Market Overview: Wheat, Corn & Soybeans

Wheat

Wheat markets opened the week on a bearish note, with the Sep 2025 CBOT Wheat contract starting Tuesday at $5.56/bushel and closing lower at $5.48 1/2, marking an 8 1/4 cent drop. Across the wheat complex—SRW, HRW, and HRS—losses ranged between 8 to 10 cents, reflecting continued harvest pressure and weak export sentiment. Despite stable U.S. winter wheat ratings at 48% good-to-excellent, spring wheat ratings declined to 48%, down 3% from last week. Export inspections for the week ending July 3 totaled 436,628 MT, a slight dip from the prior week. The largest shipments were destined for Mexico and Brazil. Increased open interest indicates a potential shift in speculative positioning, with managed money reducing net short exposure in both SRW and KC wheat.

Corn

Corn futures tumbled out of the weekend, opening Tuesday at $4.20/bushel for the Sep 2025 contract and closing at $4.03 1/2, down 16 3/4 cents. Early Tuesday trading continued to show weakness. The market was pressured by trade tensions following President Trump’s tariff announcement on South Korean and Japanese goods, and despite robust crop conditions—74% of the U.S. crop rated good/excellent. Export inspections were strong, with 1.491 million tons shipped, a 7.97% weekly increase and 45.6% above last year. The largest volumes went to Mexico and Japan. Yet, managed money increased its net short to over 206,000 contracts, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Soybeans

Soybeans also suffered heavy losses, with the Aug 2025 contract opening at $10.55/bushel and closing at $10.31 1/2, down 24 cents. Tuesday morning saw continued declines. The drop was influenced by accelerated exports from Brazil, mounting U.S.–China trade uncertainty, and technical pressure. U.S. crop conditions remained steady at 66% good/excellent, while export inspections surged 64.5% week-over-week, led by Egypt and Indonesia. Managed money slashed its net long positions to just 425 contracts. Brazilian exports, meanwhile, are pacing ahead of last year’s record and aim to preempt possible U.S. trade restrictions by front-loading shipments.

Key Developments Influencing Global Grain Markets

Brazil Sets New Soybean Export Record

Brazil has shipped 67.4 million tons of soybeans since February, 3% ahead of last year’s pace. With 10.4 million tons scheduled for July delivery—12% more than last year—the country is accelerating exports amid trade uncertainties. China remains the top buyer, and projections for 2025/26 show Brazil reaching 112 million tons in exports.

U.S. Soybean Export Outlook Hinges on Weather and Trade

The U.S. has exported 46.25 million tons of soybeans since last September, up 10.4% year-over-year. However, planting reductions and trade tensions with China cloud the outlook. LSEG estimates 2024/25 exports at 50.6 million tons, with a drop to 47.1 million tons expected in 2025/26 due to diplomatic instability.

Starbucks to Eliminate Canola Oil from U.S. Menu

As part of a broader health push aligned with Trump administration goals, Starbucks is phasing out canola oil in its food products, favoring alternatives like avocado oil. This move reflects growing public scrutiny of seed oils, including soybean oil, which could affect long-term demand patterns for U.S. oilseeds.

Argentina Increases Wheat Exports to Brazil

Facing tight local supplies and reduced planting, Brazilian mills are increasingly importing wheat from Argentina, which remains cheaper than domestic alternatives. In June, 94.1% of Brazil’s 487,000-ton wheat imports came from Argentina. This trend could intensify if Brazilian production continues to struggle.

Turkey to Import Triple the Wheat Volume

The USDA’s FAS forecasts Turkey will import 10.3 million tons of wheat in 2025/26—three times more than the prior season. Last year’s import bans and current production losses due to dry weather are prompting Turkish millers to restock and reclaim lost export market share.

Indonesia Palm Oil Exports to U.S. to Fall

Indonesia expects a 15–20% drop in palm oil exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, while Malaysia anticipates gains in U.S. market share. This reshuffling in the vegetable oil market could impact global soyoil demand, especially as U.S. importers reassess sourcing.

Bunge Sends First Argentine Soymeal Cargo to China

In a major milestone, Bunge is chartering the first bulk shipment of Argentine soymeal to China since approval in 2019. The move could open the door for regular soymeal trade between Argentina and China, altering global demand flows and impacting U.S. competitiveness.

USDA Crop Conditions Point to Stability in Corn & Soy

Corn and soybean condition ratings remained strong, with corn at 74% and soybeans at 66% good-to-excellent. However, spring wheat conditions fell 3% to 48%, and winter wheat harvest progress remains slightly behind the 5-year average at 53%.

U.S. Raises Tariffs on South Korea & Japan

President Trump announced 25% tariffs on goods from South Korea and Japan, effective August 1. These geopolitical moves introduce fresh volatility into global trade and could shift agricultural purchase patterns depending on retaliatory policies.

Weather: Dry in Brazil, Rain in Pampas

Brazil continues to face rainfall deficits of up to 60mm below normal, potentially affecting late-season crops. In contrast, Argentina’s Pampas region has seen beneficial wet weather. Warm conditions are expected across China and the Black Sea, adding weather-related uncertainty to global supply expectations.

Beef & Pork Production Down Sharply in the U.S.

USDA data showed beef production down 15.4% and pork production down 23.5% week-on-week due to holiday-related slowdowns. While not directly tied to grain, reduced feed demand from the livestock sector could slightly ease grain usage pressure in the short term.

Bartlett Finalizes Acquisition of Ceres Global Ag

Bartlett's acquisition of Ceres Global Ag Corp expands its grain and oilseed storage capacity by 45 million bushels and strengthens merchandising in spring wheat, durum, oats, and canola. This signals deeper consolidation and efficiency in North American grain supply chains.