Wheat markets were buoyed by unexpectedly strong weekly U.S. export sales totaling 737,831 metric tons, led by hard red winter wheat. Nigeria stood out as the top buyer with 185,900 tons, and additional sales were logged to Bangladesh and Mexico. A South Korean tender for 65,000 tons of U.S. wheat also lifted sentiment. European wheat prospects improved, with Expana raising its EU wheat crop forecast by 2.1 MMT to 132.8 MMT. Despite Thursday’s bounce, wheat futures remain lower for the month and year-to-date, reflecting a long-term bearish tone.

Corn futures pushed higher on a mix of technical support and impressive new crop export demand. The USDA reported 170,428 MT in old crop corn sales, while 3.16 MMT in new crop sales blew past expectations—marking the second-highest total for this week of the marketing year. Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, and South Korea were all significant buyers. Private sales to Mexico and Guatemala further validated ongoing international interest. Ethanol data also added mild support, with a slight dip in production to 1.081 million barrels per day and a 3.9% drawdown in stocks to 23.756 million barrels.

Soybeans bounced after Wednesday’s weakness, aided by a strong showing in the weekly export report. Old crop sales of 467,842 MT marked a 4-week high, with Taiwan and the Netherlands among key buyers. New crop soybean sales hit 545,010 MT, the highest of the year, and significant orders came from unknown destinations and Egypt. Soymeal and soy oil posted mixed results. Brazil’s ANEC estimates that soybean exports in August will reach 8.15 MMT, above last year’s 7.98 MMT. Meanwhile, Chinese customs reported 11.67 MMT of soybean imports in July—a record for the month. Despite this, China has yet to book any U.S. soybean cargoes for Q4, reflecting caution amid ongoing trade tensions.

Globally, China remains at the center of market volatility. The country's record soybean imports in July were driven by massive Brazilian shipments and hesitancy to engage with the U.S. due to trade uncertainties. Analysts expect Chinese imports to remain above 10 million tons through September, though a domestic soymeal surplus from earlier purchases and weak feed demand may suppress prices. These dynamics create ongoing uncertainty for Q4 demand and price behavior.

Ukraine is playing an increasingly strategic role in barley trade. The Ukrainian Farmers’ Union reported 250,000 tons of barley exported to China in July, with up to 300,000 more expected by August 20. Yet, adverse weather and slowed harvests mean that Ukraine’s barley crop may only reach 4.5 to 5 million tons, most of which is consumed domestically. A potential deficit by December could tighten supply for China and nearby markets, adding bullish pressure to feed grain prices.

In South America, Brazil set a record with 12.3 million tons of soybean exports in July, driven by a strong harvest and robust demand from China. The average price per ton fell by 7.1%, but overall revenue still increased to $5 billion USD. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn exports dropped 32% year-on-year due to delayed second crop harvests and port issues. These logistical struggles may shift more global corn demand toward the U.S. in the coming months.

Argentina’s decision to cut export taxes on soymeal, soy oil, and raw beans has ignited a competitive reshuffling. While the tax change narrows the gap between raw and processed exports, Brazilian processors stand to benefit due to increased global demand and reduced Argentine advantage. This shift may further solidify Brazil’s market share in soymeal and soy oil exports, especially in Asia and Europe, where both nations compete fiercely.

On the biofuel front, palm oil prices are holding firm around 4,000 ringgit/ton, supported by Indonesia’s strong biodiesel mandate and improved weather conditions. The EU’s recent decision to grant Indonesia zero tariffs for 1 million tons of crude palm oil annually could significantly boost trade flows to Europe. With U.S. soybean use for biofuel expected to rise 23%, the demand for palm and canola as substitutes is also likely to increase—impacting soybean oil fundamentals globally.

Weather continues to act as a significant market driver. Heatwaves are expected to intensify in the U.S. Midwest between August 18 and 25, posing risks to corn and soybean yields during critical development stages. Meanwhile, beneficial rainfall in Southeast Australia supports wheat growth, and heavy rains across China’s North Plain are aiding crop development. In the Canadian Prairies, rain arrives too late for maturing wheat, and U.S. Plains remain uneven—favorable in parts but too dry in others. These regional weather variations will be closely monitored in the coming weeks as harvest momentum builds.