Wheat

Chicago wheat futures (July 2025) closed Tuesday at $5.37¼ per bushel, up 8½ cents, ending the day with firm gains across all major U.S. wheat contracts. Winter wheat harvest in the U.S. reached 37% completion—trailing the seasonal average—while condition ratings slipped to 48% good/excellent. Improvements were noted in Colorado and Kansas, while Nebraska and Texas reported deterioration. Spring wheat is now 38% headed, and its ratings slightly declined to 53% good/excellent. On the international front, Ukraine’s wheat exports for 2024/25 reached 15.7 million metric tons (MMT), down from 18.5 MMT a year prior. In Brazil, heavy rains and frosts in Rio Grande do Sul continued to affect planting progress and crop conditions, while prices declined across key states. Meanwhile, Argentina’s dry and cool weather improved prospects for strong yields, with water reserves similar to record years.

Corn

Corn futures for July 2025 closed at $4.20 per bushel, down ½ cent. The market saw early strength fade during the session, despite bullish data showing 8% of the U.S. corn crop now silking—slightly ahead of average. Crop conditions improved to 73% good/excellent, driven by significant gains in states like Texas (+28 points), Nebraska (+16), and Iowa (+5), while Illinois and Ohio saw declines. U.S. ethanol use data for May showed 449.44 million bushels (mbu) of corn processed, up 6.2% from April. Ukraine’s corn exports for 2024/25 are forecast at 22 MMT, significantly below the 29.5 MMT from the prior year. In Brazil, the winter corn harvest remains behind schedule at 18%, with ongoing rains and frost stalling progress and raising quality concerns. U.S. cash corn prices held steady nationally at $3.92¾.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for July 2025 settled at $10.24¾ per bushel, gaining ½ cent on the day after recovering from early-session weakness. Crop conditions held steady at 66% good/excellent, with 17% of the U.S. crop now blooming and 3% setting pods. Ratings improved in states like Arkansas and South Dakota but dropped in Illinois and Indiana. The latest USDA Fats & Oils report showed May crush volumes at 203.7 mbu, up slightly from April and 6.3% higher year-over-year. Soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.876 billion lbs, down over 14% from a year earlier. Brazilian soybean exports in June were estimated at 13.93 MMT, slightly above previous expectations. Italy continues to shift its soybean imports toward the U.S. as part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on Brazil and Ukraine amid ongoing trade negotiations with the EU.

Key Global Grain Market Developments

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports following the screwworm outbreak. The first port to reopen will be Douglas, Arizona, on July 7, followed by ports in New Mexico and Texas through September. This reopening may affect U.S. feed grain demand.

Ukraine concluded its 2024/25 grain export season with a 21% year-over-year decline, totaling 40.6 million tons. Corn exports dropped 25.6%, wheat fell by 15%, and barley by 8.5%. Delayed spring harvests and smaller early volumes have been reported.

Argus Media reduced Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat crop estimate to 21.9 MMT, citing lower yields than last year, though still above the five-year average. Rapeseed harvesting is expected to be delayed due to late sowing.

The European Union sealed a new trade agreement with Ukraine to replace the post-invasion tariff-free regime. While liberalization continues for some products, quotas have been reintroduced for sensitive crops such as wheat and maize, which could impact grain flows across the continent.

In India, robust monsoon rainfall—9% above normal—boosted sowing activity. Rice acreage surged 47%, oilseeds 20%, and pulses 37% compared to last year, potentially reducing import needs for vegetable oils and oilseeds.

Indonesia raised its reference price for crude palm oil to $877.89/ton for July but kept export taxes unchanged. From January to May, the country exported 8.3 MMT of crude and refined palm oil. Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 4.66% month-on-month in June, driven by EU demand.

In the U.S., a new Senate tax bill aims to exclude foreign-sourced feedstocks from renewable fuel tax credits. This policy shift is expected to benefit domestic soybean and corn producers, especially biodiesel makers, by reinstating and expanding the Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Credit.

Brazil’s winter corn harvest remains delayed at 18% completion, with ongoing rains and frost hampering machinery operation and raising doubts over grain quality. Mato Grosso leads progress, with Paraná lagging significantly.

Soybean futures saw strong delivery activity and increased open interest on Tuesday, suggesting heightened investor attention amid mixed export data and geopolitical tensions influencing short-term market sentiment.

Weather remains a dominant factor. North America’s Midwest continues to experience heat with intermittent rainfall, while South America faces severe rainfall deficits, especially in southern Brazil. Southeast Asia is forecast to remain unusually dry, impacting palm oil production outlooks.

Argentina’s Rosario Exchange is optimistic about wheat production, projecting 7.1 million hectares planted this season. Soil moisture levels are near those of top-producing years, indicating potential for above-average yields, contingent on continued favorable weather.