Wheat

Wheat markets rallied on Wednesday, with strong gains across all three major exchanges. Chicago SRW contracts closed up by 15 to 19 cents, supported by stable demand and bullish investor positioning. Kansas City HRW futures followed closely, ending 11 to 12 cents higher, while Minneapolis spring wheat surged by 20 to 22 cents. The USDA is expected to release weekly export sales data, with estimates between 200,000 and 600,000 metric tons for the week of June 26. Market sentiment was further boosted by President Trump’s announcement of a new trade deal with Vietnam, a key wheat export destination. The September 2025 CBOT Wheat contract closed the day at $5.64, up 15 cents.

Corn

Corn futures also advanced, driven by pre-holiday positioning and slight bullish momentum from ethanol data. Contracts rose by 9 to 12 cents, with the front-month CmdtyView national average cash price increasing by nearly 12 cents to $4.03½. Weekly ethanol output declined marginally to 1.076 million barrels per day, but drawdowns in ethanol stocks and improved export activity provided support. The USDA’s upcoming export sales report is anticipated to show between 0.4 and 1 million metric tons of corn booked, including 500,000–900,000 MT in new crop sales. The September 2025 Corn contract closed at $4.18, up 12 cents.

Soybeans

Soybeans led the day’s gains, buoyed by strong technical momentum, solid export demand, and favorable cash market movements. Futures jumped 20 to 26 cents, with the national average cash price reaching $10.12½. Soymeal and soyoil also gained sharply, rising by up to $4.10 and 140 points respectively. The USDA’s Fats & Oils report confirmed bullish trends, with soybean crush volumes and oil demand exceeding year-over-year figures. Anticipation ahead of the weekly export sales report further contributed to bullish sentiment. The August 2025 Soybeans contract closed at $10.53½, up 23¾ cents.

Global Developments Steering Grain Market Sentiment

A key development influencing global corn trade came from China’s Fufeng Group, which is finalizing a new U.S. site for a corn milling facility after abandoning a $700 million project in North Dakota. This move, alongside Fufeng’s ongoing international investments, is being closely monitored amid ongoing U.S.–China tensions that could affect broader agricultural trade.

Weather continues to play a central role in shaping market expectations. North America experienced mixed precipitation, with beneficial rains improving soil moisture across the U.S. Corn Belt, though dry and hot conditions are projected to intensify later in July. The Canadian Prairies face uneven rainfall, potentially stressing wheat and canola crops.

In South America, Argentina remains dry, delaying optimal winter wheat establishment. While the Pampas may receive precipitation next week, concerns linger. Brazil’s corn harvest progresses well, aided by favorable weather, but frost damage to specialty crops remains a factor. Argentina’s grain exports hit a record in June, but a new tax regime starting July 1 could stifle July trading activity. Corn export taxes rose to 12%, and soybean-related taxes increased significantly, potentially tightening global availability in the short term.

European grain areas brace for upcoming rainfall, with northern zones expecting showers beneficial to corn and sunflower but less ideal for maturing wheat. Russia and Ukraine’s Black Sea region, especially southwestern Russia, also expects additional rainfall, which could slow harvest efforts for winter wheat.

India’s palm oil imports surged 61% month-on-month in June, hitting an 11-month high and reflecting strategic buying at discounted prices versus soybean and sunflower oils. This upswing supports edible oil prices in producing countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, where June exports rose 4.3% to 1.29 million tons.

Palm oil futures are projected to remain in the 3,800–4,000 ringgit/ton range through year-end, with U.S. biofuel policy and rising global output keeping a lid on price increases. Nonetheless, continued discounts to soy oil should sustain demand from major buyers such as India and China.

Ethanol data from the U.S. revealed a marginal weekly decline in output, but refinery inputs and exports climbed, suggesting stable industrial corn use. Stockpiles fell to 24.117 million barrels, indicating strong end-use pull.

Brazil’s corn surplus is projected to expand significantly to 20.5 million tons by the end of the 2024–25 season, according to Céleres. A record harvest and weak domestic absorption could apply price pressure unless international demand accelerates.

In Argentina, analysts expect market cooling in July as the export tax hike takes effect. Farmers had preemptively doubled June sales, and reduced July volumes could provide temporary support to global prices if supply tightens.

The Antarctic Oscillation’s entry into an extreme positive phase is poised to impact weather across the Southern Hemisphere. This could alter crop development in South America and Australia during crucial stages, especially for wheat and canola, which remain under strain in Australia due to ongoing dryness.

Lastly, U.S. agricultural sentiment has dipped. The Purdue University/CME Group index fell sharply from May to June, signaling increased producer uncertainty regarding market outlooks, policy direction, and weather-related risks heading into the second half of the year.