The Chicago wheat market ended Wednesday with marginal strength as the September 2025 contract closed at $5.08½ per bushel, a modest increase of ¼ cent. The broader wheat complex saw mixed trading across the U.S. exchanges, with Kansas City HRW wheat leading gains by 6 to 7 cents, while spring wheat from Minneapolis posted slight losses. Despite fresh export interest from South Korea purchasing 60,000 metric tons, overall market pressure remains. Export expectations for the week are set between 350,000 and 600,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, year-to-date U.S. wheat futures are still down across the board, reflecting global oversupply and weakened demand.

Corn prices slipped on Wednesday as the September 2025 contract settled at $3.79¾ per bushel, losing 1¾ cents. The session reflected ongoing bearish sentiment despite signs of export strength and robust ethanol activity. U.S. ethanol production dipped to 1.081 million barrels per day for the week ending August 1, while inventories dropped to 23.76 million barrels. Export sale forecasts show potential between 1.3 and 2.5 million metric tons for the new crop, buoyed by recent sales announcements. However, Brazil’s corn exports for July dropped over 31% year-on-year, and South Korea’s recent purchase fell short of initial tender targets, further clouding global outlooks.

Soybean futures lost ground on Wednesday, with the September 2025 contract closing at $9.65½ per bushel, down 6 cents. The soybean complex was generally under pressure, with meal and oil futures also posting losses. Soymeal prices declined by $2.10 to $4.40, while soy oil closed mixed. U.S. soybean exports are expected to remain moderate, with the USDA anticipating between 100,000 and 300,000 metric tons for 2024/25. Meanwhile, Brazil set a July export record of 12.257 million metric tons, underscoring the country's ongoing dominance despite an 8.67% decline from June.

Latvia declared a state of emergency in its agriculture sector after extensive flooding ruined large swaths of the country’s crop production. The government now anticipates yields fit only for feed use, prompting tax and loan relief efforts through early November. This development has stirred concerns about regional grain availability in the Baltic corridor, a key route for Eastern European wheat trade.

In a significant logistical development, Ukraine reopened the Bystre Canal on the Danube after its closure in late July due to a dredger explosion. The canal now accommodates vessels with drafts up to 4.5 meters, helping Ukrainian exporters reduce freight costs and restore competitiveness. Previously diverted traffic through Romania’s Sulina channel had raised transportation costs, pressuring margins and slowing flows.

Brazil’s corn ethanol industry gained momentum as Grupo Potencial announced a $392 million investment in a new facility in Paraná state. The plant will process 1.2 million metric tons of corn annually and forms part of what is set to become the world’s largest biofuels complex. Alongside biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel production, the initiative includes plans for two pipelines to connect to distribution hubs. This development adds long-term demand for Brazilian corn and soybeans amid rising energy integration.

On the export front, Russia’s wheat production forecast was lifted to 84 million tons for 2025/26 by LSEG analysts, thanks to strong yields in the Volga and Central regions and favorable NDVI satellite indicators. Rainfall recovery in drought-hit southern districts could further enhance yield outlooks, reaffirming Russia’s competitive advantage in the global wheat trade heading into the new marketing year.

U.S. corn exports for the 2024/25 season surged to 70.06 million metric tons—up 28% from last year—driven by strong global sales and a weak U.S. dollar. However, competition from Brazil remains strong despite their exports lagging behind 2023 levels. China’s reduced corn imports and Brazil’s ongoing harvest delays have trimmed near-term outlooks for the South American supplier, with projections now at 38 million metric tons for 2024/25.

China extended its probe into beef imports through November, impacting key protein exporters like Brazil, Argentina, and Australia. The move has indirect implications for feed grain demand, particularly soymeal. Meanwhile, Bunge has continued diversifying China’s protein sourcing by selling another Argentine soybean meal cargo, further signaling China’s efforts to reduce reliance on U.S. suppliers amidst trade tensions.

U.S. farmer sentiment continued to weaken, with Purdue University’s Ag Economy Barometer falling to 135 in July, down from 146 in June. The drop reflects declining income expectations and growing concerns about future profitability amid volatile prices and uncertain trade policies. The report highlights producers’ cautious stance despite recent gains in export volumes and some domestic demand recovery.