Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans – Morning Snapshot from Chicago (Thursday Opening)

Wheat

Chicago wheat futures opened Thursday with slight upward movement, as the September 2025 contract traded at $5.40½ per bushel, a modest ½ cent drop from the previous close. Despite an initial midweek slump that erased Tuesday’s gains, the market found minor support amid expectations for USDA’s export sales data, projected between 250,000 and 500,000 MT. Results from Day 2 of the spring wheat crop tour in North Dakota added further pressure, showing an average yield of 47.1 bpa, below both last year’s 53.7 bpa and USDA’s projected 59 bpa. The mixed signals highlight continued concern over production in key growing areas.

Corn

Corn futures on the CBOT for the September 2025 contract opened Thursday at $3.98½ per bushel, climbing 1¼ cents. The market remained lackluster throughout the week, reacting minimally to the U.S.–Japan trade deal. USDA ethanol data showed production dipped to 1.078 million barrels/day, while stocks surged by over 800,000 barrels, now at 24.444 million barrels. USDA export sales are estimated to fall between 100,000 and 800,000 MT for old crop, and 400,000 to 800,000 MT for new crop. Despite modest gains, pressure persists from weak cash prices and variable weather conditions across the U.S. Midwest.

Soybeans

August 2025 soybean contracts opened Thursday at $10.05¾ per bushel, up 2 cents. Futures had closed lower on Wednesday, down 4½ cents, weighed by cautious sentiment ahead of USDA’s report and China–EU trade uncertainties. Soymeal was weaker by $1.80/ton, while soyoil gained slightly. Export sales are expected between 100,000–350,000 MT for old crop and 250,000–500,000 MT for new crop beans. Additional gains are tempered by sufficient rainfall across most of the Corn Belt, though drier conditions in the Southern Plains and strong Argentine soymeal competition remain on traders’ radars.

Key Global Developments Shaping Today’s Grain Market Outlook

Australia Ends U.S. Beef Ban, Reigniting Trade Hopes

In a landmark decision, Australia lifted biosecurity restrictions on U.S. beef imports following a decade-long scientific and risk review. This move not only reduces trade tensions but is also likely to be used by Canberra to push for easing of U.S. tariffs on Australian steel, aluminium, and pharmaceuticals. The announcement aligns with President Trump’s push to correct trade imbalances and could revitalize U.S. agricultural exports across Asia-Pacific markets. The reopening is viewed as a symbolic and economic win, especially amid global food supply shifts.

North Dakota Wheat Tour Signals Weaker Yields

The Wheat Quality Council's Day 2 crop tour revealed spring wheat yields averaging 47.1 bpa, marking a 12% drop from last year’s second-day figures. The scouts observed healthy crops but noted sparse plant stands due to wider row spacing, limiting grain output. These findings suggest that despite scattered rainfall and low insect pressure, overall yield potential may fall short of USDA’s optimistic projections.

China Increases Soymeal Imports from Argentina Amid Trade Risk

Chinese buyers signed a second bulk soymeal purchase from Argentina—30,000 MT at $365/ton—highlighting a strategic shift in sourcing amid continued U.S.–China tensions. Argentine soymeal is cheaper than domestic supplies, pushing Chinese feed makers to stock up. This comes amid oversupply in the Chinese market and concerns about future disruptions. Imports are expected to stay high in Q3, with the outlook for Q4 depending heavily on trade negotiations with the U.S.

Brazil–China Railway Project Set to Reshape Soy Exports

A new 5,000-km Bi-Oceanic Railway, co-financed by China and Brazil, is set to connect ports across South America, providing a faster, cheaper route to export soybeans to China. Brazil currently ships 73% of its soy to China, and the new route will significantly reduce freight costs. The project is expected to increase Brazilian competitiveness in global markets, adding pressure on U.S. exports and raising concerns for long-term demand shifts.

Improved Soil Moisture Supports Argentine Wheat Prospects

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat production forecast was raised by 1% to 20.2 million tons, driven by improved moisture in the eastern Pampas. With plantings nearly complete, the favorable conditions in Buenos Aires province and across core areas hint at strong yield potential. This could add weight to global supply and pressure futures if harvest quality and volume hold up.

Canadian Wheat Outlook Stable Amid Late Rains

Canada’s wheat production forecast remains unchanged at 35 million tons, as late July rainfall helped alleviate earlier drought concerns. Rainfall ranging from 22–60 mm in the southern prairies has improved conditions for crops entering critical development stages, particularly spring wheat and canola. Weather stability in the coming weeks will be crucial for yield outcomes.

India Maintains Comfortable Wheat Supply, Steady Oil Imports

India’s food ministry declared that domestic wheat stocks are sufficient and there's no need for reserve releases. Meanwhile, edible oil imports are projected to remain steady at 16 million tons, led by palm oil and soybean oil demand during the upcoming festival season. Stable policy and supply outlooks from one of the world’s largest ag importers may help calm global volatility in oilseed markets.

Dicamba Herbicide Back in U.S. Spotlight

The U.S. EPA proposed reapproving dicamba for cotton and soybean use after its 2024 ban was overturned by court order. While environmental concerns linger, especially about chemical drift damaging neighboring crops, the regulatory greenlight could restore a key weed control option for U.S. soybean farmers. Market participants are watching whether this regulatory shift could boost yields and production, ultimately influencing future pricing and acreage decisions.