Wheat

Wheat prices in Chicago opened the trading week with a slight decline, reflecting ongoing pressure from strong harvest prospects in the Black Sea region and slow U.S. exports. The September 2025 contract began Monday's session at $5.56 per bushel. Despite stable weather in parts of the U.S. Midwest, market participants remain focused on global competition, especially from Romania and Russia, where wheat yields are showing strength. The outlook remains cautious amid logistical challenges and policy uncertainty in Eastern Europe.

Corn

Corn futures opened Monday at $4.20 per bushel for the September 2025 contract. Prices are being supported by solid demand for U.S. corn exports and ethanol production, though momentum remains muted as traders await updated yield forecasts. Dry conditions persist in Eastern Europe and parts of Ukraine, threatening to reduce production and providing a mild bullish undertone. However, strong Brazilian exports continue to balance the global market.

Soybeans

Soybean prices opened at $10.55 per bushel for the August 2025 contract, buoyed by ongoing strong export demand from Asia and tight domestic U.S. supplies. Recent USDA data on soy oil consumption and processing volumes confirmed a healthy pace, supporting upward price momentum. Traders are also closely watching Indian palm oil imports, which are at an 11-month high and could indirectly lift soybean oil demand. Meanwhile, weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil remain mixed, influencing long-term outlooks.

Global Drivers Shaping Today’s Grain Market Landscape

Weather patterns continue to play a defining role in shaping market sentiment. Romania and Russia enjoy relatively favorable crop conditions, while Ukraine and Bulgaria remain under pressure from water stress and irregular rainfall. Persistent dryness in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, despite intermittent rains, has renewed concerns about yield potential. Forecasts now point to a return of hotter and drier weather in mid-July, adding risk during the pollination phase for corn and critical growth stages for soybeans.

Romania has reaffirmed its position as a grain export powerhouse with early harvest estimates between 13.3 and 14 million metric tons, far exceeding both last year’s result and the EU Commission’s latest projection. The country has also extended its licensing system for Ukrainian grain imports through the end of 2025. Moldova has implemented a similar measure, reinforcing a regional effort to support domestic markets. This move is likely to impact regional trade flows and exert upward pressure on Ukrainian export logistics.

In Ukraine, continued drought conditions have pushed the International Grains Council to lower its corn output forecast from 30 to 28.6 million metric tons. Corn development remains delayed in southern and eastern regions. Although the winter wheat harvest has begun, further progress depends heavily on upcoming weather. Logistics remain challenged by the risk of Russian attacks in the Danube corridor and by soaring insurance costs for export shipments.

Russian wheat production forecasts have been marginally upgraded to 83 million metric tons by Sovecon, but harvest quality remains uneven due to erratic rainfall. The mixed crop outlook is creating uncertainty for export flows, though Russia remains one of the dominant players in global wheat trade. Analysts continue to monitor whether favorable conditions in central regions can offset shortfalls elsewhere.

Argentina’s surge in grain exports before its July 1 tax hike created a record monthly shipment of 23.53 million metric tons, representing 36% of the semi-annual total. With corn export taxes now raised to 12% and soybean levies also increased, a sharp slowdown is expected in July, which could tighten global supply and benefit alternative exporters such as Brazil and the U.S. Meanwhile, dryness in the Pampas continues to affect winter wheat sowing and early crop development.

Brazil remains a crucial buffer to supply shortages. Its second corn crop harvest is progressing well, although frost in southern regions has led to minor losses. Brazilian exporters are actively supplying Asian and Middle Eastern markets, helping to maintain stability in global corn trade. However, logistical bottlenecks and port delays could temporarily limit shipping capacity, especially with a strong soy and corn harvest converging.

India’s palm oil imports soared 61% in June to reach an 11-month high. This buying surge supports vegetable oil markets globally and strengthens demand for soy oil, which competes directly with palm oil in key markets. Higher demand from India has supported prices in Malaysia and Indonesia and could raise interest in U.S. and Brazilian soybean oil exports over the coming months.

In the U.S., grain traders are closely monitoring upcoming USDA reports and export sales data following the July 4 market closure. Ethanol production last week slipped slightly to 1.076 million barrels per day, but exports rose and stockpiles declined—signs of continued stable corn use. The Renewable Fuel Standard and other policy signals will play a critical role in determining longer-term demand for corn-based ethanol.

Geopolitics also added complexity to the grain landscape. China’s Fufeng Group has renewed plans to open a U.S.-based corn milling plant in Illinois, signaling an easing of tensions or at least an economic re-engagement. The move is seen as strategically significant, reflecting continued Chinese interest in securing long-term feedstock sources amid an unstable global backdrop.

Market volatility remains elevated. Traders are adjusting positions in response to weather forecasts, macroeconomic data releases, and ongoing trade shifts. Speculative flows have been active around key futures contracts, particularly soybeans, which remain supported by tight domestic stocks and robust Asian demand. As harvests unfold in the Northern Hemisphere, pricing will continue to react to each weather model update and policy decision.

Overall, today’s grain market is shaped by a complex mix of weather risks, logistical hurdles, and evolving trade policies. With wheat under pressure, corn stable, and soybeans trending higher, market participants remain alert to developments across the Black Sea, South America, and Asia. As July progresses, all eyes will be on crop conditions, export flows, and macroeconomic signals that may steer futures pricing in the days ahead.