Market Close Summary – Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

Wheat

Wheat markets reversed Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday, with all three U.S. exchanges finishing in the red. The CBOT September 2025 wheat contract closed at $5.40½ per bushel, down 9 cents. Kansas City (HRW) wheat was also weaker, dropping 9 to 10 cents, while Minneapolis (HRS) spring wheat fell 2 to 4 cents. The decline came despite ongoing speculation around the U.S.–Japan trade agreement, as traders assessed mixed signals from crop tours in North Dakota and slow momentum in export sales. Day 1 results from the Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour showed an average yield of 50 bushels per acre, below last year’s 52.5, and under USDA’s projection of 59 bpa.

Corn

Corn futures remained under pressure for most of Wednesday’s session, closing slightly lower. The September 2025 corn contract settled at $3.98½ per bushel, a loss of ¾ cent. The market showed little enthusiasm despite the U.S.–Japan trade deal announcement. Weak cash corn prices, steady to declining ethanol production, and ongoing rainfall across key growing regions limited upside. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported ethanol output fell by 9,000 barrels per day to 1.078 million bpd, while stocks rose to 24.444 million barrels. Export sales estimates for the upcoming USDA report were modest, and broader weather conditions remained supportive for crop development.

Soybeans

Soybean futures failed to hold earlier gains, closing the day with modest losses. The August 2025 soybean contract ended at $10.05¾ per bushel, down 4½ cents. Soymeal futures slipped by $1.80/ton, while soyoil saw modest gains. Uncertainty surrounding Chinese trade talks and upcoming EU discussions kept traders cautious. The U.S.–Japan deal included $8 billion in ag goods, including soybeans, but this did little to lift prices by the close. Rainfall in the Midwest was viewed as largely beneficial, although light totals in the Southern Plains sparked concerns in some areas. Export sales projections were modest, ranging between 100,000–350,000 MT for old crop and 250,000–500,000 MT for new crop beans.

Key Global Developments Driving the Grain Market

A central driver of market sentiment was U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with Japan. The deal, effective August 1, imposes a 15% reciprocal tariff and is expected to bring $550 billion in investments into the U.S. It opens trade flows for a variety of agricultural products, including soybeans and rice. The agreement is viewed as potentially realigning ag trade flows across the Asia-Pacific, although its direct impact on wheat remains unclear.

Meanwhile, Russia trimmed its wheat production forecast for 2025 to 88–90 million tons, and lowered export projections to 43–44 million tons, amid drought damage in key regions like Rostov. However, stronger-than-expected harvests in Stavropol and central Russia are expected to help offset the losses. Russia's overall grain output target remains at 135 million tons, with wheat still making up the bulk. Export volumes at the start of the new season were the lowest since 2008, raising concern about short-term supply flows.

In France, the wheat harvest is progressing faster than last year. According to Argus Media, the soft wheat crop could reach 33.4 million tons, a sharp increase from 25.6 million tons in 2024. Yields are estimated at 7.44 tons/hectare, and the overall quality appears strong, with protein levels exceeding 11%. Despite improved production, this remains slightly below multi-year averages due to adverse weather and reduced planting.

Across the European Union, weather conditions have been largely favorable. The EU-27 plus the UK are forecast to produce 147.9 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, a 1.2% increase from prior forecasts. Cooler temperatures and above-average rainfall in Central Europe, especially in Poland, Austria, and Germany, are contributing to improved yield potential.

In North Dakota, scouts on the Wheat Quality Council’s tour reported average spring wheat yields of 54.5 bpa in early stops. While slightly below the 2024 route average of 55.7 bpa, it still indicates solid potential, especially with consistent plant stands and minimal disease pressure. Additional rain across the region could further support yields in fields still in the green phase.

Brazil’s export forecasts for July show a slight dip. ANEC now expects corn exports at 4.14 million tons, down from 4.6 million the previous week. Soybean exports are forecast at 12.11 million tons, slightly lower than the 12.19 million seen previously, while soymeal exports were raised to 2.4 million tons, up from 2.25 million, suggesting stronger demand in feed markets.

China’s Ministry of Agriculture convened a high-level meeting with major hog breeders and feed producers to tackle deflation in pork prices and feed demand. With pork prices down 15% year-on-year, the country may introduce penalties for selling below cost. As the world’s largest pork and feed consumer, China’s internal policies could directly impact global demand for soybeans and corn.

Weather remains mixed across major growing regions. The Northern Plains continue to benefit from regular rain and moderate temperatures. In contrast, the Central and Southern Plains face rising temperatures and dryness, posing potential risks for corn and soybeans. The Midwest sees ongoing storm systems, while the Delta and Lower Mississippi are experiencing below-average rainfall, increasing crop stress in areas with sporadic moisture.