethanol report brought optimism to corn bulls, confirming higher production and tighter stock levels. While overall refiner inputs were slightly lower, the strong rebound reinforced expectations for improving domestic demand amid planting delays and shifting energy dynamics.

In corporate news, Bartlett Grain announced a definitive agreement to acquire Ceres Global Ag at $4.50 per share—a 153% premium. The deal, backed by 70% of shareholders, will see Ceres delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange upon closure expected later this quarter. The move reflects ongoing consolidation in the grain trading and infrastructure sector.

Feed grain demand may face headwinds, as U.S. cattle placements in April are projected to fall 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest since 2020. Marketings are also expected to dip, possibly reducing short-term feed use for corn and soybean meal.

Asian commodity markets showed mixed signals. While Chinese ag futures saw increases in soybean, soymeal, and palm oil prices, Malaysian palm oil slipped 0.38% overnight. This reflects cautious optimism in feed and oilseed sectors amid softer global vegetable oil sentiment.

Overall, the global grain market continues to react swiftly to evolving weather forecasts, shifting trade taxes, and fluctuating export flows—fueling uncertainty and price volatility in key futures markets.