Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans – Futures Overview (Wednesday Opening)

Wheat

Wheat markets continued to grapple with shifting fundamentals and global news on Tuesday. The CBOT September 2025 wheat contract closed at $5.49½ per bushel, up 7¼ cents from the previous day, before sliding 2½ cents at Wednesday’s open. Gains were driven by optimism surrounding the newly announced U.S.–Japan trade deal, which includes $8 billion in Japanese agricultural imports and a 15% reciprocal tariff starting August 1. However, mixed field data from North Dakota’s crop tour showing spring wheat yields of 50 bushels per acre—below last year’s 52.5—added concern. On the U.S. domestic front, the winter wheat harvest is 73% complete, slightly ahead of average, while spring wheat ratings declined, pulling the Brugler500 index down 7 points to 338.

Corn

Corn futures stumbled on Tuesday, settling 4½ cents lower, with the Sep 2025 Corn contract closing at $3.99¼ per bushel. Overnight, prices slightly recovered, ticking up ¾ cent. A combination of steady rainfall across the Corn Belt and weak cash corn prices weighed on sentiment. Additionally, open interest climbed by 18,351 contracts, indicating increased selling pressure. ANEC revised down Brazil’s July corn export projection to 4.14 million tons, down from 4.6 million the previous week, while South Korea booked 269,000 metric tons of corn overnight. The new U.S.–Japan trade deal is also expected to bolster ag trade flow, particularly for U.S. rice and possibly corn.

Soybeans

Soybeans remain volatile amid cautious optimism. On Tuesday, August 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.10¼ per bushel, down 4¾ cents, but rebounded by 5 cents during early Wednesday trade. Open interest rose by 6,875 contracts, suggesting cautious buying ahead of key trade and weather updates. While Brazil's soybean export forecast was slightly trimmed to 12.11 million tons, U.S. soybean prices have been pressured by global competition and uncertainty around Chinese trade talks. Crude oil weakness weighed on soy oil, though soymeal held firmer, up to $3.30/ton. Secretary Bessent expects a delay in the U.S.-China tariff deadline set for August 12, which may further shape soybean demand dynamics.

Key Developments Impacting the Global Grain Market

A major jolt to global agricultural markets came late Tuesday when President Donald Trump announced a new U.S.–Japan trade agreement, introducing a 15% reciprocal tariff starting August 1. The deal is expected to bring $550 billion in investment into the U.S. and increase imports of cars, rice, and agricultural products, potentially redirecting Asia-Pacific ag trade flows.

Meanwhile, Russia trimmed its wheat harvest forecast to 88–90 million tons and lowered wheat export estimates to 43–44 million tons, down from previous projections. The Rostov region, one of Russia’s largest grain areas, saw drought-related losses of 30%. Despite regional challenges, the Russian Agriculture Ministry expects a total grain harvest of 135 million tons, helped by stronger output from Stavropol and central Russia.

In France, wheat harvest prospects have significantly improved. Argus Media now expects 33.4 million tons of soft wheat, up from just 25.6 million tons last year. The national yield is forecast at 7.44 tons/hectare, which exceeds the 2017–2023 average. Despite reduced planting areas due to adverse weather, the quality is reportedly high, with protein levels over 11%.

Across the EU, weather patterns are favorable. The EU-27 plus the UK are forecast to harvest 147.9 million tons of wheat for the 2025/26 season—up 1.2% from the previous projection. Above-average rainfall in Poland, Austria, and Germany has lifted yield expectations, while cooler temperatures in Central Europe are aiding crop development.

In North America, crop tours in North Dakota revealed that spring wheat yields are mixed. The Wheat Quality Council reported 50 bushels per acre in the northern part of the state, below both last year’s tour findings and the USDA’s estimate of 59 bushels. Still, consistent plant stands and light disease pressure may provide some optimism, particularly where crops are still green and benefiting from rain.

Weather remains a mixed bag across the U.S. Corn Belt. The Northern Plains are seeing favorable conditions with regular rain and moderate temperatures. However, the Central and Southern Plains are heating up, with forecasts suggesting a dry spell could soon impact corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, the Midwest is bracing for heat south of a lingering front and continued thunderstorms in the north.

In Brazil, ANEC reduced its corn export forecast to 4.14 million tons and soybean forecast to 12.11 million tons, both slightly below last week’s figures. However, soymeal exports are now seen at 2.4 million tons, up from 2.25 million previously, indicating stronger feed demand globally.

China’s Ministry of Agriculture is tackling pork overcapacity and price deflation by summoning major hog breeders to a forum on high-quality growth. With pork prices down 15% year-over-year, Beijing may introduce penalties for below-cost selling. Given China’s position as the world’s largest pork producer and feed consumer, the decisions made at this meeting will be critical for global corn and soybean demand.