U.S. Futures Recap: Tuesday’s Closing Prices

Wheat

Wheat markets saw a modest recovery on Tuesday, with Chicago SRW contracts climbing by 6 to 7¼ cents. September 2025 wheat futures settled at $5.49½ per bushel, up 7¼ cents. The market responded positively to a steady U.S. winter wheat harvest pace (73% complete) and slightly deteriorating spring wheat ratings, which dropped to 52% good/excellent. The start of the Wheat Quality Council Tour also brought attention to yield prospects. On the global front, Russia maintained high production estimates (88–90 MMT), while France’s wheat output is forecasted to jump nearly 30% year-over-year to 33.4 MMT.

Corn

Corn futures posted losses of 4 to 5 cents, closing at $3.99¼ per bushel for the September 2025 contract. Market pressure stemmed from ongoing rainfall in the Corn Belt, stable crop ratings (74% good/excellent), and slow export demand. The USDA reported that 56% of the crop was silking and 14% was in the dough stage. Brazilian July corn exports are estimated at 4.14 MMT, a decline from the previous week’s 4.6 MMT projection.

Soybeans

Soybeans ended Tuesday slightly lower, with August 2025 contracts closing at $10.10¼ per bushel, down 4¾ cents. National condition ratings slipped to 68% good/excellent, with notable declines in North Dakota and Kansas. While USDA inspections rose to 365k tons, weak domestic crush margins and strong Brazilian exports (12.11 MMT forecast for July) continue to weigh on sentiment. Cash soybean prices also edged down to $9.76¾. Soy oil futures dropped due to declining crude oil prices, while soymeal futures saw small gains

Global Market Drivers – Key Developments Shaping Sentiment

A swirl of geopolitical shifts, climate variables, and changing export dynamics is driving volatility across grain markets, influencing price expectations and futures movement.

China’s Strategic Investment in Angola

China is pushing ahead with a $250 million investment in Angola to develop 100,000 hectares of soybean and corn farms. Led by Citic Construction, the initiative aims to secure 60% of output for Chinese imports, diminishing U.S. reliance amid ongoing trade tensions. This is part of Beijing’s broader strategy to diversify agricultural sourcing by targeting underutilized land in geopolitically aligned regions.

Russian Harvest Update & Export Outlook

Russia’s first grains from the new crop have hit the market, although expectations remain split. While Stavropol delivered a strong harvest above 8.5 MMT, drought has slashed Rostov’s output forecast by 30%. The Agriculture Ministry still expects 135 MMT of grain this year, including 90 MMT of wheat. However, loadings at Black Sea ports have been slowed, raising questions about export logistics.

Brazil Raises Corn Production Forecast

Brazil’s 2024/25 corn output has been revised up to 136.3 MMT, thanks to robust second-crop yields. With 55% of the winter crop already harvested in the center-south, the higher-than-expected production could weigh on global prices if demand remains flat.

Weather Watch: Dry Brazil, Wet Pampas, Mixed U.S. Outlook

Argentine Pampas will remain wet and warm, favoring crop growth, while Brazil faces prolonged dryness. In the U.S., above-normal temperatures and scattered showers are forecast across the Midwest and Plains, supporting crop progress but also raising concerns over potential weather shocks.

Iraq’s Food Security Boosted by Surplus Wheat

Iraq harvested over 5 MMT of wheat, raising reserves to 6.5 MMT—sufficient to meet ration needs through 2026. For the third year in a row, the country has avoided wheat imports, thanks to improved irrigation and expanded storage capacity.

EU Crop Divergence: Mixed Outlook for Corn Yields

The EU MARS report highlighted above-average yields in Romania, Bulgaria, and France, but flagged risks in Italy and Turkey due to heatwaves. Northern and Southern Europe face concerns over pests and localized disease, raising the potential for intra-EU trade rebalancing.

Indian Sowing Increases on Strong Monsoon

India’s farmers expanded corn planting by 15.4% year-over-year, while rice acreage jumped 12.4%, thanks to monsoon rains being 6% above normal. The expansion is expected to shape export availability in Q4 2025 and beyond.

Vegetable Oil Markets Hold Strong on Festive Demand

Palm oil prices are hovering around 4,100–4,300 ringgit/ton, driven by Indian demand ahead of Diwali and tight U.S. soybean oil supply, which is increasingly redirected toward biodiesel. Despite abundant oilseed supply, vegetable oil markets are expected to remain firm in Q3.